{"id":91598,"date":"2025-12-01T12:43:21","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T09:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91598"},"modified":"2025-12-02T17:22:15","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T14:22:15","slug":"economist-compares-bitcoins-current-trends-to-2022-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/economist-compares-bitcoins-current-trends-to-2022-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Economist Compares Bitcoin&#8217;s Current Trends to 2022 Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Economist Timothy Peterson has highlighted a concerning similarity in the price trends of the digital asset in the latter half of this year with the bearish phase of the previous cycle.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">2H2025 Bitcoin is the same as 2H2022 Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p>80% daily correlation.<\/p>\n<p>98% monthly correlation. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FA51kosEb4\">pic.twitter.com\/FA51kosEb4<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredvalue\/status\/1994812871767724452?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to his analysis, the correlation of quotes on the daily chart is 80%, while on the monthly timeframe it has reached 98%. The leading cryptocurrency has fallen by 31.7% from its historical highs, dashing investors&#8217; hopes for a continued bull rally by year-end.<\/p>\n<p>Peterson also noted that the past November ranked among the worst 10% of months in terms of price dynamics since 2015.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin in November: <br \/>It feels bad because it is bad.<br \/>This month ranks in the bottom 10% of daily price paths since 2015. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/cgDE7inz2U\">pic.twitter.com\/cgDE7inz2U<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nsquaredvalue\/status\/1991539284642238732?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 20, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inflows into US Equity Funds Reach $900 Billion<\/h2>\n<p>Since November 2024, capital inflows into US equity funds have totaled $900 billion, with $450 billion invested by investors over the past five months. This is reported by The Kobeissi Letter, citing Bloomberg and JPMorgan data.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">US equities are experiencing massive inflows:<\/p>\n<p>Investors have poured +$900 billion into US equity funds since November 2024, according to JPMorgan.<\/p>\n<p>Inflows accelerated in May and have reached +$450 billion over the last 5 months.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, net inflows into fixed income asset\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r0lhcMXd4O\">pic.twitter.com\/r0lhcMXd4O<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KobeissiLetter\/status\/1994861737284440300?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 29, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In comparison, other asset classes have collectively attracted only $100 billion. The current interest in equities surpasses the demand for all other financial instruments combined.<\/p>\n<p>The cryptocurrency market is also experiencing a revival. Statistics on US spot <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETFs<\/a> based on Bitcoin and Ethereum indicate a potential end to the period of institutional sell-offs.<\/p>\n<p>By the end of Thanksgiving week, inflows into Bitcoin instruments reached $70.05 billion.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a3fc73f93462e874-10974663636829097.webp\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-12-01 115045\" class=\"wp-image-270821\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ethereum-based funds attracted $312.62 million over the same period.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-cee2fe58d7f38bee-10974689119812800.webp\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2025-12-01 115122\" class=\"wp-image-270822\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-eth-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin&#8217;s Decline and Bank of Japan&#8217;s Policy<\/h2>\n<p>BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes linked <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-slips-below-85500\">Bitcoin&#8217;s price decline<\/a> to expectations of a key rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) as early as December.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> dumped cause BOJ put Dec rate hike in play. USDJPY 155-160 makes BOJ hawkish. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/lG47l5cbCA\">pic.twitter.com\/lG47l5cbCA<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes\/status\/1995368658940612945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to the expert, an exchange rate in the range of 155-160 yen per dollar makes the Japanese regulator&#8217;s stance more aggressive.<\/p>\n<p>Hayes&#8217;s concerns are confirmed by the dynamics of the debt market. The yield on Japan&#8217;s two-year government bonds rose to 1%, reaching its highest level since 2008.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">According to The Japan Times, Japan\u2019s two-year government bond yield rose to 1%, the highest since 2008, signaling market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is nearing a rate hike. The five-year and ten-year yields climbed to 1.35% and 1.845%, respectively, while the yen\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WuBlockchain\/status\/1995346322656997745?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The yields on five-year and ten-year bonds rose to 1.35% and 1.845%, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>Amid this, the yen strengthened by 0.4% to 155.49 per dollar.<\/p>\n<p>The market estimates the probability of a rate hike at the December meeting at 76%. For January, this figure exceeds 90%.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Open Interest Volume<\/h2>\n<p>Since October 6, the total open interest volume in Bitcoin has halved\u2014approximately by $20 billion. Analyst Darkfost drew attention to this.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u274c Leveraged positions continue to get liquidated or are being closed voluntarily.\u2070This period of uncertainty isn\u2019t encouraging traders to increase their exposure to risk.<\/p>\n<p>Right now we\u2019re facing more of a risk-off attitude, which makes perfect sense given the current\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/7Rn3ZchASH\">pic.twitter.com\/7Rn3ZchASH<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/1995416226399396303?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to him, traders are massively closing leveraged positions or facing forced liquidations. Market participants are avoiding risks amid overall uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>The expert described the event as historic:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis is the largest drop in such a short time in the current cycle and in the entire history of Bitcoin since the emergence of the derivatives market.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Darkfost added that the derivatives market is currently the main driver of the first cryptocurrency&#8217;s price.<\/p>\n<p>On December 1, digital gold quotes <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-slips-below-85500\">fell<\/a> below $85,500.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Economist Timothy Peterson has highlighted a concerning similarity in the price trends of the digital asset in the latter half of this year with the bearish phase of the previous cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91040,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Economist Timothy Peterson highlights Bitcoin's concerning trend similarities with 2022.","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,2153,18,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-91598","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"207","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Economist Timothy Peterson highlights Bitcoin's concerning trend similarities with 2022.","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91598","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91598"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91598\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91599,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91598\/revisions\/91599"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91040"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91598"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91598"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91598"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}