{"id":92404,"date":"2025-12-19T12:49:03","date_gmt":"2025-12-19T09:49:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=92404"},"modified":"2025-12-22T11:06:51","modified_gmt":"2025-12-22T08:06:51","slug":"is-the-worst-yet-to-come-analysts-warn-of-bitcoins-lack-of-final-capitulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/is-the-worst-yet-to-come-analysts-warn-of-bitcoins-lack-of-final-capitulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Flag Missing &#8216;Final Capitulation&#8217; as Sign More Bitcoin Pain May Lie Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The market valuation of the leading cryptocurrency lags behind its actual network activity, and the search for a price bottom is not yet complete. This conclusion was reached by experts from the Checkonchain platform and analyst MorenoDV.<\/p>\n<p>According to the researchers, 38% of the digital gold supply is at an unrealized loss. The scale of losses is comparable to mid-2021 levels.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin is currently hammering out a bottom, but the process is far from over.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 38% of supply currently underwater<br \/>\u2014 On-chain losses similar to mid-2021 &#8220;bull killer&#8221; levels<br \/>\u2014 $81k marks the average ETF inflow cost basis &#038; True Market Mean<br \/>\u2014 True capitulation event still\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ml2aI1gxrJ\">pic.twitter.com\/ml2aI1gxrJ<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 _Checkonchain (@_checkonchain) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/_checkonchain\/status\/2001818983759257653?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Experts identified $81,000 as a significant level. It corresponds to the average purchase price for spot <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">Bitcoin ETFs<\/a> and the <span data-descr=\"true market mean\" class=\"old_tooltip\">True Market Mean<\/span>. Analysts emphasized that a final capitulation of investors in the market has not yet been observed.<\/p>\n<p>MorenoDV highlighted the NVT Golden Cross indicator, which assesses network value relative to transaction volume. This is akin to the classic <span data-descr=\"price\/earnings\" class=\"old_tooltip\">P\/E<\/span> ratio, where company earnings are replaced by economic activity on the blockchain.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin\u2019s Valuation Reset Is Happening Again<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe present setup points to a market transitioning from deep undervaluation toward equilibrium, a phase historically associated with accumulation.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MorenoDV_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MorenoDV_<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Read More \u2935\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2o9AUUKN2k\">https:\/\/t.co\/2o9AUUKN2k<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kPGrGnak4E\">pic.twitter.com\/kPGrGnak4E<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2001915905198989695?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 19, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Previously, the indicator fell to -0.58. This level indicated not so much market participant pessimism as a fundamental undervaluation of the asset. Currently, the value has risen to -0.32.<\/p>\n<p>According to the analyst, prices are gradually aligning with metrics, but Bitcoin is still trading at a discount. The market is moving from deep oversold conditions towards equilibrium\u2014a phase historically accompanied by active position accumulation.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, the head of research at K33 Research, Vetle Lunde, <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-distribution-phase-nears-completion-analyst-claims\">stated<\/a> that long-term Bitcoin holders have nearly completed their phase of active selling.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The market valuation of Bitcoin lags behind its actual network activity, and the search for a price bottom is not yet complete. This conclusion was reached by Checkonchain and MorenoDV.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92405,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin's valuation lags behind network activity; price bottom search ongoing.","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1268],"class_list":["post-92404","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"118","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin's valuation lags behind network activity; price bottom search ongoing.","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92404","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=92404"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92404\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":92488,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/92404\/revisions\/92488"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/92405"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=92404"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=92404"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=92404"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}