{"id":92322,"date":"2025-12-17T16:09:14","date_gmt":"2025-12-17T13:09:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=92322"},"modified":"2025-12-18T17:06:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-18T14:06:55","slug":"faster-than-the-fed-prediction-markets-become-a-leading-macro-indicator","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/faster-than-the-fed-prediction-markets-become-a-leading-macro-indicator\/","title":{"rendered":"Prediction Markets Become the Leading Indicator for Macro Data"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction platforms are emerging as a leading indicator for key economic data, according to a report by <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-an-automated-market-maker\">market maker<\/a> Keyrock.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In collaboration with <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Dune?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Dune<\/a>, we\u2019ve released our prediction markets report. <\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a data-backed dive into how they are becoming core information and hedging infrastructure across crypto, media, and institutional finance, with insights from over 10 contributors.<\/p>\n<p>Find out more \ud83d\udc47 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/k2Lhwiha8V\">pic.twitter.com\/k2Lhwiha8V<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Keyrock \ud83d\udd11\ud83e\udea8 (@keyrock) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/keyrock\/status\/2001221347255443659?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 17, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Analysts compared Kalshi\u2019s \u201cInflation in 2025\u201d market with the Nowcast index from the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve Bank\" class=\"old_tooltip\">FRB<\/span> Cleveland. The bank\u2019s tool lags: it updates only after official statistics are released.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"540\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4ae3d13a96356010-1191882664461199-1024x540.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271929\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4ae3d13a96356010-1191882664461199-1024x540.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4ae3d13a96356010-1191882664461199-300x158.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4ae3d13a96356010-1191882664461199-768x405.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4ae3d13a96356010-1191882664461199.png 1316w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Keyrock.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Prediction platforms move first, continuously absorbing market information\u2014from analysis to rumours.<\/p>\n<p>For example, in April, ahead of the <span data-descr=\"US consumer price index\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CPI<\/span> release, Kalshi predicted rising inflation (the forecast rose from 3.05% to 3.58%). On FedNow the figure stayed around ~3.9% only after the official publication.<\/p>\n<p>In July the pattern repeated. While FedNow reacted with a delay of several days, Kalshi\u2019s readings remained stable\u2014the market had already priced in the shift.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cRather than a lagging statistical update, Kalshi represents a real-time consensus about future inflation, giving traders an informational edge to anticipate macro turns before they are reflected in official forecasts,\u201d the specialists said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-solana-sol\">Solana<\/a>-project Worm co-founder Nass Dib noted that hedge funds already use prediction platforms. These tools help them move ahead of the curve by tracking shifts in investor sentiment.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Forecast accuracy<\/h2>\n<p>The authors cited an analysis by data specialist Alex McCallum showing that <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-polymarket\">Polymarket<\/a> consistently outperforms traditional polls. The platform\u2019s accuracy ranges between 90% and 95%:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A month before an event, the market correctly assesses the outcome in 90.4% of cases;<\/li>\n<li>as the date approaches, the figure dips to 88.5%;<\/li>\n<li>in the decisive final hours before close, accuracy jumps to 94.1%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Simple \u201cdid it happen or not\u201d tallies are a blunt instrument. They equate forecasts with 90% and 51% probabilities, even though market confidence in them differs.<\/p>\n<p>Keyrock\u2019s experts proposed using the Brier index. It measures not a \u201chit\u201d but the degree of match: how close the forecast probability is to the realised outcome. In this model, the ideal score is 0: the lower the score, the closer the forecast is to reality.<\/p>\n<p>The average score for prediction platforms is 0.09\u2014noticeably better than traditional industries:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>weather forecasting \u2014 0.14\u20130.15;<\/li>\n<li>sports betting \u2014 0.18\u20130.22.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"516\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-20cd8d3bdbe5b80a-1191922141688086-1024x516.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271930\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-20cd8d3bdbe5b80a-1191922141688086-1024x516.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-20cd8d3bdbe5b80a-1191922141688086-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-20cd8d3bdbe5b80a-1191922141688086-768x387.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-20cd8d3bdbe5b80a-1191922141688086.png 1330w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Prediction platforms by Brier score. Source: Keyrock.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>However, much depends on liquidity. Binary yes\/no markets work well with high trading volumes; in thin markets, the story is different.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cTraditional models assume continuous price movement, not discrete \u2018yes or no\u2019 outcomes. Combined with low liquidity, that leads to wider spreads, sharp volatility and more complex margin dynamics,\u201d explained KPMG managing director Duncan Hennes.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Engagement<\/h2>\n<p>Keyrock also found that Polymarket outperforms most crypto projects on retention. Its results are higher than 85% of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-decentralised-finance-defi\">DeFi<\/a> projects, wallets and centralised exchanges.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"520\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c0d0fbb3656732fa-1193163257103486-1024x520.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271931\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c0d0fbb3656732fa-1193163257103486-1024x520.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c0d0fbb3656732fa-1193163257103486-300x152.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c0d0fbb3656732fa-1193163257103486-768x390.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c0d0fbb3656732fa-1193163257103486.png 1334w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Keyrock.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>User-activity analysis identified three stages in the evolution of platform loyalty:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Era of pioneers.<\/strong> The core consisted of crypto-enthusiasts driven by the novelty of the technology. Their deep engagement delivered record retention (up to six months) despite modest volumes.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Phase of growth and stress.<\/strong> Expanding the audience naturally reduced average retention. The <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cftc-fines-defi-platform-polymarket-1-4-million\">dispute<\/a> with the <span data-descr=\"US Commodity Futures Trading Commission\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CFTC<\/span> in 2022 exacerbated matters, cutting the platform off from its key market \u2014 the United States.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Habit formation.<\/strong> Broadening the roster of markets and rising liquidity reversed the negative trend. The chief sign of recovery is higher two-month retention and a slower long-term churn. The platform is gradually becoming an everyday tool for users.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"515\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a6978d393a5a6d6-1193187798312096-1024x515.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-271932\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a6978d393a5a6d6-1193187798312096-1024x515.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a6978d393a5a6d6-1193187798312096-300x151.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a6978d393a5a6d6-1193187798312096-768x386.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6a6978d393a5a6d6-1193187798312096.png 1360w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Keyrock.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The analysts stressed that Polymarket\u2019s metrics are organic\u2014rooted in the nature of the product.<\/p>\n<p>In their view, the key to success is the event cycle. Elections, macro releases and sports seasons create a natural rhythm that regularly brings users back.<\/p>\n<p>In early December, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/former-binance-chief-unveils-predict-fun-forecast-platform\">unveiled<\/a> the prediction platform predict.fun.<\/p>\n<p>Two weeks later, the decentralised crypto exchange PancakeSwap <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/pancakeswap-introduces-a-rival-to-polymarket\">announced<\/a> a prediction market launch.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction platforms are becoming a leading indicator for key economic data, Keyrock says in a report.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18554,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Polymarket\u2019s accuracy ranges between 90% and 95%","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2364,1148,1595,1252],"class_list":["post-92322","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-kalshi","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-reports"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"211","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Polymarket\u2019s accuracy ranges between 90% and 95%","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92322","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92322"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92322\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92337,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92322\/revisions\/92337"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92322"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92322"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92322"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}