{"id":94082,"date":"2026-02-09T13:00:16","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T10:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94082"},"modified":"2026-02-09T13:05:27","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T10:05:27","slug":"sharpe-ratio-signals-final-stage-of-bear-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/sharpe-ratio-signals-final-stage-of-bear-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Sharpe Ratio Signals Final Stage of Bear Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Sharpe ratio for the leading cryptocurrency has dropped to -10, the lowest since March 2023. CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost believes that the indicator&#8217;s move into negative territory historically signals the final stage of a bear market.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcca The Sharpe ratio has just entered a particularly interesting zone, one that has historically aligned with the final phases of bear markets.<\/p>\n<p>This is not a signal that the bear market is over, but rather that we are approaching a point where the risk to reward profile is\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w4EmsRZYlW\">pic.twitter.com\/w4EmsRZYlW<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2020113081502728574?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 7, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Similar values were recorded at the price bottoms of the cycles in late 2018 and 2022. In November 2025, the indicator fell to zero when Bitcoin found a local minimum at $82,000.<\/p>\n<p>The Sharpe ratio helps assess investment efficiency adjusted for risk.<\/p>\n<p>Although investment risks currently still outweigh potential profits, this trend usually precedes a trend reversal. Darkfost warned that this phase could last several months, and Bitcoin&#8217;s price may continue to correct before a full-fledged growth begins.<\/p>\n<p>10x Research shares a similar view.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff \u2013 Is a Final Washout Still Ahead?<\/p>\n<p>The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/qv1ZbR1uQl\">pic.twitter.com\/qv1ZbR1uQl<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 10x Research (@10x_Research) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/10x_Research\/status\/2020638067204534570?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 8, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Analysts noted extreme sentiment indicator values while maintaining a broad downward trend. Without clear growth drivers, experts see no reason for urgent purchases.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Decline in Interest and &#8216;Extreme Fear&#8217;<\/h2>\n<p>Global user interest in cryptocurrencies on Google has fallen to annual lows. The decline in search activity coincides with capital outflows from the digital asset market.<\/p>\n<p>According to Google Trends, the search term &#8220;cryptocurrency&#8221; dropped to 27 out of 100. The peak activity was in August 2025, when the market capitalization reached a historic high of $4.2 trillion (currently about $2.4 trillion).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"340\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c530c5107706ab2e-5847230917023260-1024x340.png\" alt=\"Screenshot 2026-02-09 120459\" class=\"wp-image-274862\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c530c5107706ab2e-5847230917023260-1024x340.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c530c5107706ab2e-5847230917023260-300x100.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c530c5107706ab2e-5847230917023260-768x255.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-c530c5107706ab2e-5847230917023260.png 1411w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?q=Crypto&#038;hl=en\">Google Trends<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-cryptos-fear-and-greed-index\">The Cryptocurrency Sentiment Index<\/a> is in the &#8220;extreme fear&#8221; zone (14 points). On February 7, the indicator dropped to 6.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f1425971f7d2efa-5847250351383048.webp\" alt=\"Screenshot 2026-02-09 121120\" class=\"wp-image-274863\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/alternative.me\/crypto\/fear-and-greed-index\/\">Alternative<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Santiment analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/app.santiment.net\/insights\/read\/this-week-in-crypto-full-written-summary-w1-february-2026-10534\">described<\/a> the crowd sentiment as &#8220;fiercely bearish.&#8221; The number of negative comments on social media reached a peak since December 1, indicating traders&#8217; attempts to find bottom signals.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8216;Whale&#8217; Accumulation<\/h2>\n<p>Large players used the recent market correction for aggressive accumulation of the leading cryptocurrency. This was stated by on-chain analyst under the pseudonym CW8900.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Whales have been accumulating massive amounts of Bitcoin during the recent drop.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cOn February 6th, 66.94k <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> in-flowed to accumulator addresses. This was the largest inflow amount in this cycle.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CW8900?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CW8900<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/F4YkRjTNcp\">pic.twitter.com\/F4YkRjTNcp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2020750670735819123?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The price drop triggered large-scale purchases. Investors moved coins to <span data-descr=\"wallets that historically only acquire assets and do not participate in sales\" class=\"old_tooltip\">special accumulation addresses<\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>According to the expert, on February 6, these wallets received 66,940 BTC. The analyst noted that this is the largest inflow for the current market cycle.<\/p>\n<p>On February 6, the price of the leading cryptocurrency <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tests-60000-support-triggering-billion%e2%80%91dollar-liquidations\">fell to $60,000<\/a>, marking a new low since September 2024.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Sharpe ratio for the leading cryptocurrency fell to -10, which analyst Darkfost believes signals the final stage of a bear market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94083,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin hits -10, indicating final bear market stage, says analyst.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1146,1205,1145],"class_list":["post-94082","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"117","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Sharpe ratio for Bitcoin hits -10, indicating final bear market stage, says analyst.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94082","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94082"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94082\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94084,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94082\/revisions\/94084"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94083"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94082"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94082"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94082"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}