{"id":93752,"date":"2026-01-30T17:03:49","date_gmt":"2026-01-30T14:03:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93752"},"modified":"2026-01-30T17:07:26","modified_gmt":"2026-01-30T14:07:26","slug":"cryptoquant-sees-signs-of-capitulation-among-bitcoin-investors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/cryptoquant-sees-signs-of-capitulation-among-bitcoin-investors\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant sees signs of capitulation among bitcoin investors"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As the leading cryptocurrency climbed to new highs, the key <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\">aSOPR<\/a> indicator signalled weakening bullishness, noted CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Late Bull, Early Bear, or Just a Reset? aSOPR Holds the Clue<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIf current support levels fail and additional technical indicators confirm bearish momentum, we could be entering a capitulation phase.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MorenoDV_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MorenoDV_<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8DuRRMNOXK\">pic.twitter.com\/8DuRRMNOXK<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2017148796254220318?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 30, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In his view, each bitcoin price peak was accompanied by increasingly early profit-taking, pointing to waning conviction with each leg higher.<\/p>\n<p>The metric has tracked a downward trend in profit-taking: market participants have been exiting positions more frequently at lower profitability.<\/p>\n<p>At present, aSOPR is closely tracking a descending channel. Each touch of the upper bound has coincided with local price tops, while approaches to the lower bound have matched local lows.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis makes aSOPR not just a sentiment gauge but a tool for identifying stress points in the market,\u201d the expert said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Bitcoin is now testing the channel\u2019s lower bound amid extreme fear in the market. Roughly a third of all bitcoin supply is in loss.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, such conditions have created tactical buying opportunities ahead of short-term bounces, the analyst stressed. However, the market is at a crossroads.<\/p>\n<p>A loss of current levels, coupled with further bearish signals, could usher in a capitulation phase. Lower highs in aSOPR throughout the bull cycle point to weakening \u201cstrong hands\u201d, and a break of current thresholds could trigger accelerated selling.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A return of risk appetite<\/h2>\n<p>On January 30, bitcoin briefly <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-slide-to-81000-triggers-1-7bn-of-liquidations\">fell<\/a> to a local low near $81,100, and Ethereum to $2,700. The total market capitalisation of cryptoassets fell 5.6% on the day to $2.9trn.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $82,800.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-0df4eb076fc90e8f-4997955408836439.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-274321\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Amid the sell-off, spot bitcoin-<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETFs<\/a> shed $817m. The latest daily outflow was the largest since mid-November.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-37b24c957037acb7-4997984282356281.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-274322\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Inflows and outflows for spot bitcoin ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The crypto slide was driven by declines in technology shares and precious metals. Microsoft fell 12%, setting off a domino effect across global markets.<\/p>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted that bitcoin\u2019s \u201crelatively contained correction\u201d triggered $300m of long liquidations within hours. The largest share came on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/the-price-of-popularity-and-a-lesson-for-all-hyperliquid\">Hyperliquid<\/a> \u2014 $87.1m of longs were closed.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Global Sell Off: -8% Gold, -12% Silver, -5% BTC, while Binance Open Interest back up to Pre-October 10 Levels<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis represents an increase of roughly 31% since then, gradually reflecting the return of risk appetite among investors.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Darkfost_Coc<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xKvYmbesRu\">pic.twitter.com\/xKvYmbesRu<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2017168013288472923?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 30, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cBy comparison, on Binance [\u2026] this figure was roughly three times smaller \u2014 around $30m. This suggests that many investors still use high leverage to gain market exposure, generating volatility spikes that are often amplified by liquidation cascades,\u201d the expert stressed.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Even so, risk appetite is returning, said Darkfost. Open interest on Binance now stands at 123,500 BTC, 31% above the October 10 level of 93,600 BTC.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other factors<\/h2>\n<p>Liquidity conditions also exacerbated the correction, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/387811\/bitcoin-slides-below-83k-as-wall-street-pulls-over-1b-from-crypto-etfs-after-fed-pause\">noted<\/a> Kraken\u2019s global economist Thomas Perfumo.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cGlobal liquidity, which most affects crypto market dynamics, remains tight. Interest rates are only one piece of the puzzle. At the same time, gold has historically benefited from a weak US dollar and continues to attract capital from more risk-sensitive investors,\u201d he said. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Short-term positioning added pressure. According to Kraken vice-president Matt Howells-Barby, worries over big tech\u2019s hefty AI spending injected nerves into risk assets. That contrasts with the clear risk-on tone with which these segments started the week.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cCredit spreads were already extremely tight, and markets were clearly risk-on before this move. Bitcoin felt the effects: a wave of long liquidations is pushing prices down. Failure to hold above $83,500 will shift the focus toward the $80,000 area,\u201d the expert stressed. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Beyond macro conditions, on-chain data point to stress in a key sector \u2014 bitcoin mining.<\/p>\n<p>According to CryptoQuant\u2019s weekly report, crypto mining saw severe disruptions <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/foundry-usa-bitcoin-pools-hashrate-drops-60-due-to-hurricane\">due to a powerful winter storm in the US<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Extreme weather forced several large operators to pause activity, prompting the steepest drop in the network\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-hashrate-and-mining-difficulty-in-cryptocurrencies\">hashrate<\/a> since October 2021.<\/p>\n<p>The blockchain\u2019s computing power fell by roughly 12% from mid-November levels. At the same time, as bitcoin\u2019s price fell and block production slowed, miners\u2019 daily revenue dropped to a yearly low of about $28m, sharply worsening industry profitability.<\/p>\n<p>More recent data show a recovery: hashrate and average block times are starting to return to previous levels as weather normalises.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards pointed to a deterioration: production cost has fallen to $69,000, and electrical cost stands at $55,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">This is not good. As the Bitcoin miner exodus continues, Production Cost has collapsed to $69K. Electrical Cost is $55K. This has expanded the potential range for near term downside. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Z0wcTT6CV8\">pic.twitter.com\/Z0wcTT6CV8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/caprioleio\/status\/2017053942874853556?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 30, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThis expands the potential range for near-term downside,\u201d he stressed. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/arthur-hayes-links-bitcoins-breakout-to-the-fed-firing-up-the-printing-press\">suggested<\/a> that the leading cryptocurrency could break out of its range if the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u0424\u0420\u0421<\/span> supports Japan\u2019s bond market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As bitcoin hit new highs, the aSOPR indicator signalled waning bullishness, according to CryptoQuant.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93753,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"CryptoQuant says aSOPR signals weakening sentiment and possible capitulation.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1137,1205,569,1138],"class_list":["post-93752","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-mining","tag-cryptoquant","tag-etf","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"192","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"CryptoQuant says aSOPR signals weakening sentiment and possible capitulation.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93752","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93752"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93752\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93754,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93752\/revisions\/93754"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93753"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93752"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93752"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93752"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}