{"id":93815,"date":"2026-02-02T13:11:03","date_gmt":"2026-02-02T10:11:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93815"},"modified":"2026-02-02T13:16:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-02T10:16:27","slug":"long-term-bitcoin-holders-slip-into-unrealised-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/long-term-bitcoin-holders-slip-into-unrealised-losses\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-term bitcoin holders slip into unrealised losses"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A CryptoQuant analyst using the handle Crazzyblockk says the market may be sliding into an &#8216;extremely bearish&#8217; phase, judging by the behaviour of investors who have held the leading cryptocurrency for 12\u201318 months.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Is Bitcoin Shifting Into an Extreme Bearish Market Regime?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUntil Bitcoin reclaims this realized price level with renewed accumulation momentum, market structure continues to favor consolidation, fragile rebounds, and elevated downside risk.\u201d \u2013 By Crazzyblockk <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tBhtkzLkgT\">pic.twitter.com\/tBhtkzLkgT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2018219743522455835?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is trading below this cohort\u2019s realised price, leaving them in unrealised loss. Historically, sustained trading beneath that threshold has tended to turn a garden\u2011variety pullback into a structural bear trend.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst flagged weakening accumulation. Balances have risen over the past 30 days, but the pace of buying has slowed markedly, signalling ebbing confidence as dip\u2011buying loses its zeal.<\/p>\n<p>In this set\u2011up the realised price acts as stout resistance: rallies invite breakeven selling, adding to supply.<\/p>\n<p>Until price reclaims that baseline and accumulation returns, Crazzyblockk expects consolidation, fragile rebounds and elevated downside risk.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Fed factor<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin fell <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-warn-of-further-bitcoin-losses-after-80000-breach\">below the psychological $80,000 mark<\/a>. Analysts linked the abrupt drop to personnel changes at the Fed.<\/p>\n<p>QCP Capital said the trigger was the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/trump-nominates-crypto-friendly-kevin-warsh-to-lead-the-fed\">confirmation<\/a> of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, which markets read as a harbinger of swifter monetary tightening.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"QCPbroadcast\/1539\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The fallout:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Large-scale liquidations. <\/strong>The drop triggered a wave of forced unwinds of leveraged positions (de\u2011leveraging). Longs liquidated topped $2.5bn.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Risk aversion.<\/strong> Sentiment soured amid a fourth straight month of outflows from <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a>. Even traditional havens wobbled, with gold and silver pulling back from highs.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Shifting expectations.<\/strong> Markets are assigning a higher probability to a withdrawal of stimulus under the new chair.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Where is the bottom?<\/h2>\n<p>QCP deems $74,500 technically pivotal, as it aligns with 2025\u2019s lows.<\/p>\n<p>Options markets remain cautious: puts outweigh calls, but there is no panic. Softer demand for hedges may suggest investors are beginning to build positions in anticipation of a local bottom.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts outlined key scenarios:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Bear case:<\/strong> a sustained break below $74,000 risks a retreat to 2024 trading ranges.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Bull case: <\/strong>a move back above $80,000 would offer the market a respite.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>A notable support sits at $76,000 \u2014 the average entry price of large institutional players.<\/p>\n<p>At press time, the leading cryptocurrency traded at $77,534, down 1.8% on the day.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7be04e0860859f32-5243229078116158-1024x658.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2026-02-02_12-46-16\" class=\"wp-image-274422\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7be04e0860859f32-5243229078116158-1024x658.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7be04e0860859f32-5243229078116158-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7be04e0860859f32-5243229078116158-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7be04e0860859f32-5243229078116158.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSDT\/\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Liquidity shortage<\/h2>\n<p>A CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost pointed to a fundamental issue \u2014 a structural lack of liquidity. After a $140bn surge in <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-stablecoins\">stablecoins<\/a>\u2019 market value since 2023, the trend reversed in December, he said.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Stablecoin Flows Collapse<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThese dynamics highlight the particularly challenging environment in which Bitcoin is currently operating, weighed down by a persistent lack of liquidity that has now been impacting the market for several months.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Darkfost_Coc<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/UNQAjN1s43\">pic.twitter.com\/UNQAjN1s43<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2018235512658481413?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Exchange flows reinforce the picture of investors stepping back:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>October:<\/strong> net inflows of stablecoins exceeded $9.7bn, helping propel bitcoin higher;<\/li>\n<li>Since November: inflows have given way to outflows. More than $4bn has been withdrawn from exchanges, $3.1bn of it from Binance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Darkfost called this a capitulation by late entrants. A critical juncture was also flagged by a CryptoQuant analyst using the moniker Arab Chain.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin on Binance: Elevated Volatility Signals a Critical Market Transition<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, a range z30 reading above +3 has often preceded strong price movements, either in the form of sharp upward breakouts or rapid downward moves.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArabxChain?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ArabxChain<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/BjGj90JrCC\">pic.twitter.com\/BjGj90JrCC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2018253908049580094?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He recorded a jump in Binance\u2019s z30 volatility gauge above +3. Historically, such readings have preceded strong price moves \u2014 either sharp breakouts or swift declines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk warns of an &#8216;extremely bearish&#8217; phase, citing 12\u201318\u2011month holders\u2019 behaviour.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93816,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Long-term holders face unrealised losses as bitcoin slips and liquidity dries up.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1205,1268,1326],"class_list":["post-93815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptoquant","tag-on-chain-analysis","tag-qcp-capital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"150","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Long-term holders face unrealised losses as bitcoin slips and liquidity dries up.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93815"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93815\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93817,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93815\/revisions\/93817"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93816"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}