{"id":94153,"date":"2026-02-11T10:32:20","date_gmt":"2026-02-11T07:32:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94153"},"modified":"2026-02-12T11:09:08","modified_gmt":"2026-02-12T08:09:08","slug":"glassnode-calls-bitcoins-current-drawdown-moderate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/glassnode-calls-bitcoins-current-drawdown-moderate\/","title":{"rendered":"Glassnode Calls Bitcoin\u2019s Current Drawdown \u2018Moderate\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Glassnode analysts say the current crypto market structure resembles the 2015\u201317 cycle, marked by \u201cmoderate drawdowns\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1535\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The October peak may have ended the bull phase, they add. In that case, the ensuing pullbacks look modest and echo the pattern seen seven years ago.<\/p>\n<p>At $69,000, unrealised losses amounted to roughly 17% of market capitalisation.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"glassnode\/1534\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Researchers stressed that current investor positioning mirrors the structure of early May 2022.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin trades at $67,154, down 3.1% over the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7c97fdfda8f78806-6011199717580282-1024x658.png\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2026-02-11_09-25-26\" class=\"wp-image-274976\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7c97fdfda8f78806-6011199717580282-1024x658.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7c97fdfda8f78806-6011199717580282-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7c97fdfda8f78806-6011199717580282-768x493.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7c97fdfda8f78806-6011199717580282.png 1429w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSDT\/\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Wintermute\u2019s view<\/h2>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-market-maker\">Market maker<\/a> Wintermute said bitcoin has erased all gains accrued after Donald Trump\u2019s victory in the November 2024 US presidential election.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"zxx\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/kzr5QYb0L1\">https:\/\/t.co\/kzr5QYb0L1<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Wintermute (@wintermute_t) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/wintermute_t\/status\/2021152048931361170?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 10, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>According to its analysts, the sell-off was driven by pressure from US capital, heavy outflows from spot <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a>s and a shift of liquidity into artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n<p>Over the weekend, liquidations topped $2.7 billion. Bitcoin fell through $80,000 for the first time since April 2025, then <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tests-60000-support-triggering-billion%e2%80%91dollar-liquidations\">plunged to $60,000<\/a> before later rebounding towards $70,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The asset is down 50% from its all-time high \u2014 the deepest drawdown since 2022.<\/p>\n<p>Wintermute highlighted three triggers for the rout:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The nomination of Kevin Warsh <a href=\"http:\/\/forklog.com\/news\/tramp-vydvigaet-na-post-glavy-frs-druzhelyubnogo-k-kriptovalyutam-kevina-uorsha\">as head<\/a> of <span data-descr=\"United States Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">the Fed<\/span>.<\/li>\n<li>Disappointing reports from tech giants (the <span data-descr=\"a group of the seven largest and most influential US technology companies\" class=\"old_tooltip\">\u2018Magnificent Seven\u2019<\/span>).<\/li>\n<li>A correction in precious metals.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Seller pressure<\/h2>\n<p>Capital flows point to structural selling by US investors. The Coinbase Premium (the price gap between Coinbase and the global market) has been negative since December, underscoring persistent selling pressure in the United States.<\/p>\n<p>Institutional support \u2014 once a key driver of gains \u2014 has dried up. Since November, net outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs have reached $6.2 billion, the longest stretch of redemptions since launch.<\/p>\n<p>BlackRock\u2019s IBIT fund has been a key source of pressure. When investors redeem, issuers must sell coins into a falling market, feeding a downward spiral.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Capital shifts to AI<\/h2>\n<p>Wintermute ties crypto\u2019s weakness to the boom in artificial intelligence. AI projects are absorbing spare capital at the expense of other risk assets.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s performance now correlates with software developers\u2019 shares. Strip AI from the Nasdaq, and crypto\u2019s negative correlation largely disappears. A cooling of AI mania may be needed to rekindle interest in digital assets.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook and what could turn the tide<\/h2>\n<p>The market has undergone a capitulation: volatility spiked and excess leverage was flushed out. A swift V-shaped recovery, however, is unlikely. Unrealised losses across digital-asset treasuries have reached $25 billion.<\/p>\n<p>Wintermute sees a durable rebound as unlikely until three conditions are met:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Coinbase Premium turns positive;<\/li>\n<li>ETF inflows resume;<\/li>\n<li>basis rates stabilise.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In the near term, expect elevated volatility as the market searches for equilibrium. Institutional flows via ETFs and derivatives will continue to set the tone.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Saylor: bitcoin will beat the S&amp;P 500<\/h2>\n<p>Strategy founder <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/michael-saylor-the-microstrategy-founders-biography-and-views\">Michael Saylor<\/a> said bitcoin will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2026\/02\/10\/strategys-michael-saylor-we-wont-be-selling-bitcoin-well-be-buying-every-quarter-forever.html\">retain<\/a> its edge over traditional assets in the coming years. The current drawdown does not alter the firm\u2019s strategy of accumulating coins.<\/p>\n<p>In an interview with CNBC, he predicted that over the long run the digital gold will outperform the main stock indices by a wide margin.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cI think that over the next four to eight years, bitcoin will outperform the S&amp;P by two or three times,\u201d he said.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Despite the downturn, the firm continues to add to its treasury. On 9 February, Strategy <a href=\"https:\/\/t.me\/forklog\/47164\">reported<\/a> buying another 1,142 BTC for about $90m.<\/p>\n<p>That brings its total holdings to 714,644 BTC \u2014 more than 3.4% of bitcoin\u2019s supply.<\/p>\n<p>Saylor dismissed fears that price pressure could force the company to sell.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWe are not going to sell. We will be buying bitcoin. I expect we will buy bitcoin every quarter forever,\u201d he stressed.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Volatility, he added, is part of the asset\u2019s appeal. Investors with multi-year horizons should focus on long-term efficiency rather than short-term swings.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What about ether?<\/h2>\n<p>Large Ethereum holders keep adding despite prices falling below their average entry. That is according to on-chain analyst CW8900.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Ethereum has Fallen Below the Realized Price of the Accumulation Addresses<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe current price is below the price at which they began accumulating. Furthermore, their accumulation is proceeding even more aggressively.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CW8900?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CW8900<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Link \u2935\ufe0f<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CXLpY9rKzC\">https:\/\/t.co\/CXLpY9rKzC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JbBlwSzKHT\">pic.twitter.com\/JbBlwSzKHT<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2021466227059916936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Per the analyst, the market value of the second-largest cryptocurrency has dropped below the realised price of accumulation addresses \u2014 meaning it trades beneath the levels where big players built core positions.<\/p>\n<p>Retail traders often panic when going \u201cunderwater\u201d. Whales react differently: rather than halting purchases, they step them up.<\/p>\n<p>The large-scale accumulation phase in ether began in June 2025 and has continued since, CW8900 noted, highlighting two points:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The current price is below the starting point of accumulation.<\/li>\n<li>Buying is now faster than at the outset.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>In his view, big capital sees the correction as a chance to buy size at favourable prices and average in.<\/p>\n<p>Ether trades at $1,947 (\u22123% over 24 hours).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"658\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6436bf5a72c4ad60-6011315490530136-1024x658.png\" alt=\"ETHUSDT_2026-02-11_09-48-42\" class=\"wp-image-274977\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6436bf5a72c4ad60-6011315490530136-1024x658.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6436bf5a72c4ad60-6011315490530136-300x193.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6436bf5a72c4ad60-6011315490530136-768x494.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-6436bf5a72c4ad60-6011315490530136.png 1428w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">15-minute chart of ETH\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3AETHUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier, Amberdata <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/amberdata-highlights-lack-of-bitcoin-investor-capitulation\">noted<\/a> no signs of capitulation among bitcoin investors.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Glassnode says the current crypto market structure resembles 2015\u201317, marked by \u201cmoderate drawdowns\u201d.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94154,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Glassnode likens the market to 2015\u201317, with \u2018moderate drawdowns\u2019.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1205,1273,1145,1149],"class_list":["post-94153","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptoquant","tag-glassnode","tag-market-analysis","tag-wintermute"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"185","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Glassnode likens the market to 2015\u201317, with \u2018moderate drawdowns\u2019.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94153","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94153"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94153\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94159,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94153\/revisions\/94159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94154"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94153"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94153"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94153"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}