{"id":93930,"date":"2026-02-04T16:52:25","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T13:52:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93930"},"modified":"2026-02-04T18:17:49","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T15:17:49","slug":"technical-analyst-flags-signal-for-bitcoin-to-drop-to-68000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/technical-analyst-flags-signal-for-bitcoin-to-drop-to-68000\/","title":{"rendered":"Technical Analyst Flags Signal Pointing to Bitcoin Drop Toward $68,000"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On bitcoin\u2019s weekly chart, the price fell below the 100-<span data-descr=\"weekly exponential moving average\" class=\"old_tooltip\">WEMA<\/span> after slipping under $85,000. This signal has previously preceded a steep decline, noted analyst Ted Pillows.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> has always retested 200W EMA after losing 100W EMA.<\/p>\n<p>200W EMA currently sits at $68,400. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/plIDepViox\">pic.twitter.com\/plIDepViox<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ted (@TedPillows) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TedPillows\/status\/2019014824429048007?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 4, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He estimates the price could drop to the 200-WEMA around $68,400.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin trades around $76,100, having slightly recovered after <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-slumps-to-its-lowest-since-november-2024\">a drop to $73,000<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1c0e8635a2437f96-5429318150981698.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-274610\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Over the past 24 hours, the price fell 2.9%; it is down 14.8% over the week.<\/p>\n<p>An analyst going by Quinten called the current cycle \u201cthe most disappointing\u201d in bitcoin\u2019s history.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Most disappointing cycle in history <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/VvDa5fwewG\">pic.twitter.com\/VvDa5fwewG<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/QuintenFrancois\/status\/2018911649739280409?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 4, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>As the chart shows, after the 2012, 2016 and 2020 halvings, bitcoin mostly trended higher. Since April 2024, the pattern has been the opposite.<\/p>\n<p>The analyst also pointed to record oversold conditions \u2014 the reading fell below levels seen during the COVID-19 crash.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin is MORE oversold than during the COVID crash \ud83d\udea8 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hCpz9uOMFN\">pic.twitter.com\/hCpz9uOMFN<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/QuintenFrancois\/status\/2018745706677244366?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 3, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Some <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/WhiteOakFX\/status\/2018825075936604262\">believe<\/a> bitcoin faces an even deeper correction in the coming days.<\/p>\n<p>An analyst known as BitcoinHabebe <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Bitcoinhabebe\/status\/2018780494276579531\">called<\/a> a slide toward the head-and-shoulders target at $60,000 \u201cexpected,\u201d citing a number of macroeconomic factors.<\/p>\n<p>An analyst under the pseudonym 0xLanister forecast an even deeper drop. In his view, the emerging chart pattern presents an \u201cextremely alarming picture.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Very scary picture: if this technical analysis figure &#8220;head and shoulders&#8221; works \u2014 Bitcoin price will drop to $40,000<\/p>\n<p>It seems that Binance and CZ provoked a bear market in crypto. Again. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/LukyEQ1vp9\">pic.twitter.com\/LukyEQ1vp9<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 0xLanister (@0xLanister) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/0xLanister\/status\/2018938055495757867?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 4, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe price of bitcoin could fall to $40,000,\u201d he noted. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, an analyst known as Brett <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-says-bitcoin-could-sink-to-40000-if-the-2022-pattern-repeats\">flagged<\/a> a possible correction to this level.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">New risks<\/h2>\n<p>QCP <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qcpgroup.com\/insights\/qcp-market-colour\/\">linked<\/a> bitcoin\u2019s latest rebound to the removal of the threat of another US government shutdown. The House of Representatives approved a $1.2 trillion funding package by a narrow margin.<\/p>\n<p>The shutdown-related pressure has eased, but only temporarily, the firm stressed. Funding for the Department of Homeland Security was extended only until 13 February, creating a potential \u201ctrap\u201d with a new deadline in the near term.<\/p>\n<p>Tensions around the Fed have also risen. President Donald Trump\u2019s nomination of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/trump-nominates-crypto-friendly-kevin-warsh-to-lead-the-fed\">Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair<\/a> has brought to the fore risks tied to a potential shift in the regulator\u2019s policy stance.<\/p>\n<p>If investors start to expect a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle in the second half of the year, that could lend limited support to risk assets and pressure the dollar.<\/p>\n<p>But the focus will shift to the Fed\u2019s balance-sheet policy. Warsh is known as a proponent of quantitative tightening <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/why-do-federal-reserve-decisions-move-bitcoins-price\">(QT<\/a>).<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWarsh has made clear his preference for a faster balance-sheet run-off, which directly affects the repo market. An unpleasant reminder: when reserves become scarce in the \u2018wrong\u2019 places, stress can surface abruptly,\u201d the analysts warned. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cautious sentiment<\/h2>\n<p>The options market confirms a broadly cautious mood. Key indicators suggest investors are bracing for elevated volatility in the near term:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>high short-term volatility:<\/strong> implied volatility remains elevated despite a local price bounce;<\/li>\n<li><strong>term-structure shift:<\/strong> short-dated options priced richer than long-dated ones \u2014 a classic sign the market sees near-term risks as elevated;<\/li>\n<li><strong>crash protection in demand<\/strong>: a sharp skew toward puts, and strategies geared to outsized moves remain expensive. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>From a technical standpoint, $75,000 is a key psychological and technical level for bitcoin, QCP said.<\/p>\n<p>If the price holds above that mark and related indicators (for example, funding rates in futures markets) normalise, that would set conditions for rebuilding positions and could be read as a signal to add risk selectively.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cIf the level is broken, investor sentiment could quickly turn defensive,\u201d the experts concluded. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitwise-cio-says-the-full%e2%80%91blown-crypto-winter-is-nearing-its-end\">said<\/a> the current market downturn is closer to the end than the beginning.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the weekly chart, bitcoin fell below the 100-WEMA after losing $85,000 \u2014 a signal that has previously preceded sharp declines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93931,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Analysts flag risk of a drop toward $68,400 as bitcoin slips below the 100-WEMA.","creation_source":"ai_translated","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1138,1253],"class_list":["post-93930","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-opinions","tag-technical-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"170","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Analysts flag risk of a drop toward $68,400 as bitcoin slips below the 100-WEMA.","is_update":"0","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93930","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93930"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93930\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93939,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93930\/revisions\/93939"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93930"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93930"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93930"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}