{"id":91611,"date":"2025-12-01T15:44:06","date_gmt":"2025-12-01T12:44:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91611"},"modified":"2025-12-01T15:47:21","modified_gmt":"2025-12-01T12:47:21","slug":"analysts-say-bitcoin-has-entered-the-late-most-fragile-phase-of-the-cycle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-say-bitcoin-has-entered-the-late-most-fragile-phase-of-the-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts say bitcoin has entered the late, most fragile phase of the cycle"},"content":{"rendered":"

Large holders of the leading cryptocurrency have slowed accumulation, while smaller investors have been buying the dip. BRN analysts called this \u201ca classic late-cycle picture,\u201d marked by heightened \u201cfragility,\u201d reports The Block<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Overnight on December 1, bitcoin fell below $85,500<\/a> after recovering to $91,000. At the time of writing, it trades around $86,400.<\/p>\n

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Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The sector\u2019s market capitalisation slumped by $114bn to $3trn. Liquidations reached $638m, with most from longs\u2014$569m.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Source: CoinGlass<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

BRN\u2019s head of research, Timothy Missir, described the move as a classic \u201cflush\u201d, tied to liquidity and positioning.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe market was not signalling a regime change \u2014 it was signalling stress,\u201d the expert noted.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

He said realised losses by short-term holders spiked during the sell-off, indicating an \u201cemotional purge\u201d. Exchange balances and inflows of stablecoins<\/a> still point to buying power and potential sell-side liquidity.\u00a0<\/p>\n

What drove the correction?\u00a0<\/h2>\n

The negative impulse originated in Asia. The night-time slide was a reaction to a string of adverse developments.<\/p>\n

Analysts at QCP Capital noted<\/a> that bitcoin\u2019s drop was sparked by hawkish rhetoric from Bank of Japan governor Kazuo Ueda. His comments pushed two-year Japanese bond yields toward 1%, increasing the likelihood of a December rate hike.<\/p>\n

Weak Chinese data compounded matters: the non-manufacturing purchasing managers\u2019 index \u201ccontracted\u201d for the first time in nearly three years. That intensified concerns about regional demand and the availability of global liquidity.<\/p>\n

Sentiment also deteriorated after a statement<\/a> by Strategy\u2019s CEO Phong Le about a potential sale of bitcoin if the firm\u2019s mNAV falls below 1. As of writing, it has 649,870 BTC worth $55.9bn under management.\u00a0<\/p>\n

According to QCP, the comments \u201ctriggered panic and forced liquidations of leveraged positions\u201d ahead of a critical December period for the company\u2019s index rebalancing.<\/p>\n

Contradictions<\/h2>\n

The current correction raises questions among analysts. Despite rising odds of a Fed rate cut and a return of inflows into spot bitcoin ETFs<\/a>, market conditions remain mixed.<\/p>\n

ETF inflows are especially notable against a record $3.5bn outflow in November \u2014 the worst since February.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Flows into and out of spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: SoSoValue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The market ignored the positive signals. In QCP\u2019s view, the pullback after a bounce from local lows was to be expected:\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cThe key question now is whether bitcoin can hold prior lows amid rising investor caution?\u201d\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

What next?\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Traders and investors are focused on US macro data: the PMI<\/span>, ADP<\/span> and JOLTS<\/span> on the labour market, as well as the key PCE<\/span> for inflation. According to Missir, these will determine whether the December 1 drop was \u201ca capitulation moment or the start of a deeper downtrend.\u201d\u00a0<\/p>\n

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\u201cExpect elevated volatility with sharp swings both ways. For stability to return, bitcoin must not only hold above $90,000, but also see confirmation in the form of sustained ETF inflows and positive on-chain metrics,\u201d the analyst forecast.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

David Brickell and Chris Mills of London Crypto Club warned<\/a> traders about \u201cchoppy, unbounded ranges\u201d in December. Liquidity stress \u201cstill lurks in the background,\u201d they said.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone reaffirmed<\/a> a $50,000 target, noting that current pressure on bitcoin could lead to a deeper correction.<\/p>\n

In his view, further declines could be driven by a combination of factors:\u00a0<\/p>\n