{"id":93045,"date":"2026-01-12T16:11:03","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T13:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93045"},"modified":"2026-01-12T17:22:18","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T14:22:18","slug":"analysts-gauge-bitcoins-odds-of-a-trend-reversal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-gauge-bitcoins-odds-of-a-trend-reversal\/","title":{"rendered":"Experts Weigh Odds of a Bitcoin Trend Reversal"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Crypto markets reacted to an escalating dispute between the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> and the US Department of Justice. Analysts noted bitcoin\u2019s attempts to hold above $92,000 and assessed the likelihood of a trend change.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A failed hedge<\/h2>\n<p>QCP Capital flagged a rally in gold and silver during the Asian trading session.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"QCPbroadcast\/1532\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The move coincided with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/speech\/powell20260111a.htm\">comments<\/a> by Fed chair Jerome Powell. He said the US Department of Justice had threatened to bring criminal charges over testimony he delivered to Congress in June 2025, which he described as political retribution for the central bank\u2019s refusal to align interest rates with President Donald Trump\u2019s policy.<\/p>\n<p>Investors saw a risk to central-bank independence and rotated into alternative stores of value. Bitcoin initially followed suit, attempting to act as a hedge against institutional threats.<\/p>\n<p>However, the digital currency <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-and-privacy-coins-climb-amid-trump-powell-standoff\">failed to hold above $92,000<\/a> and pared gains at the European open.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe inability to capitalise on bullish narratives underscores the structural headwinds bitcoin has faced since \u201d<\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday-2\"><em>October 10<\/em><\/a><em>\u201c. Optimism about a first-quarter breakout is fading,\u201d QCP noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The firm also noted profit-taking and a shift in options-market positioning:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>traders cut long-dated call exposure (strikes at $98,000 and $100,000 expiring in January\u2013February 2026);<\/li>\n<li>part of January $100,000 contracts was rolled to March 2026 with the strike raised to $125,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>This suggests investors are pushing bullish bets further out, unconvinced of an imminent rally, the analysts said.<\/p>\n<p>QCP warned volatility would persist this week. Markets await US inflation data on January 13. The following day, a US Supreme Court decision on tariffs is expected.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A reversal signal<\/h2>\n<p>A CryptoQuant analyst known as CryptoMe drew attention to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\">SOPR<\/a> metric for short-term holders (STH-SOPR) attempting to hold above a key threshold, which could indicate a shift from bearish to bullish.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A New Hope: Trend Reversal\u2026 or Just a Fakeout?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIn our current situation, after 10 October, STH-SOPR tried for the first time this week to escape upward above 1.0.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptometugce?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@cryptometugce<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Tq2IYw9Dxk\">pic.twitter.com\/Tq2IYw9Dxk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2010621262377214028?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>STH-SOPR gauges the profitability of coins that moved on-chain over the past 155 days. A reading below 1 indicates speculators are selling at a loss.<\/p>\n<p>According to the analyst, since October 10 the metric has been in negative territory. Historically, the 1 level serves as firm resistance during downturns and as support in uptrends.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIf you look closely at the chart, the 1 level works like a ceiling in bear cycles: STH-SOPR cannot rise above it. In bull periods it serves as a floor. Exiting from below one is often used as a trend-reversal signal,\u201d the analyst explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>This week, for the first time in three months, the metric tried to break that resistance from below. However, CryptoMe stressed the signal is not yet confirmed.<\/p>\n<p>There is a risk of a \u201cfakeout\u201d if it fails to hold above the threshold by the daily close. Even so, the attempt to retake the level after a long stall offers hope for a market recovery, the specialist said.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Retail fear<\/h2>\n<p>Despite bitcoin\u2019s broader uptrend, retail investors continue to sell at a loss amid volatility fears, noted another CryptoQuant expert using the pseudonym G a a h.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Retail Investors Fear Short-Term Volatility as Bitcoin Continues Its Upward Trend<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, this misalignment between rising prices and capitulating retail investors often marks areas of opportunity.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gaah_im?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@gaah_im<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/2RcmrttcbK\">pic.twitter.com\/2RcmrttcbK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2010661570569973810?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In 2024\u20132025, bitcoin\u2019s price rose structurally, setting higher local highs, the analyst said. Speculators\u2019 behaviour, however, ran counter to that.<\/p>\n<p>Late last year, sentiment neared \u201cextreme fear\u201d. SOPR dropped to 0.98\u2014a level last seen in November 2022, when bitcoin traded around $16,000.<\/p>\n<p>G a a h flagged several key trends:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>for the past 70 days, short-term holders have been realising losses;<\/li>\n<li>after the previous all-time high was broken, STH profit realisation turned downward;<\/li>\n<li>STH-SOPR below 1 signals extended corrections.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In such periods, unrealised losses become realised, intensifying selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>He concluded that this misalignment\u2014rising prices alongside the capitulation of \u201cweak hands\u201d\u2014has historically created attractive entry points. The current setup, he said, confirms the trend\u2019s structural strength despite retail panic.<\/p>\n<p>In December, an analyst using the moniker Woominkyu <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-analyst-warns-of-bitcoins-potential-shift-to-bearish-phase\">suggested<\/a> that the leading cryptocurrency could shift into a bear phase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Crypto markets reacted to an escalating Fed\u2013DoJ dispute as bitcoin struggled to hold $92,000 and analysts weighed a trend reversal.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93046,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Analysts weigh bitcoin\u2019s reversal odds as $92,000 falters amid Fed\u2013DoJ turmoil.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1205,1145,1326],"class_list":["post-93045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis","tag-qcp-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"134","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Analysts weigh bitcoin\u2019s reversal odds as $92,000 falters amid Fed\u2013DoJ turmoil.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93045"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93052,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93045\/revisions\/93052"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93046"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}