{"id":93341,"date":"2026-01-20T17:20:59","date_gmt":"2026-01-20T14:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93341"},"modified":"2026-01-20T17:26:48","modified_gmt":"2026-01-20T14:26:48","slug":"bitcoin-chart-forms-a-death-cross","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoin-chart-forms-a-death-cross\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin chart forms a &#8216;death cross&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The price of digital gold failed to hold above a key level and slipped back into the range that has contained it for the past two months. Trading veteran Peter Brandt forecast a drop to $58,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">58k to $62k is where I think it is going <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a><br \/>If it does not go there I will NOT be ashamed, so I do not need to see you trolls screen shot this in the future<brI am wrong 50% of the time. It does not bother me to be wrong <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/NDOuSrqLwa\">pic.twitter.com\/NDOuSrqLwa<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PeterLBrandt\/status\/2013390022506864827?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, spotted a \u201cdeath cross\u201d on bitcoin\u2019s chart.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">If you were caught off guard by the Bitcoin selloff, you simply haven&#8217;t been paying attention to the right things. <\/p>\n<p>This move had nothing to do with narratives. We&#8217;ve seen it developing in the charts, and have been talking about it for over a month.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, a Death Cross\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xmO1Hl90qe\">pic.twitter.com\/xmO1Hl90qe<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Keith Alan (@KAProductions) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KAProductions\/status\/2013090732702089537?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He said the pattern formed when the 21\u2011week simple moving average (SMA) crossed below the 51\u2011week. Historically, that has signalled proximity to a macro bottom.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The next key support could be the 100\u2011week SMA near $86,900, he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>On January 20th, before Wall Street opened, bitcoin tried to test $90,000 but failed as fears of a trade war between the US and the EU grew.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The trader known as Daan Crypto Trades said the \u201cbreakout failed\u201d, shifting focus to the 2026 yearly open around $87,000 as potential support.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> Now fully back into the ~$84K-$94K range it has spend the past 2 months in already.<\/p>\n<p>Breakout failed and doesn&#8217;t make for a pretty look now. <\/p>\n<p>Been talking about that yearly open likely being taken out at some point as it&#8217;s rare to see no wick below on the yearly candle.<\/p>\n<p>So\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xn3HwnCMHr\">pic.twitter.com\/xn3HwnCMHr<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DaanCrypto\/status\/2013521139209847116?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 20, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cI have already said that the yearly open will likely be taken out at some point: it\u2019s rare to see a yearly candle without a lower wick. So, in my opinion, better to get it over with sooner rather than later. I\u2019m still just watching, as I see no reason to trade this \u2018chop\u2019,\u201d he wrote.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other views and geopolitical risks\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>Traders on decentralised platform Derive.xyz and derivatives exchange Deribit put the odds of bitcoin falling below $80,000 by late June at 30%.<\/p>\n<p>According to Sean Dawson, head of research at Derive.xyz, options positioning is skewed toward downside protection.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cParticipants estimate a 30% chance of a drop below $80,000 by June 26, whereas the probability of a rise above $120,000 over the same period is just 19%,\u201d he told <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/01\/20\/bitcoin-has-a-30-chance-of-falling-below-usd80-000-by-late-june-options-data-suggests\"><em>CoinDesk<\/em><\/a><em>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The sell-off investors fear would push the price back to April\u2019s lows. Then, digital gold fell to $75,000 after US president Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports from other countries, roiling global markets.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Dawson sees geopolitics as paramount for assessing the next leg in cryptocurrencies. He said that risks to relations with Europe over the president\u2019s plans to seize Greenland could lead to deeper losses.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cRising geopolitical tensions between the US and Europe \u2014 especially around Greenland \u2014 raise the risk of a regime shift toward a higher\u2011volatility environment, which is not yet reflected in spot prices,\u201d the expert explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Against the backdrop of Mr Trump\u2019s threat to impose a 10% levy on imports from eight European countries from February 1st, the yield on ten\u2011year US Treasuries, considered the world\u2019s safest asset, also jumped.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It rose to 4.28% \u2014 the highest since September 3rd.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c2fed4ea444a7f2e-4134942514531595.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-273689\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">US 10\u2011year Treasury yield. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=TVC%3AUS10Y\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Sovereign yields underpin the global borrowing system. When they rise, lending rates increase worldwide as banks add their own risk premium to this \u201crisk\u2011free\u201d base.<\/p>\n<p>For markets, higher US yields are a warning sign. Elevated rates make speculative investments less attractive.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Amid geopolitical uncertainty and the Treasury backdrop, bitcoin\u2019s price <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin\">fell<\/a> 2.2% over the past day. At the time of writing it trades around $90,900.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reasons for optimism\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-hash-ribbons-indicator\">Hash Ribbons<\/a> indicator flashed a buy signal. It is triggered when the 30\u2011day moving average of hashrate drops below its 60\u2011day exponential moving average (EMA).\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76f4ba43a7533648-4134986903887174.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-273690\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bitcoin\u2019s Hash Ribbons indicator. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/capriole.com\/charts\/?chart=hash-ribbons\">Capriole Investments<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Such a cross typically marks miner capitulation phases, when less efficient operators are forced to shut down.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts at On\u2011Chain Mind offered a similar observation.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">We\u2019re currently seeing one of the largest Hash Ribbons signals on record.<\/p>\n<p>Hash Ribbons track miner stress by comparing short- and long-term hash rate trends. When miners capitulate and then recover, it often marks the end of forced selling.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, once this phase\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/uEzmS0LboC\">pic.twitter.com\/uEzmS0LboC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 On-Chain Mind (@OnChainMind) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/OnChainMind\/status\/2013285123693699483?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The previous buy signal came in July 2025, after which bitcoin rose 25% \u2014 from $98,000 to $123,200.<\/p>\n<p>Another bullish signal comes from the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-cryptos-fear-and-greed-index\">Fear and Greed Index<\/a>. CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno <a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/insights\/quicktake\/696e8e81c262194c0f2b5309-Bitcoin-Fear-and-Greed-Golden-Cross-Signals-Potential-Rally-Ahead\">noted<\/a> the formation of a \u201cgolden cross\u201d on its chart, which traditionally foreshadows potential upside.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-f3fab76ef843a114-4135016961354588.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-273691\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: CryptoQuant.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cSuch crosses usually occur after prolonged periods of fear and often appear in zones of local price compression rather than at global highs. As the chart shows, in most of the highlighted cases the price displayed positive performance in the following weeks,\u201d he stressed.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The key threshold for bitcoin is $90,000 \u2014 a critical psychological and technical support that bulls must defend, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/creptosolutions\/status\/2013487844593975586\">says<\/a> the analyst known as Crypto Solutions.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>He says that as long as price holds above that level, buyers retain the initiative and keep open the chance of a new rally.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Technically, the level aligns with two important markers:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>the 200\u2011period moving average on the four\u2011hour chart;<\/li>\n<li>the lower boundary of a \u201cbear flag\u201d on the weekly timeframe.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Losing $90,000 could change the picture dramatically, Crypto Solutions noted.\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIf the level is broken and the weekly candle closes below, market dynamics may shift into a negative phase. In that case, the next likely target will be the $80,000\u2013$85,000 zone \u2014 an important area of demand on the daily chart,\u201d he added.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>If it falls below $80,000, key supports will be $74,500 (April 2025 low) and $68,000 (200\u2011week moving average).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The most pessimistic scenario implied by the \u201cbear flag\u201d points to a potential target around $57,050. That level could become a reversal point if a full\u2011blown bear trend develops.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst known as Rekt Capital highlighted the importance of the 2025 open at $93,500.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTC?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTC<\/a> <\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin has indeed rejected from the cluster of Bull Market EMAs, forcing a post-breakout retest of the $93500 level<\/p>\n<p>In fact, Bitcoin has marginally Weekly Closed above $93500, therefore resembling more the April 2025 Weekly Close above $93500 than the November 2024 one\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/yaEE3QcJRK\">https:\/\/t.co\/yaEE3QcJRK<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DHhhEZKLJp\">pic.twitter.com\/DHhhEZKLJp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rektcapital\/status\/2013246643596865731?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIn fact, bitcoin closed the week slightly above $93,500, which resembles April 2025\u2019s weekly close above that level (green circles) more than November 2024\u2019s,\u201d he said.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>To confirm a bullish trend, the asset needs to hold above that mark for a week, he argued.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Glassnode analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-spot-signs-of-recovery-in-bitcoins-spot-market\">noted<\/a> an improvement in the spot market for the leading cryptocurrency. Trading volumes are rising and selling pressure is easing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin slipped back into the two-month range. Peter Brandt forecast a drop to $58,000.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93342,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Peter Brandt forecast the cryptocurrency falling to $58,000","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1146,1205,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-93341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"306","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Peter Brandt forecast the cryptocurrency falling to $58,000","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93341","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93341"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93341\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93343,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93341\/revisions\/93343"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93342"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93341"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93341"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93341"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}