{"id":93945,"date":"2026-02-04T19:29:24","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T16:29:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=93945"},"modified":"2026-02-04T19:30:28","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T16:30:28","slug":"k33-dismisses-80-bitcoin-decline-from-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/k33-dismisses-80-bitcoin-decline-from-peak\/","title":{"rendered":"K33 Dismisses 80% Bitcoin Decline from Peak"},"content":{"rendered":"

Despite recent price trends showing an “alarming similarity” to the sell-offs of 2018 and 2022, a deep 80% decline from the peaks is unlikely, according to a report<\/a> by K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its October 2025 highs of around $126,000. Over the past week alone, amid heightened global risk aversion, the asset lost 11%, the expert noted.<\/p>\n

This market scenario might evoke associations with previous deep corrections within four-year cycles. Lunde believes the current situation differs from past significant declines due to institutional adoption, regulated product inflows, and easing interest rates.<\/p>\n

However, concerns about a cycle repetition could become self-fulfilling, the analyst warned. Currently, long-term holders are reducing positions to lock in some profits, while new capital hesitates to enter the market, thus increasing selling pressure.<\/p>\n

Even in this environment, K33 does not anticipate a deep correction akin to past bear markets. This is supported by positive macro fundamentals and the absence of “dangerous” players like FTX<\/a> or Terra<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Is the Bottom Nearing?\u00a0<\/h2>\n

Meanwhile, several indicators traditionally associated with market bottoms have begun to emerge. On February 2, the percentile of Bitcoin’s spot trading volume exceeded 90 at over $8 billion. Simultaneously, following a wave of long position liquidations in derivatives markets, open interest and funding rates fell into a highly negative zone.<\/p>\n

The combination of these factors has historically coincided with trend reversals, Lunde explained. However, the signals are not definitive: similar extreme values were observed during “false” rallies and mid-cycle pauses.<\/p>\n

According to the expert’s calculations, a critically important support zone is around $74,000. A break below this level could accelerate a downward move towards the November 2021 peak of approximately $69,000. In the longer term, a retreat may continue towards the 200-week moving average near $58,000.<\/p>\n

\n

“We will react quickly if the current support level is breached, but we do not expect a repeat of the 2018 or 2022 situation. Instead, we view current prices as attractive entry levels for any investor with a long-term approach,” Lunde emphasized.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Earlier, analyst Ted Pillows noted<\/a> that Bitcoin’s weekly chart had fallen below the 100-WEMA<\/span>. Previously, this signal preceded a significant decline.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Although recent price trends show an “alarming similarity” to the sell-offs of 2018 and 2022, a deep 80% decline from the peaks is unlikely, according to a report by K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":93946,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"K33 Research dismisses the likelihood of an 80% Bitcoin decline from its peak.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1167,1138],"class_list":["post-93945","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-k33","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"178","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"K33 Research dismisses the likelihood of an 80% Bitcoin decline from its peak.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93945","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=93945"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93945\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93947,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93945\/revisions\/93947"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/93946"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=93945"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=93945"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=93945"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}