{"id":91736,"date":"2025-12-03T17:55:29","date_gmt":"2025-12-03T14:55:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91736"},"modified":"2025-12-04T06:41:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T03:41:22","slug":"traders-put-the-chance-of-a-crypto-winter-at-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/traders-put-the-chance-of-a-crypto-winter-at-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders Price &#8220;Cryptowinter&#8221; Risk at 7%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Traders are sceptical that a prolonged slump is imminent in crypto. On prediction market Myriad, the odds <a href=\"https:\/\/myriad.markets\/markets\/crypto-winter-is-coming\">stand<\/a> at 6.9%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"611\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0181c7897f9771f7-23261978214346-1024x611.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271055\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0181c7897f9771f7-23261978214346-1024x611.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0181c7897f9771f7-23261978214346-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0181c7897f9771f7-23261978214346-768x458.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0181c7897f9771f7-23261978214346-1536x916.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0181c7897f9771f7-23261978214346.png 1660w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Myriad.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Myriad deems a protracted downtrend to have begun if three of four conditions are met:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin falls to $35,000;<\/li>\n<li>Ethereum trades at $1,000;<\/li>\n<li>Strategy shares hit $50;<\/li>\n<li>total market capitalisation drops to $350bn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The previous deep freeze lasted from late 2021 to 2023. It was triggered by the bursting of the COVID-era bull run, and compounded by the collapses of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/terras-death-spiral-how-and-why-luna-and-ust-collapsed\">Terra\/Luna<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/greed-and-recklessness-why-the-ftx-collapse-is-being-likened-to-the-2008-crisis\">FTX<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Digital gold plunged by roughly 75% \u2014 from an all-time high near $69,000 to $16,000.<\/p>\n<p>As Bitcoin slid <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-dismiss-talk-of-bitcoin-plunging-to-35000\">to $85,000<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-say-bitcoin-has-entered-the-late-most-fragile-phase-of-the-cycle\">news from Asia<\/a>, the probability of a \u201ccrypto winter\u201d was put at 30%. A rebound <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-rebounds-above-93000\">above $93,000<\/a> helped steady sentiment.<\/p>\n<p>After the 10\u201311 October rout, when liquidations hit a record $19bn, many <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-options-signal-bearish-market-shift\">said<\/a> a bear market had begun.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, economist Timothy Peterson <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/economist-compares-bitcoins-current-trends-to-2022-bear-market\">noted<\/a> an alarming resemblance between Bitcoin\u2019s path in the second half of this year and the bear phase in the prior cycle.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Faint glimmers of optimism<\/h2>\n<p>Early December has been difficult for crypto. On Monday, prices slumped after Strategy CEO Phong Le said the firm could sell bitcoins if <span data-descr=\"net asset value multiplier\" class=\"old_tooltip\">mNAV<\/span> fell below 1.<\/p>\n<p>Later the company <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/strategy-builds-1-44bn-reserve-to-fund-dividends\">announced<\/a> a $1.4bn reserve for \u201cstable and continuous\u201d dividend payments to shareholders. Some saw the move as a bearish signal.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Strategy is preparing for a full BEAR market, and you are out here making price bottom calls. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tiPHkdqOQg\">pic.twitter.com\/tiPHkdqOQg<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jjcmoreno\/status\/1995522368962494665?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 1, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On Tuesday, however, the mood flipped. Two factors helped lift prices:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>SEC chairman Paul Atkins <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2025\/12\/02\/sec-chairman-paul-atkins-on-regulations-we-need-to-make-sure-our-rulebook-is-fit-for-purpose.html\">pledged<\/a> to unveil details of an \u201cinnovation exemption\u201d for crypto firms.<\/li>\n<li>Vanguard Group <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/vanguard-to-grant-clients-access-to-bitcoin-etfs\">allowed<\/a> trading on its platform of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETFs<\/a> and other funds focused on digital assets.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, also noted in comments to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-03\/bitcoin-price-btc-hits-two-week-high-as-crypto-sentiment-remains-fragile\">Bloomberg<\/a> that rising risk appetite in equities supported the rebound. US stock futures are edging higher as investors expect the <span data-descr=\"US Securities and Exchange Commission\" class=\"old_tooltip\">SEC<\/span> to cut the policy rate at the 10 December meeting. <\/p>\n<p>According to FxPro\u2019s Alex Kuptsikevich, the developments created \u201ca set of vital signs of an emerging uptrend\u201d. Caution persists, however.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWe don\u2019t see a ton of buyers on the way up. Sentiment is still fragile,\u201d emphasised Sean McNulty, head of derivatives at FalconX.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He pointed to flows in spot bitcoin ETFs, which took in $59m in the latest session. McNulty called the sum \u201cweak\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis rebound is no more than a technical bounce. However, bitcoin can regain some momentum. Now is an opportune moment for those who have not yet deployed positions to consider entering the market,\u201d added QCP Group CEO Melvin Deng.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency trades around $93,400.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"602\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-107d9b73c56afce8-23342871154683-1024x602.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271056\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-107d9b73c56afce8-23342871154683-1024x602.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-107d9b73c56afce8-23342871154683-300x176.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-107d9b73c56afce8-23342871154683-768x451.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-107d9b73c56afce8-23342871154683-1536x902.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-107d9b73c56afce8-23342871154683.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/atJ4mYHE\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A boom in crypto M&#038;A<\/h2>\n<p>Bloomberg also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2025-12-03\/crypto-deals-hit-a-record-8-6-billion-as-market-strains-grow\">reported<\/a> that in 2025 mergers and acquisitions (M&amp;A) in digital assets hit a record $8.6bn, exceeding the combined total of the previous four years.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"649\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dce34a707b530217-23356473945733-1024x649.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271057\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dce34a707b530217-23356473945733-1024x649.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dce34a707b530217-23356473945733-300x190.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dce34a707b530217-23356473945733-768x486.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-dce34a707b530217-23356473945733.png 1244w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Bloomberg.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cLarge crypto firms have become much more active in acquisitions. Lower rates, regulatory clarity and a bull market earlier in the year switched them into aggressive growth mode,\u201d said PitchBook analyst Ben Riccio.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The surge was driven by deals involving exchanges Coinbase and Kraken, as well as blockchain firm Ripple Labs. But activity peaked before the October crash, which erased more than $1trn in market value.<\/p>\n<p>Among the year\u2019s key acquisitions:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coinbase <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/coinbase-completes-acquisition-of-deribit\">bought<\/a> options exchange Deribit for $2.9bn;<\/li>\n<li>Kraken <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/kraken-agrees-to-acquire-ninjatrader-for-1-5-billion\">acquired<\/a> retail futures platform NinjaTrader for $1.5bn;<\/li>\n<li>Ripple <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/ripple-completes-1-25-billion-acquisition-of-prime-broker-hidden-road\">acquired<\/a> prime broker Hidden Road for $1.25bn.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>These deals helped 2025 surpass the previous sector record set in 2021 ($4.6bn). According to PitchBook, Coinbase is the clear leader in M&amp;A activity. Since 2020 the exchange has participated in 24 deals, eight of them in the past 12 months.<\/p>\n<p>Deal count also set a record in 2025 \u2014 133, versus 107 in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The boom was aided by the policies of US President Donald Trump\u2019s administration, which fuelled euphoria and soaring prices. In October bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-surge-to-126000-revitalises-retail-investors\">hit<\/a> an all-time high above $126,000, after which <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday-2\">a crash followed<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Since October, sentiment has turned. The bear trend has weighed on listed firms across the sector. Coinbase has shed a fifth of its market value this quarter, while shares of American Bitcoin, a miner linked to the Trump family, have slumped 70%.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIt remains to be seen how deal activity and valuations change in the coming months if cryptoasset prices stay under pressure. We are already hearing about some agreements being cancelled due to market uncertainty,\u201d the specialists at Architect concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, Grayscale analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/grayscale-says-bitcoin-could-defy-four-year-cycles\">suggested<\/a> bitcoin could rise despite the four-year cycles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Traders are sceptical about a prolonged crypto slump: on Myriad the odds stand at 6.9%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91737,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Myriad bettors put the chance of a new crypto winter at 6.9%.","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1138,1595],"class_list":["post-91736","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-opinions","tag-prediction-markets"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"104","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Myriad bettors put the chance of a new crypto winter at 6.9%.","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91736","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91736"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91736\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91742,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91736\/revisions\/91742"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91737"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91736"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91736"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91736"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}