{"id":92122,"date":"2025-12-12T13:27:37","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T10:27:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=92122"},"modified":"2025-12-12T13:30:24","modified_gmt":"2025-12-12T10:30:24","slug":"prediction-markets-doubt-bitcoin-will-hit-100000-by-year-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/prediction-markets-doubt-bitcoin-will-hit-100000-by-year-end\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets Doubt Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000 by Year-End"},"content":{"rendered":"

Many users of prediction platforms are convinced that the first cryptocurrency will end the year below the psychological mark of $100,000.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

As of December 12, the corresponding probability on Kalshi stands at just 42%:<\/p>\n

\"Kalshi\"
Source: Kalshi<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A similar figure on Polymarket<\/a> is 39%.<\/p>\n

\"Polemarket\"
Source: Polymarket<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the time of writing, digital gold is trading around $92,230, according to CoinGecko<\/a>. The last time quotes were above the “round mark” was on November 13.<\/p>\n

The asset’s growth is restrained by several factors, including macroeconomic uncertainty<\/a> and a slowdown in the pace<\/a> of corporate reserve accumulation.<\/p>\n

Data from Capriole Investments indicates a decline in activity among “treasury” companies. This may suggest a depletion of institutional demand.<\/p>\n

On the other hand, Polymarket users assess the probability of Strategy selling bitcoins<\/a> by the end of the year as extremely low\u2014about 1%.<\/p>\n

\"Strat\"
Source: Polymarket<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last week, Michael Saylor’s company<\/a> increased its reserves to 660,624 BTC, purchasing an additional 10,624 BTC<\/a> for approximately $962.7 million.<\/p>\n

Preparing for a $98,000 Surge?<\/h2>\n

An analyst known as Daan Crypto Trades noted<\/a> that quotes are once again testing resistance near the year’s opening price.<\/p>\n

\"Daan\"
Source: X account Daan Crypto Trades<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In his view, breaking and consolidating above $94,000 would pave the way to $108,000\u2014the calculated target of the “Triangle” pattern.<\/p>\n

However, the expert suggested that growth might be limited to a retest of the former support zone around $98,000, where a significant volume of liquidity is concentrated.<\/p>\n

As reported, analysts at Coinbase Institutional predicted<\/a> a rise in Bitcoin in December. They believe the November correction laid the groundwork for a market recovery by year-end.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Many users of prediction platforms are convinced that the first cryptocurrency will end the year below the psychological mark of $100,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin unlikely to hit $100,000 by year-end, say prediction markets.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1146,2364,1148,1253],"class_list":["post-92122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-kalshi","tag-polymarket","tag-technical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"194","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin unlikely to hit $100,000 by year-end, say prediction markets.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92122","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92122"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92122\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92124,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92122\/revisions\/92124"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92122"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92122"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92122"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}