{"id":91868,"date":"2025-12-05T10:36:27","date_gmt":"2025-12-05T07:36:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=91868"},"modified":"2025-12-05T12:07:08","modified_gmt":"2025-12-05T09:07:08","slug":"jpmorgan-links-bitcoins-outlook-to-strategys-balance-sheet-resilience","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/jpmorgan-links-bitcoins-outlook-to-strategys-balance-sheet-resilience\/","title":{"rendered":"JPMorgan: Bitcoin&#8217;s Outlook Tied to Financial Health of Strategy"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The robustness of Strategy\u2019s balance sheet and the company\u2019s ability to avoid selling the first cryptocurrency matter more for the asset\u2019s short-term price than miner pressure, JPMorgan analysts conclude, reports <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/381442\/jpmorgan-strategy-bitcoin-price-outlook\">The Block<\/a>.  <\/p>\n<p>Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou highlighted two main sources of pressure on bitcoin\u2019s price: <\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>a drop in <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-hashrate-and-mining-difficulty-in-cryptocurrencies\">hashrate<\/a> and mining difficulty in the digital-gold network due to <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/china-reaffirms-cryptocurrencys-illegal-status\">tightening<\/a> bans in China after a <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/chinas-share-in-bitcoin-mining-surpasses-14\">surge<\/a> in private mining and the exit of inefficient players from the country;<\/li>\n<li>market jitters following <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/strategy-builds-1-44bn-reserve-to-fund-dividends\">statements<\/a> by Strategy\u2019s chief executive, Phong Le. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>A falling hashrate typically boosts miners\u2019 revenues in the short term\u2014until the next difficulty adjustment. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near the cost of production\u2014$92,000. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"605\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0afd2713eeeb98dd-136292821897754-1024x605.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271162\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0afd2713eeeb98dd-136292821897754-1024x605.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0afd2713eeeb98dd-136292821897754-300x177.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0afd2713eeeb98dd-136292821897754-768x454.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0afd2713eeeb98dd-136292821897754-1536x907.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0afd2713eeeb98dd-136292821897754.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u00abAs profitability shrinks, some high-cost miners in recent weeks have been forced to sell bitcoins,\u00bb the experts noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, their actions are not the decisive factor for the cryptocurrency\u2019s next move. The company\u2019s financial health carries far more weight, the analysts say. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A margin of safety<\/h2>\n<p>JPMorgan named the mNAV ratio as the key indicator of the resilience of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/michael-saylor-the-microstrategy-founders-biography-and-views\">Michael Saylor<\/a>\u2019s company. The multiple reflects the firm\u2019s market value relative to its bitcoin reserves. Despite a sharp decline in the second half of the year, it remains at 1.13.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u00abIf the value stays above 1 and Strategy avoids selling bitcoins, that will reassure the market, and the worst for the cryptocurrency\u2019s price is likely behind it,\u00bb the analysts believe.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Another sign of stability is the creation of a $1.44bn reserve. The bank estimates these funds can cover two years of dividend and interest obligations to shareholders, eliminating the risk of forced sales of digital assets \u201cin the foreseeable future\u201d. <\/p>\n<p>Strategy has slowed the pace of purchases but continued to add to its bitcoin position. From 17 to 30 November the company acquired 130 BTC for about $11.7m at an average price of $89,960. <\/p>\n<p>The firm\u2019s total holdings reached 650,000 BTC, valued at $59.8bn. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"490\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-35750702a89ffe97-136347225064297-1024x490.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271163\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-35750702a89ffe97-136347225064297-1024x490.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-35750702a89ffe97-136347225064297-300x143.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-35750702a89ffe97-136347225064297-768x367.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-35750702a89ffe97-136347225064297-1536x734.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-35750702a89ffe97-136347225064297.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/bitbo.io\/treasuries\/microstrategy\/\">BitBo<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Risk of exclusion from the MSCI index<\/h2>\n<p>The market awaits MSCI\u2019s decision on the status of Strategy\u2019s shares and other crypto-treasury companies in global indices. It is due on 15 January. <\/p>\n<p>JPMorgan\u2019s analysts reckon the impact would be asymmetric: potential losses from exclusion are limited, while the benefit of remaining in the index is substantial.<\/p>\n<p>In their view, the risks are already \u201cmore than priced in\u201d. Since 10 October, when MSCI announced a review of its classifications, Strategy\u2019s shares have slumped 40%. Such a deep correction suggests the market has factored in not only removal from the provider\u2019s indices but also potential exclusion from other major benchmarks.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"484\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9510d44c5c4faccd-136389002459529-1024x484.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271164\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9510d44c5c4faccd-136389002459529-1024x484.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9510d44c5c4faccd-136389002459529-300x142.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9510d44c5c4faccd-136389002459529-768x363.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9510d44c5c4faccd-136389002459529-1536x725.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-9510d44c5c4faccd-136389002459529.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/MSTR\/\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier, JPMorgan <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/investors-accuse-jpmorgan-of-targeting-michael-saylors-strategy\">estimated<\/a> potential capital outflows at $2.8bn. If other index providers take similar steps, losses could reach $8.8bn.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s founder, Michael Saylor, said: <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u00abIndex classification does not define us. Our strategy is long-term; confidence in bitcoin is unshakable\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Analysts say that keeping Strategy in the MSCI index would be a powerful positive signal. In that case, the company\u2019s shares and bitcoin\u2019s price have every chance to \u201crebound strongly\u201d to levels seen before the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday-2\">October plunge<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>The analysts confirmed that the cost of production ($90,000) has historically served as a \u201csoft floor\u201d. A prolonged spell below that level, as in 2018, could intensify pressure on miners and push the support threshold lower.<\/p>\n<p>Over the longer term, JPMorgan remains optimistic. Its model comparing bitcoin with gold (adjusted for volatility) still points to a fair value of about $170,000. That implies considerable upside over the next 6\u201312 months, assuming the market stabilises.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Strategy does not need to sell bitcoins <\/h2>\n<p>Bitwise\u2019s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, <a href=\"https:\/\/experts.bitwiseinvestments.com\/cio-memos\/no-virginia-strategy-is-not-going-to-sell-its-bitcoin\">rejected<\/a> concerns that Strategy would be forced to sell its digital assets because of exclusion from the MSCI index or market pressure. He called this scenario mistaken.<\/p>\n<p>He acknowledged that a delisting would have an effect, but one weaker than expected. Hougan recalled that inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 triggered $2.1bn of fund purchases of MSTR shares, yet the price barely moved.<\/p>\n<p>Like JPMorgan\u2019s analysts, Hougan is confident that a negative MSCI decision is already priced in. <\/p>\n<p>The Bitwise executive deems unfounded the forecasts that the company\u2019s market value will fall below the worth of its bitcoin reserves. Even if the shares trade at a discount to NAV, the firm would not have to sell cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<p>The company\u2019s main obligations \u2014 annual debt service of $800m and bond redemptions \u2014 will not create immediate pressure on the treasury, Hougan concluded. <\/p>\n<p>Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-strategy-prepares-for-prolonged-bear-market\">viewed<\/a> Strategy\u2019s creation of a dollar reserve as preparation for a prolonged bear market. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Strategy\u2019s balance-sheet resilience and ability to avoid selling bitcoin are pivotal for the asset\u2019s price, JPMorgan says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":91869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"JPMorgan: Strategy\u2019s balance-sheet strength outweighs miner pressure for bitcoin\u2019s price.","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,229,1207],"class_list":["post-91868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-jpmorgan","tag-microstrategy"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"212","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"JPMorgan: Strategy\u2019s balance-sheet strength outweighs miner pressure for bitcoin\u2019s price.","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=91868"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":91871,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/91868\/revisions\/91871"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/91869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=91868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=91868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=91868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}