{"id":93546,"date":"2026-01-26T14:54:03","date_gmt":"2026-01-26T11:54:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93546"},"modified":"2026-01-26T14:55:37","modified_gmt":"2026-01-26T11:55:37","slug":"bitcoin-investors-face-record-losses-capitulation-or-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoin-investors-face-record-losses-capitulation-or-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Investors Face Record Losses: Capitulation or Bottom?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Holders of digital gold have realized losses amounting to $4.5 billion, marking a three-year high. CryptoQuant analyst Gaah described the situation as market capitulation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">$4.5 Billion in Realized Loss on Bitcoin<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHighest amount of realized losses in three years. The last time this occurred in Bitcoin, the price was trading at $28,000 after a brief correction period that lasted about a year.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gaah_im?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@gaah_im<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/OJ7bbL3RSC\">pic.twitter.com\/OJ7bbL3RSC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2015699088939847767?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 26, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert noted that widespread loss realization historically precedes the formation of a local bottom. Similar metrics were last observed when the price was $28,000 following a prolonged year-long correction.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Changpeng Zhao: Supercycle Instead of Four-Year Model<\/h2>\n<p>Despite the decline in prices at the beginning of the year, Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) suggested the onset of a digital gold supercycle in the next 12 months. In an interview with CNBC, he speculated that traditional market models might lose relevance.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Squawk Pod: Davos 2026: Binance Founder CZ - 01\/25\/26 | Audio Only\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/-P_JxHFZkJc?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cBitcoin usually follows four-year cycles: historically, every four years we see a new high, followed by a decline. But this year, given the pro-crypto stance of the US and other countries, we are likely to break this pattern,\u201d he stated.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Zhao does not plan to return to managing the exchange, despite <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/donald-trump-pardons-binance-founder\">being pardoned<\/a> by Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p>The platform&#8217;s founder acknowledged that the presidential decree lifts the ban on working at the company. However, CZ sees no point in returning to a leadership position.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cI don&#8217;t need it, nor do I have much desire. Leaving Binance after seven years was a good way to end that chapter. At the time, it was painful, I didn&#8217;t like it. But then you get used to it. I believe in giving space for other strong leaders to grow,\u201d he noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Zhao emphasized that Binance is thriving under the leadership of co-CEOs <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/binance-co-founder-yi-he-appointed-co-ceo-with-richard-teng\">Richard Teng and Yi He<\/a>. Key metrics are growing: the user base has exceeded 300 million, and the annual trading volume has reached $34 trillion.<\/p>\n<p>CZ describes himself as a \u201cpassive shareholder.\u201d He avoids being a \u201cbackseat driver,\u201d preferring to offer advice publicly through X when necessary.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutions Buy the Dip<\/h2>\n<p>The sentiment among major players contrasts with the panic selling in the retail market. According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/assets.ctfassets.net\/k3n74unfin40\/4AbRPLNhVxHcGnqMz9ld1H\/bc629d95eb2b2e0cb61d692a577f3f27\/Charting_Crypto_1Q26.pdf\">Charting Crypto Q1 2026 report<\/a> from Coinbase, 71% of institutional investors consider bitcoin \u201cundervalued\u201d in the $85,000-95,000 range.<\/p>\n<p>A survey conducted in December-January among 75 professional managers and 73 large private investors revealed:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>80% of institutions are willing to hold or increase positions if there is a 10% dip;<\/li>\n<li>60% of respondents increased their allocation to digital assets after the October <span data-descr=\"all-time high\" class=\"old_tooltip\">ATH<\/span>;<\/li>\n<li>54% believe the market is in an accumulation phase, presenting entry opportunities.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Only 4% of surveyed professionals described the current value of digital gold as overvalued.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Macroeconomic Context<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $87,650 \u2014 30% below the all-time high of $126,080 (according to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin\">CoinGecko<\/a>). Since the major crash on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/whales-adl-and-the-end-of-the-bull-what-really-happened-on-cryptos-black-saturday-2\">October 10<\/a>, which led to $19 billion in position liquidations, the market has moved sideways with a downward bias.<\/p>\n<p>Coinbase analysts attribute this to geopolitics: escalating tensions in the Middle East and tariff threats from the Trump administration.<\/p>\n<p>Amid uncertainty, traditional safe-haven assets have risen:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>gold <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-falls-to-86000-amid-shutdown-threat-gold-surpasses-5000\">reached<\/a> a new all-time high above $5,000;<\/li>\n<li>the market value of silver has <a href=\"https:\/\/goldprice.org\/silver-price.html\">doubled<\/a> since October;<\/li>\n<li>the S&#038;P 500 index <a href=\"https:\/\/www.google.com\/finance\/quote\/.INX:INDEXSP\">showed<\/a> a moderate increase of 3%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Meanwhile, the US economy is showing resilience: real GDP grew by more than 5% in the fourth quarter, and inflation in December was 2.7%.<\/p>\n<p>Coinbase expects that in 2026, the <span data-descr=\"Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> will cut the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/how-the-feds-policy-rate-affects-cryptocurrency-prices\">rate<\/a> twice. This could act as a catalyst for growth in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n<p>In January, Bitwise analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitwise-declares-end-of-bear-market\">stated<\/a> that the fourth quarter of 2025 marked the end of the bear phase.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin investors have realized $4.5 billion in losses, which CryptoQuant analysts call capitulation. CZ predicts a supercycle, while institutions see BTC at $87,000 as undervalued.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin investors face $4.5 billion in losses; CZ predicts a supercycle.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[744,18,935,138,1205,1268,1138],"class_list":["post-93546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-binance","tag-bitcoin","tag-changpeng-zhao","tag-coinbase","tag-cryptoquant","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"175","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin investors face $4.5 billion in losses; CZ predicts a supercycle.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93546","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93546"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93546\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93548,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93546\/revisions\/93548"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93547"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93546"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93546"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93546"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}