{"id":91802,"date":"2025-12-04T12:16:00","date_gmt":"2025-12-04T09:16:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91802"},"modified":"2025-12-04T12:57:53","modified_gmt":"2025-12-04T09:57:53","slug":"glassnode-spots-echoes-of-early-2022-in-bitcoins-market-structure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/glassnode-spots-echoes-of-early-2022-in-bitcoins-market-structure\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Current Pattern Mirrors 2022 Dynamics, Glassnode Analysts Say"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The overall market structure increasingly resembles the first quarter of 2022, which preceded a deep correction, Glassnode analysts said.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Echoes of Early 2022<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility &#038; cautious positioning. <\/p>\n<p>Read the full\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DYxi9c9zWe\">pic.twitter.com\/DYxi9c9zWe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/1996323045166981220?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 3, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The resemblance is corroborated by a <span data-descr=\"Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Supply Quantiles Cost Basis model<\/span>, which tracks the entry price of the largest coin clusters. Since mid-November bitcoin has fallen below the 0.75-quantile (around $96,100), leaving roughly a quarter of the supply underwater.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-844e279f344df42c-55685277476594-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271094\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-844e279f344df42c-55685277476594-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-844e279f344df42c-55685277476594-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-844e279f344df42c-55685277476594-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-844e279f344df42c-55685277476594-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-844e279f344df42c-55685277476594.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This has created a highly unstable equilibrium. On the one hand, there is a risk of capitulation by large holders; on the other, a chance that sellers are exhausted and a bottom forms.<\/p>\n<p>Market resilience will remain in doubt until the price can hold above the 0.85-quantile (~$106,200), which now acts as critical resistance. Until then, any negative macro event could easily disrupt the &#8220;fragile balance&#8221;.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pressure is rising, but there is a backstop<\/h2>\n<p>The share of coins at a loss points to heavy pressure. The seven-day moving average reached 7.1m BTC last week, the highest since September 2023. Investors\u2019 unrealised losses are now at their highest level of the two-year bull market.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-18eba6d685090a84-55705765808810-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271095\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-18eba6d685090a84-55705765808810-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-18eba6d685090a84-55705765808810-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-18eba6d685090a84-55705765808810-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-18eba6d685090a84-55705765808810-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-18eba6d685090a84-55705765808810.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The current range of underwater supply (5\u20137m BTC) is almost identical to early 2022, when the market entered a prolonged sideways phase.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the grim parallel, one important difference remains: a positive net inflow of capital. <span data-descr=\"Net Change in Realized Cap\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Net Change in Realized Cap<\/span> has increased by $8.69bn per month.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c512d769cb470f5-55731831920761-1024x576.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271096\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c512d769cb470f5-55731831920761-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c512d769cb470f5-55731831920761-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c512d769cb470f5-55731831920761-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c512d769cb470f5-55731831920761-1536x864.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c512d769cb470f5-55731831920761.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Although below the summer peak of $64.3bn, this helps explain why the price is finding support at key levels and holding above $90,000, the experts noted.<\/p>\n<p>Long-term investor activity underscores a mixed picture. The <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\">SOPR<\/a> index (30-day average) has fallen but remains above 1 (1.43). This implies they are still realising profits.<\/p>\n<p>However, profit margins are narrowing, mirroring early 2022 ahead of a lengthy range-bound phase.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Although demand momentum is relatively stronger than in early 2022, liquidity continues to decline, making it crucial for bulls to hold above the True Market Mean until a new wave of demand arrives,&#8221; the analysts noted.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An unpopular view<\/h2>\n<p>Amid active institutional participation, many in the crypto community have <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/grayscale-says-bitcoin-could-defy-four-year-cycles\">questioned<\/a> the relevance of bitcoin\u2019s cycle theory, which holds that the cryptocurrency rises for three years and falls for one.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Axel Adler Jr still regards this pattern as the most reliable.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We\u2019ve spent the last three years rising from $16K to $125K without COVID-level shocks, Luna\/FTX-scale collapses and yet the talk about the death of the four-year cycle keeps getting louder. It\u2019s amusing how easily people ignore Bitcoin\u2019s most reliable pattern: three years up, one\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OXIAc8lsFi\">pic.twitter.com\/OXIAc8lsFi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/1996260382319522005?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 3, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;We\u2019ve spent the last three years rising from $16,000 to $125,000 without COVID-level shocks, collapses on the scale of <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/terras-death-spiral-how-and-why-luna-and-ust-collapsed\"><em>Luna<\/em><\/a><em>\/<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/greed-and-recklessness-why-the-ftx-collapse-is-being-likened-to-the-2008-crisis\"><em>FTX<\/em><\/a><em>, and yet the talk about the death of the four-year cycle keeps getting louder. It\u2019s amusing how easily people ignore Bitcoin\u2019s most reliable pattern: three years up, one year down, unfailingly since 2009,&#8221; he wrote.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In his view, institutional demand remains important but does not change the fundamental rhythm of digital gold.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;BlackRock\u2019s clients do not buy at any price; they go through the same emotions: <span data-descr=\"Fear of Missing Out \u2014 'fear of missing out'\" class=\"old_tooltip\">FOMO<\/span>, fear and capitulation, as everyone else. And the sooner the market accepts this, the lower the odds of missing the next big move,&#8221; the expert noted.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Growth drivers<\/h2>\n<p>K33 analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/k33.com\/research\/articles\/zooming-in-rather-than-out\">highlighted<\/a> three dominant \u201cfear narratives\u201d that have lately filled the media. According to the firm\u2019s head of research, Vetle Lunde, these issues are either premature or overstated.<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Quantum threat<\/strong>. Theoretically about 6.8m BTC could become vulnerable if sufficiently powerful quantum computers emerge. However, timelines for such technologies remain undefined.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Forced sales at Strategy<\/strong>. Although management has not ruled out the possibility of selling bitcoins, there are no signs of preparations to sell.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tether reserve concerns<\/strong>. The issuer\u2019s financials point the other way.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Countering the short-term worries, the experts pointed to several emerging medium-term factors that could form a strong foundation for growth.<\/p>\n<p>By February 2026, US regulators are due to issue <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-surges-past-117000-following-trumps-executive-order-on-pension-plans\">new rules<\/a> for 401(k) retirement savings, potentially opening a $9trn market to bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>In the coming months, Congress is also expected to pass a market-structure bill \u2014 the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/us-house-passes-three-cryptocurrency-bills\">CLARITY Act<\/a>. This would accelerate asset tokenisation and could legitimise using the first cryptocurrency as collateral in the banking system.<\/p>\n<p>A shift in the rhetoric of the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> could also favour digital assets. The leading candidate for the post of the new chair is crypto-friendly Kevin Hassett.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $93,100. Over the past 24 hours the asset has risen by 0.6%, and by 2.1% over the week.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"603\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4b8ef05e4e41ef02-55816831904244-1024x603.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271097\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4b8ef05e4e41ef02-55816831904244-1024x603.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4b8ef05e4e41ef02-55816831904244-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4b8ef05e4e41ef02-55816831904244-768x452.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4b8ef05e4e41ef02-55816831904244-1536x905.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4b8ef05e4e41ef02-55816831904244.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/atJ4mYHE\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier, Glassnode and Fanara Digital analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-observe-decline-in-bitcoin-volatility\">reported<\/a> a decline in the first cryptocurrency\u2019s volatility.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Glassnode says bitcoin now mirrors early 2022, with a quarter of supply underwater and weakening demand, even as capital inflows remain positive.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91803,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Glassnode sees echoes of early 2022 in bitcoin as 25% of supply sits at a loss.","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1273,1268],"class_list":["post-91802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-glassnode","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"133","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Glassnode sees echoes of early 2022 in bitcoin as 25% of supply sits at a loss.","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91802"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91802\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91805,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91802\/revisions\/91805"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91803"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}