{"id":93855,"date":"2026-02-03T12:05:39","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T09:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93855"},"modified":"2026-02-03T12:11:20","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T09:11:20","slug":"galaxy-digital-warns-bitcoin-could-drop-to-56000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/galaxy-digital-warns-bitcoin-could-drop-to-56000\/","title":{"rendered":"Galaxy Digital warns bitcoin could drop to $56,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>With few catalysts and persistent selling pressure, bitcoin risks falling to $56,000\u201358,000, says Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"zxx\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/78ZeeODAOF\">https:\/\/t.co\/78ZeeODAOF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/intangiblecoins\/status\/2018382912811364641?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Between January 28th and 31st bitcoin fell 15%, hitting a local low of $75,644. The sharp move triggered more than $2bn of futures long liquidations\u2014among the largest such events on record.<\/p>\n<p>Prices slipped below the average purchase price of US spot bitcoin-<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a> shares ($84,000) and breached the cost basis of coins on Strategy\u2019s balance sheet ($76,037).<\/p>\n<p>January marked a fourth consecutive red month for the asset, a run last seen in 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Thorn noted a \u201cgap\u201d in the distribution of coins between $70,000 and $82,000. A test of the lower bound looks likely.<\/p>\n<p>If the decline continues, the next key supports are:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>$58,000 \u2014 the 200-week moving average (<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-moving-average-and-how-is-it-used-in-crypto\">MA<\/a>);<\/li>\n<li>$56,000 \u2014 bitcoin\u2019s realised price (the average price of the last on-chain move for all coins).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cHistorically these levels have marked market-cycle bottoms and offered an excellent entry point for long-term investors,\u201d the researcher said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>At the time of writing the report, 46% of bitcoin holders were underwater. Thorn stressed that the current drawdown from the all-time high is 38%. Apart from 2017, 40% declines have always deepened to 50% or more within three months.<\/p>\n<p>Outflows from ETFs add pressure. Over the past two weeks the funds have shed $2.8bn.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst also pointed to the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/experts-question-bitcoins-role-as-digital-gold\">failure of the narrative<\/a> of bitcoin as a hedge against fiat debasement. Against geopolitical instability and debt woes, investors have favoured traditional metals\u2014gold and silver\u2014over digital gold.<\/p>\n<p>The only positive signal, he said, is a slowdown in profit-taking by long-term HODLers. Yet there are still no signs of meaningful whale accumulation.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demand for bitcoin wanes<\/h2>\n<p>An analyst known as Darkfost said spot demand is drying up. On Binance, trading volume in the leading cryptocurrency has fallen from $200bn (in October) to $104bn.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\uddde\ufe0f Spot demand Is drying up : Bitcoin enters its 5th month of correction<\/p>\n<p>We are now entering the 5th consecutive month of correction for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p>This correction has been largely driven by the October 10th event, which led to a massive destruction of liquidity, particularly in\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rX2keResNG\">pic.twitter.com\/rX2keResNG<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2018398580596232236?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Metrics have fallen back to early-2024 lows.<\/p>\n<p>Outflows of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-stablecoins\">stablecoins<\/a> from exchanges are also weighing. Their market capitalisation has dropped by roughly $10bn.<\/p>\n<p>Justin d\u2019Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, <a href=\"https:\/\/cointelegraph.com\/news\/crypto-volume-contraction-sends-markets-back-to-2024-levels-analyst\">linked<\/a> the current troubles to macroeconomics. Uncertainty around the policy of the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Federal Reserve<\/span> and the possible <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/trump-nominates-crypto-friendly-kevin-warsh-to-lead-the-fed\">appointment<\/a> of Kevin Warsh threaten a stronger dollar. That hurts risk assets.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, d\u2019Anethan called the market\u2019s decline \u201ca bitter but necessary medicine\u201d. The correction will flush out excess leverage and cool speculation.<\/p>\n<p>Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, thinks bitcoin has not yet bottomed. In his view, the turn comes when short-term holders realise losses below the realised price of long-term investors. That has not happened yet.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The Bitcoin price bottom only happens when\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2705 Short-Term Holders are in loss (this has already happened)<br \/>\u23f3 Long-Term Holders start carrying losses (this has not happened yet \u2014 this is when the real bottom forms))<\/p>\n<p>Additionally:<br \/>\ud83d\udd34 The bear market only ends when the STH\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xbuKAgem1O\">pic.twitter.com\/xbuKAgem1O<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joao_wedson\/status\/2018382790371242324?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 2, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Wedson warned that a drop below the $74,000 support could push bitcoin into bear\u2011market territory.<\/p>\n<p>At press time the leading cryptocurrency traded at $78,696 (+2.5% over 24 hours).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-30fe661e2c8c0ace-5325705865731744-1024x658.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2026-02-03_11-07-46\" class=\"wp-image-274494\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-30fe661e2c8c0ace-5325705865731744-1024x658.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-30fe661e2c8c0ace-5325705865731744-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-30fe661e2c8c0ace-5325705865731744-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-30fe661e2c8c0ace-5325705865731744.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15\u2011minute BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>In February, Bernstein analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bernstein-predicts-a-60000-floor-for-bitcoin\">forecast<\/a> a $60,000 floor for bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With few catalysts and persistent selling, bitcoin could drop to $56,000\u201358,000, Galaxy says.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93856,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Galaxy Digital\u2019s Alex Thorn warns bitcoin could fall to $56k\u201358k amid weak demand and ETF outflows.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,770],"class_list":["post-93855","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-galaxy-digital"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"152","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Galaxy Digital\u2019s Alex Thorn warns bitcoin could fall to $56k\u201358k amid weak demand and ETF outflows.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93855","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93855"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93855\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93857,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93855\/revisions\/93857"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}