{"id":93658,"date":"2026-01-28T16:14:26","date_gmt":"2026-01-28T13:14:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93658"},"modified":"2026-01-28T18:54:28","modified_gmt":"2026-01-28T15:54:28","slug":"arthur-hayes-links-bitcoins-breakout-to-the-fed-firing-up-the-printing-press","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-links-bitcoins-breakout-to-the-fed-firing-up-the-printing-press\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed’s Printing Press Fueled Bitcoin’s Move, Says Arthur Hayes"},"content":{"rendered":"

BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes suggested<\/a> the first cryptocurrency could break out of its range if the Fed<\/span> backstops Japan\u2019s bond market.<\/p>\n

He posits the Federal Reserve could step into Japan\u2019s crisis: a weakening yen alongside rising government-bond (JGB) yields.<\/p>\n

The situation threatens US interests: investors could dump Treasuries to buy higher-yielding JGBs.<\/p>\n

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\u201cWill a collapse of the yen and JGB markets trigger any money printing by the Bank of Japan or the Fed? The answer is yes. Discussion of the Japanese financial system is important because for bitcoin to break out of its sideways move, it needs a healthy dose of money printing,\u201d Hayes believes.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

In his view, the US central bank could create dollar reserves via banks such as JPMorgan, sell the currency for yen to support the exchange rate and buy<\/p>\n

JGBs to lower their yields. This would expand the Fed\u2019s balance sheet and act as \u201ca necessary injection for the dirty fiat system\u201d.<\/p>\n

Fed meeting<\/h2>\n

On January 28, the FOMC<\/span> will decide on the policy rate. An overwhelming majority of investors expect it to stay unchanged, at 3.5%\u20133.75%.<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Source: CME FedWatch<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Prediction markets tell a similar story. Polymarket users put the odds of a cut or a hike at under 1%.<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Source: Polymarket<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Traders reckon the market has already priced in the potential drag from an unchanged rate. QCP analysts suggested<\/a> only short-term volatility in the case of a \u201chawkish pause\u201d.<\/p>\n

Attention is now on the wording of Fed chair Jerome Powell.<\/p>\n

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\u201cAll eyes are on Powell\u2019s press conference and his words about the Fed\u2019s plans for the coming months. If we hear any hints of a cut in March, bitcoin will go to the Moon,\u201d \u2014 <\/em>says<\/em><\/a> crypto investor Kiran Gadakh.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s key levels<\/h2>\n

Ahead of the meeting, bitcoin returned to $90,000 \u2014 up 2.3% over the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Some link the recovery of the bellwether to a weaker dollar, whose index fell to 95.5 yesterday \u2014 a four-year low.<\/p>\n

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\u201cThis reduced the opportunity cost of holding risk assets and supported bitcoin\u2019s rise. The pressure eased after the coin entered the $86,000\u2013$87,000 area and held there, where a dense cluster of leveraged position liquidations was triggered, which reduced excess leverage and stabilized the short-term market structure,\u201d \u2014 <\/em>noted<\/em><\/a> analysts at the crypto exchange CoinSwitch.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

They described the move in digital gold as \u201ca lull and consolidation,\u201d rather than readiness for a push higher.<\/p>\n

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades marked $84,000 as key support in the event of a pullback on the Fed decision or macro data. This level aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement drawn from the 2022 low ($15,500) to local highs.<\/p>\n

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$BTC<\/a> Technically the .382 Fibonacci retracement retest has still held up to this point.<\/p>\n

This is a pattern that has repeated throughout the entire cycle so far. Where each major drawdown has held on to that .382 Fib Retracement measured from the bear market bottom to the local\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/xokyJzRNSl<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 27, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n