{"id":94128,"date":"2026-02-10T15:20:44","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T12:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94128"},"modified":"2026-02-10T15:25:17","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T12:25:17","slug":"amberdata-highlights-lack-of-bitcoin-investor-capitulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/amberdata-highlights-lack-of-bitcoin-investor-capitulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Amberdata Highlights Lack of Bitcoin Investor Capitulation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The bitcoin futures market suggests a potential further decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. This conclusion was <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.amberdata.io\/bitcoin-volatility-surges-as-macro-data-and-derivatives-signals-align\">reached<\/a> by Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Amberdata.<\/p>\n<p>According to the expert, the weak reaction in the futures basis indicates that true investor capitulation has yet to occur.<\/p>\n<p>Magadini explained his forecast by examining the dynamics of the price difference (basis) between futures and the spot market:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>historically, the bottom of a bear cycle is accompanied by a deep discount of futures to spot;<\/li>\n<li>during the latest price drop, the basis of 90-day contracts changed little;<\/li>\n<li>currently, the indicator is about 4%, which corresponds to the risk-free yield of U.S. Treasury bonds.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The analyst compared the current situation to the end of 2022. At that time, bitcoin found a bottom below $20,000, and futures traded at a 9% discount. According to Magadini, the current market structure leaves room for another wave of decline before the final capitulation.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Return of American Buyers<\/h2>\n<p>The recovery of the leading cryptocurrency&#8217;s quotes after the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tests-60000-support-triggering-billion%e2%80%91dollar-liquidations\">drop<\/a> to $60,000 coincided with a reversal of a key demand indicator in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the spread between bitcoin&#8217;s price on the U.S. exchange Coinbase and its average global rate, sharply recovered. At the peak of the sell-off, the indicator fell to -0.22%, but by February 10, it rose to -0.05%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"525\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-08432501b957f293-5942181885070744-1024x525.png\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2026-02-10 143245\" class=\"wp-image-274938\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-08432501b957f293-5942181885070744-1024x525.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-08432501b957f293-5942181885070744-300x154.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-08432501b957f293-5942181885070744-768x394.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-08432501b957f293-5942181885070744.png 1348w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/pro\/i\/coinbase-bitcoin-premium-index\">CoinGlass<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Although the metric remains in negative territory, the trend indicates the return of American investors. Market participants took advantage of a buy-the-dip strategy after the easing of seller pressure.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts view Coinbase Premium as a proxy for assessing institutional and dollar capital flows. A deep discount usually signals aggressive selling by U.S. players or their exit from the market.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The recovery of the index to neutral values suggests that buyers once again see value in the asset after price stabilization.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What&#8217;s Happening with Bitcoin?<\/h2>\n<p>At the time of writing, digital gold is trading at $69,063 (+0.2% for the day). The drop from the October high is over 45%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-feabc80a360803d0-5942206913721784-1024x658.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2026-02-10_14-36-03\" class=\"wp-image-274939\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-feabc80a360803d0-5942206913721784-1024x658.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-feabc80a360803d0-5942206913721784-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-feabc80a360803d0-5942206913721784-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-feabc80a360803d0-5942206913721784.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSDT\/\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Tim Sun, Senior Researcher at HashKey Group, noted in a comment to Decrypt that the rate of price decline is slowing. However, there is no clear signal of a trend reversal yet. The market continues to be pressured by low liquidity and regulatory uncertainty.<\/p>\n<p>Sun clarified that the accumulation of coins by large players only restrains the fall but does not guarantee immediate growth.<\/p>\n<p>BTSE&#8217;s Chief Operating Officer Jeff Mei expressed a more optimistic view. He believes the sell-off has already begun to reverse, and further recovery depends on the actions of institutional investors and the easing of global financial tensions.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Bernstein <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bernstein-labels-current-bitcoin-correction-as-weakest-in-history\">described<\/a> the current bitcoin correction as &#8220;the weakest in history,&#8221; and the <span data-descr=\"an indicator that helps assess investment performance adjusted for risk\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Sharpe ratio<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sharpe-ratio-signals-final-stage-of-bear-market\">pointed<\/a> to the final stage of the bear market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The bitcoin futures market suggests a potential further decline in the price of the leading cryptocurrency. This conclusion was reached by Greg Magadini from Amberdata.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94129,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin futures market hints at further price decline, says Amberdata's Greg Magadini.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-94128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"129","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin futures market hints at further price decline, says Amberdata's Greg Magadini.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94128"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94128\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94130,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94128\/revisions\/94130"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94129"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}