{"id":93846,"date":"2026-02-03T10:27:40","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T07:27:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93846"},"modified":"2026-02-03T11:29:58","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T08:29:58","slug":"analyst-says-bitcoin-could-sink-to-40000-if-the-2022-pattern-repeats","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analyst-says-bitcoin-could-sink-to-40000-if-the-2022-pattern-repeats\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst Says Bitcoin \u0421ould Sink to $40,000 if the 2022 Pattern Repeats"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The leading cryptocurrency closed the weekly candle below <span data-descr=\"100-week simple moving average\" class=\"old_tooltip\">100SMA<\/span>, which runs near $87,500. Analyst Brett highlighted the loss of this key macro-trend support.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin has closed weekly below the 100W moving average. <\/p>\n<p>Outside of a black swan flash crash (COVID), Bitcoin has historically stayed below it for 182-532 days. <\/p>\n<p>Why does this matter? <\/p>\n<p>Be patient. Set limit orders. Don&#8217;t fomo. Have a strategy.<\/p>\n<p>The 100w is currently at\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pDzBM25lcA\">https:\/\/t.co\/pDzBM25lcA<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/YLTR2pHDfP\">pic.twitter.com\/YLTR2pHDfP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 \u20bfrett (@brett_eth) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/brett_eth\/status\/2018277266623545553?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He noted that the coin often lingers below this line for long stretches. The only exception was the brief 2020 crash. In other instances, the asset entered a prolonged accumulation phase:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>in 2014\u201315, price stayed below it for 357 days between $200 and $600;<\/li>\n<li>in 2018\u201319, the period lasted 182 days near the bear-market lows ($3,000\u2013$6,000);<\/li>\n<li>in 2022, after the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/greed-and-recklessness-why-the-ftx-collapse-is-being-likened-to-the-2008-crisis\">FTX collapse<\/a>, consolidation took 532 days ($16,000\u2013$25,000).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Only the brief pandemic-era plunge in 2020 broke the pattern. The current setup points to prolonged accumulation rather than a quick bounce.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The USDT dominance factor<\/h2>\n<p>An analyst using the pseudonym Sherlock warned of risks of a bearish turn.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin has 36 hours before the bear market officially starts.<\/p>\n<p>USDT dominance is about to close above 6.7% for the first time in 2.5 years.<\/p>\n<p>This is the level that started the bull market when it broke down in October 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Every retest of this resistance marked Bitcoin\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/WSLIAmgjZU\">pic.twitter.com\/WSLIAmgjZU<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Sherlock | DeFi Researcher (@Sherlockwhale) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Sherlockwhale\/status\/2017580445026705735?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">January 31, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Dominance of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-stablecoins\">stablecoin<\/a> USDT on the weekly chart has exceeded 7.2%. In prior cycles, a weekly close above 6.7% confirmed a downtrend. Such a breakout is the first in two and a half years.<\/p>\n<p>The $85,000 level is a serious barrier to upside, Sherlock says.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">$85,000 is about to become Bitcoin\u2019s biggest resistance for the next 6 months.<\/p>\n<p>Everyone who bought between $85K-$108K over the past 3 months is underwater. That\u2019s overhead supply. Trapped longs.<\/p>\n<p>When price rallies back to $85K, all those underwater will holders get their first\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/3MdWkzUt5J\">pic.twitter.com\/3MdWkzUt5J<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Sherlock | DeFi Researcher (@Sherlockwhale) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Sherlockwhale\/status\/2017965006675927201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In Q4 2025, spot trading volume between $85,000 and $95,000 topped $120bn. Many investors are underwater.<\/p>\n<p>At around $78,000, any rally to $85,000 is likely to meet selling from traders seeking to break even. The realized price for short-term holders (1\u20133 months) is $91,500.<\/p>\n<p>Market structure echoes a 2022 fractal. Back then, Bitcoin set lower highs and lost the 100-week SMA before a deep correction.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"554\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-90012208e03ab9ca-5319895573220194-1024x554.png\" alt=\"019c1ed1-8c35-7a5c-b907-16a6df478f13\" class=\"wp-image-274482\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-90012208e03ab9ca-5319895573220194-1024x554.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-90012208e03ab9ca-5319895573220194-300x162.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-90012208e03ab9ca-5319895573220194-768x415.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-90012208e03ab9ca-5319895573220194-1536x831.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-90012208e03ab9ca-5319895573220194-2048x1108.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/bitcoin-flash-crash-recovery-to-dollar100k-may-take-6-months-analyst\">Cointelegraph\/TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>If the pattern repeats, the price could fall to the $40,000\u2013$45,000 demand zone. Downside risk persists until a decisive reclaim of the moving average.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Alternative forecast: &#8216;air pocket&#8217;<\/h2>\n<p>The crypto market is nearing the end of its decline, writes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/02\/02\/crypto-bear-market-is-nearing-end-with-usd60k-as-key-bitcoin-floor-compass-point-analysts-say\">CoinDesk<\/a>, citing Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan. In their view, a much deeper drop would require a sell-off in the US stock market.<\/p>\n<p>The base case puts the trough at $60,000\u2013$68,000, with a turn near $65,000. In that zone, long-term holders (more than six months) acquired 7% of supply, providing strong support.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts call the $70,000\u2013$80,000 range an &#8216;air pocket&#8217;. In this corridor, long-term investors bought less than 1% of coins, leaving little structural support and the risk of further selling pressure.<\/p>\n<p>The slide below $81,000 reflects the average entry price for holders of Bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> shares and the broader market. Since January 15, net fund outflows have totaled $3bn. More than 50% of assets under management are in the red. The $81,000\u2013$83,000 zone now acts as resistance.<\/p>\n<p>The worst case is a drop to $55,000. That is the average acquisition price across all historical buyers. In 2022, breaking that level required a bear market in equities and high-profile crypto bankruptcies.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Cantor Fitzgerald <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cantor-fitzgerald-crypto-winter-to-bolster-institutional-players\">suggested<\/a> that digital assets are entering the early stage of a prolonged slump.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin closed the week below the 100-week simple moving average near $87,500, analyst Brett noted.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93847,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin below the 100-week average; $40k risk and an 'air pocket' near $70k\u2013$80k","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1138],"class_list":["post-93846","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"124","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin below the 100-week average; $40k risk and an 'air pocket' near $70k\u2013$80k","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93846","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93846"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93846\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93854,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93846\/revisions\/93854"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93847"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93846"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93846"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93846"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}