{"id":93434,"date":"2026-01-22T12:21:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-22T09:21:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93434"},"modified":"2026-01-22T12:26:11","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T09:26:11","slug":"economist-warns-bitcoin-could-fall-to-60000-as-us-eu-trade-war-escalates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/economist-warns-bitcoin-could-fall-to-60000-as-us-eu-trade-war-escalates\/","title":{"rendered":"Economist warns bitcoin could fall to $60,000 as US\u2013EU trade war escalates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The price of digital gold could correct to $60,000 amid an escalating trade war between the US and EU, according to macroeconomist Luke Gromen.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Luke Gromen: The Dollar System Is Breaking \u2014 And Markets Aren\u2019t Ready\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/fiHy1FoRl-Y?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>He added that international isolation of the United States and a recession could also trigger heavy selling and institutional outflows.<\/p>\n<p>Gromen argued that institutions are unlikely to drive the first cryptocurrency to a new high this year without a \u201cpowerful fundamental catalyst\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIf you are counting on institutional investors to lift the price from $90,000 to $150,000, without a serious catalyst that is unlikely to happen. That is not how institutional investors operate. They will wait,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Such a move would require more than a 65% gain from around $89,800.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c968e54a9fd023aa-4289655003846318.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-273820\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>He cited passage of the Clarity Act in the US and potential new <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/why-do-federal-reserve-decisions-move-bitcoins-price\">quantitative easing<\/a> by the Federal Reserve as key upside drivers.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutional demand remains strong<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant chief executive Ki Young Ju noted that \u201cinstitutional demand for bitcoin remains strong\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains strong.<\/p>\n<p>US custody wallets typically hold 100-1,000 BTC each. Excluding exchanges and miners, this gives a rough read on institutional demand. ETF holdings included.<\/p>\n<p>577K BTC ($53B) added over the past year, and still flowing in. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kG1c8dTvlq\">pic.twitter.com\/kG1c8dTvlq<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ki_young_ju\/status\/2013369998618525952?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cUS custody wallets typically hold 100\u20131,000 BTC each. Excluding exchanges and miners, this gives a rough read on institutional demand. <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\"><em>ETF<\/em><\/a><em> holdings included,\u201d he wrote.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Over the past year, large investors added 577,000 BTC worth $53 billion, he said. Inflows continue, Ju noted.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">ETFs see outflows\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>In the latest trading session, US spot bitcoin ETFs shed $708.7 million, the biggest daily outflow in two months.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"551\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c86c4e6480afb62-4289859145393249-1024x551.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-273821\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c86c4e6480afb62-4289859145393249-1024x551.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c86c4e6480afb62-4289859145393249-300x161.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c86c4e6480afb62-4289859145393249-768x413.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c86c4e6480afb62-4289859145393249-1536x827.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-3c86c4e6480afb62-4289859145393249.png 1828w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Inflow and outflow dynamics of spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>BlackRock\u2019s IBIT saw the largest redemptions at $356.6 million, followed by Fidelity\u2019s FBTC at $287.7 million.<\/p>\n<p>Ethereum ETFs saw $286.9 million in outflows, led by BlackRock\u2019s ETHA at $250.3 million.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"552\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76710a40779d86ee-4289871917551457-1024x552.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-273822\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76710a40779d86ee-4289871917551457-1024x552.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76710a40779d86ee-4289871917551457-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76710a40779d86ee-4289871917551457-768x414.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76710a40779d86ee-4289871917551457-1536x829.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-76710a40779d86ee-4289871917551457.png 1824w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Inflow and outflow dynamics of spot Ethereum ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-eth-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas argued the negative trend is not due to structural weakness \u2014 rather, the outflows reflect \u201cclassic de-risking\u201d.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWhen macro conditions deteriorate \u2014 rates rise, geopolitics flare or sudden volatility hits \u2014 institutions typically pull funds first from high-<span data-descr=\"a measure of an asset's systematic risk that gauges its volatility and sensitivity to moves in the overall market\" class=\"old_tooltip\">beta<\/span> assets,\u201d <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/386643\/bitcoin-ether-etf-outflows-accelerate\"><em>she commented<\/em><\/a><em>.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On January 21, bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-falls-below-88000-amid-stock-market-decline\">fell below $88,000<\/a> as stock markets slumped amid tensions between the US and EU.<\/p>\n<p>Prices soon steadied after US President Donald Trump said an agreement had been reached on Greenland. He also opted not to impose <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/a-shift-in-power-new-bitcoin-whales-seize-market-control\">tariffs on imports from European countries<\/a> in February.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cDespite the challenging macro backdrop, the crypto market is showing relative resilience as positions normalize,\u201d said Vincent Liu, chief investment officer at Kronos Research.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-at-760000-and-rwa-boom-ark-invests-2030-scenario\">predicted<\/a> bitcoin would reach $761,900 by 2030.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin could retreat to $60,000 as the US\u2013EU trade war intensifies, macroeconomist Luke Gromen says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93435,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Gromen sees risk of a drop to $60,000 as US\u2013EU trade tensions escalate.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,569,1156,1138],"class_list":["post-93434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-etf","tag-institutional-investors-and-whales","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"115","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Gromen sees risk of a drop to $60,000 as US\u2013EU trade tensions escalate.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93434"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93434\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93436,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93434\/revisions\/93436"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93435"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}