{"id":91690,"date":"2025-12-02T19:03:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T16:03:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91690"},"modified":"2025-12-03T10:21:37","modified_gmt":"2025-12-03T07:21:37","slug":"grayscale-says-bitcoin-could-defy-four-year-cycles","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/grayscale-says-bitcoin-could-defy-four-year-cycles\/","title":{"rendered":"Grayscale: Bitcoin Could Climb Despite 4-Year Cycle Patterns"},"content":{"rendered":"

The four-year-cycle thesis has broken down, giving Bitcoin a chance to set new highs in 2026, according to a Grayscale<\/a> report.<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Source: Grayscale.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bitcoin has been in a deep correction since October, but that does not imply the start of a multi\u2011year bear market, the firm\u2019s analysts argue. Drawdowns of 25% or more are common in bull markets and are not necessarily a sign of their end.<\/p>\n

To support the claim that crypto no longer follows \u201cfour\u2011year principles\u201d, analysts offered three arguments.<\/p>\n

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  1. Unlike previous cycles, there has been no parabolic rise in bitcoin\u2019s price that would point to an overbought market.<\/li>\n
  2. The industry\u2019s structure has changed: new capital is mainly entering via ETP<\/span>s and treasury companies rather than retail exchanges.<\/li>\n
  3. The overall macroeconomic backdrop remains supportive for riskier cryptoassets.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
    \"image\"
    Bitcoin put\u2013call ratio. Source: Grayscale.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    \u201cThere are already some signs that bitcoin and other coins may have bottomed. For example, the skew toward put options on BTC is very high, especially for three\u2011 and six\u2011month positions. This means investors have already actively hedged downside risks. The largest DAT<\/span> also trade at a discount to the value of the cryptocurrency on their balance sheets, which may also indicate modest speculative positioning (often a precursor to a recovery),\u201d Grayscale noted.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

    However, some indicators still point to \u201ccool\u201d demand:<\/p>\n