{"id":91441,"date":"2025-11-26T14:56:10","date_gmt":"2025-11-26T11:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91441"},"modified":"2025-11-26T15:00:31","modified_gmt":"2025-11-26T12:00:31","slug":"expert-identifies-three-signals-for-bitcoins-price-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/expert-identifies-three-signals-for-bitcoins-price-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert Identifies Three Signals for Bitcoin&#8217;s Price Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Major players anticipate Bitcoin&#8217;s rise to $100,000-$118,000 but doubt its breakthrough beyond $120,000 soon, according to data from the Deribit derivatives exchange.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Three huge blocks printed on Deribit today via Paradigm, total of 20K BTC notional!<\/p>\n<p>Trader lifted a long-dated 100k\/106k\/112k\/118k call condor for Dec \u201925. Signal is clear: a structured bullish view \u2014 expecting BTC to reach the 100\u2013118k zone, not explode past it.<\/p>\n<p>Trade: BTC 26\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/zSyFgNs7dt\">pic.twitter.com\/zSyFgNs7dt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DeribitOfficial\/status\/1992994563196325948?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Three block trades with a notional volume of approximately 20,000 BTC were recorded on the platform. A trader purchased a long-dated call condor with strikes at $100,000, $106,000, $112,000, and $118,000 for December.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The signal is clear: a structured bullish view \u2014 expecting Bitcoin to reach the $100,000-$118,000 zone, but not break through it,&#8221; the publication states.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When is the Bottom? <\/h2>\n<p>Jake Ostrowski, an OTC trader at market maker Wintermute, noted that the market has lost confidence in the &#8220;Santa rally&#8221; scenario by year-end.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The previously consensus view of a year-end &#8220;santa rally&#8221; has been priced out the markets. Calls continue to roll down, topside bets are being capped < ATHs &#038; put skew remains bid alongside IV in short-dated contracts. \n\nFor those looking to time a genuine low, the term structure\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SOvELXSjlt\">https:\/\/t.co\/SOvELXSjlt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Jake O (@JO_wintermute) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JO_wintermute\/status\/1993316131340157426?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 25, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Call options continue to cheapen on roll-downs, growth bets are capped below all-time highs, and the put skew remains expensive amid high implied volatility in short-dated contracts,&#8221; he explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to the expert, the main signal <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/glassnode-refutes-bitcoins-bottoming-out\">for reaching a local bottom<\/a> will be the normalization of the term structure. He believes it is necessary to wait for the convergence of three factors:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Reduced anxiety \u2014 a drop in implied volatility.<\/li>\n<li>Return to calm \u2014 a shift to &#8220;contango,&#8221; where long-term contracts are more expensive than short-term ones.<\/li>\n<li>Alignment of sentiment \u2014 a shift in the ratio of call and put prices back to neutral values.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Analysts at Greeks.live also do not expect an improvement in market conditions in December.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Last week&#8217;s crypto market witnessed a sharp downtrend, with Bitcoin prices nearing $80,000 on Friday, plunging the market into extreme panic. However, following dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve, which helped stabilize the market, conditions eased over the weekend. Despite\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/9o7lw0ZBPJ\">pic.twitter.com\/9o7lw0ZBPJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GreeksLive\/status\/1992991410338046264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 24, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The options market continues to indicate persistent tension, despite the recovery of digital gold after falling to $80,000.<\/p>\n<p>A key metric \u2014 implied volatility \u2014 remains at abnormally high levels. A spike in this indicator suggests that players expect more drastic fluctuations and also signals increased uncertainty or fear.<\/p>\n<p>Experts emphasized that the psychological mark of $100,000 remains critically important for options traders.<\/p>\n<p>Changes are also noticeable in the imbalance indicator: contrary to the correction, it did not continue moving in a bearish direction. On the contrary, recovery was recorded for some option expiration dates, experts stated.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Market expectations for a rebound have strengthened \u2014 mainly due to comments from the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System of the USA\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span>, which increased the likelihood of a rate cut. This spurred growth in the US stock markets,&#8221; they added.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, supporting factors for cryptocurrencies are weakening \u2014 corporate treasury activity has slowed, and <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/standard-chartered-bitcoin-correction-has-run-its-course\">ETFs are showing outflows<\/a>. According to Greeks.live, under such conditions, December is unlikely to bring significant improvement in sentiment.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The key moment will be the Fed&#8217;s decision on interest rates in mid-month \u2014 it will determine the market&#8217;s future,&#8221; the specialists concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,900. Over the past 24 hours, its price has decreased by 0.6%, and over the week \u2014 by 4.8%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-ea15eabc0eead7ea-10550795598534681-1024x601.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-270524\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-ea15eabc0eead7ea-10550795598534681-1024x601.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-ea15eabc0eead7ea-10550795598534681-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-ea15eabc0eead7ea-10550795598534681-768x450.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-ea15eabc0eead7ea-10550795598534681-1536x901.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-ea15eabc0eead7ea-10550795598534681.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/atJ4mYHE\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In November, the ratio of long to short positions on the first cryptocurrency on Binance <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-long-positions-surge-as-traders-anticipate-rebound\">exceeded 3.8<\/a>, indicating traders&#8217; belief in a Bitcoin rebound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Major players anticipate Bitcoin&#8217;s rise to $100,000-$118,000 but doubt its breakthrough beyond $120,000 soon.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91442,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Major players anticipate Bitcoin's rise to $100,000-$118,000 but doubt its breakthrough beyond $120,000 soon.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1267,1138],"class_list":["post-91441","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-trading","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"210","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Major players anticipate Bitcoin's rise to $100,000-$118,000 but doubt its breakthrough beyond $120,000 soon.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91441","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91441"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91441\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91443,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91441\/revisions\/91443"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91442"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91441"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91441"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91441"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}