{"id":94249,"date":"2026-02-13T13:17:48","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T10:17:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94249"},"modified":"2026-02-13T13:21:42","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T10:21:42","slug":"cryptoquant-sees-scant-evidence-of-a-bitcoin-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/cryptoquant-sees-scant-evidence-of-a-bitcoin-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant sees scant evidence of a Bitcoin bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>CryptoQuant analysts doubt that bitcoin\u2019s correction has run its course. Despite heavy loss realisation, on-chain metrics have yet to confirm a structural bottom.<\/p>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/telegram.org\/js\/telegram-widget.js?22\" data-telegram-post=\"cryptoquant_official\/3444\" data-width=\"100%\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On February 5, bitcoin holders realised $5.4bn in losses\u2014the most since March 2023. In coin terms, however, losses totalled just 0.3m BTC, compared with 1.1m BTC during the late\u20112022 capitulation.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts highlighted several factors that point to further downside risk:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Share of coins in profit. <\/strong>The current level is 55%. Historical cycle lows formed when the metric fell to 45\u201350%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Behaviour of long-term holders (LTH). <\/strong>This cohort is selling at break-even. Market bottoms typically coincide with LTH realising losses of 30\u201340%.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Cycle phase.<\/strong> The <span data-descr=\"a metric of market-trend strength that measures the difference between the profitability index and its 365-day moving average to determine the current market cycle. It signals a bull cycle when above 0, and a bear cycle when below 0 and below the 365-day moving average\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Bull-Bear Market Cycle<\/span> indicator is in bear territory but has not yet fallen into the \u201cextremely bearish\u201d zone associated with the start of reversals.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p>Bitcoin trades 18% above the realised price ($55,000). In past cycles, prices fell 24\u201330% below that level before a 4\u20136 month accumulation phase.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bearish risks<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu flagged another warning: the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (<a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoquant.com\/community\/dashboard\/67e37e07f3ae1b2f63c28572\">BCMI<\/a>) has fallen to 0.2. Historically, such readings have aligned with the early stages of bear cycles, as in 2018 and 2022.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin BCMI \u2014 How Close Are We to a Buy Zone?<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe data increasingly supports a bear market transition scenario, not a simple correction\u2026 From a cycle perspective, true bottom conditions may still be ahead.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Woo_Minkyu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Woo_Minkyu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/8hNnXOkZF3\">pic.twitter.com\/8hNnXOkZF3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2021851644980265109?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He noted that current market action differs from a typical mid\u2011cycle correction. In October, the metric held a neutral 0.5, but that structure broke down. There was no rebound from 0.3\u2014declines continued without recovery phases. The pattern resembles a shift to risk\u2011off behaviour.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, cycle lows formed at lower BCMI readings:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>0.10\u20130.15 in 2019;<\/li>\n<li>around 0.15 in 2022\u20132023.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Current prints remain above capitulation zones. That suggests the conditions for a final bottom have not yet materialised, even if the market has already entered a bear phase.<\/p>\n<p>The BCMI aggregates valuation (<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a>), profitability (<span data-descr=\"net unrealized profit\/loss\" class=\"old_tooltip\">NUPL<\/span>), participant behaviour (<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/sopr-finding-bitcoins-highs-and-lows\">SOPR<\/a>) and sentiment. A drop to 0.2 reflects shrinking unrealised profits and realised losses. The \u201cextreme panic\u201d stage (around 0.1) has not been reached.<\/p>\n<p>According to Woominkyu, the data support a trend\u2011transition scenario. Without a rebound of the index to 0.4\u20130.5, the probability of further bitcoin weakness remains high.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin approaches the undervalued zone<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan reached similar conclusions. He noted that bitcoin has been trending lower for roughly four months and is nearing the \u201cundervalued zone.\u201d<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin Approaching the Undervalued Zone<\/p>\n<p>\u201cGenerally, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is regarded as undervalued. At present, the indicator stands at around 1.1, suggesting that price levels are nearing the undervaluation range.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DanCoinInvestor?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@DanCoinInvestor<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/msSUdNDwk3\">pic.twitter.com\/msSUdNDwk3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2022215693949886717?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 13, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He based the view on the MVRV indicator, now around 1.1. Historically, a dip below 1 has signalled undervaluation.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto Dan pointed to a key difference in the current cycle: during the last rally, bitcoin did not reach an extreme overbought zone. As a result, the present correction may differ structurally from past bottoming episodes.<\/p>\n<p>He added that for long\u2011term allocations, accumulating during drawdowns increases the odds of success.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outflows from bitcoin ETFs<\/h2>\n<p>On February 12, net outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin\u2011<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a>s totalled $410.37m.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-bb7d46cd2038ed50-6194046999748919.webp\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2026-02-13 124413\" class=\"wp-image-275129\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Over two days, investors pulled $686.67m from the products. Notably, none of the 12 funds saw inflows.<\/p>\n<p>BlackRock\u2019s IBIT led outflows with $157.56m, followed by Fidelity\u2019s FBTC with $104.13m. Grayscale and Bitwise funds shed a combined $65m, while WisdomTree and Hashdex posted flat flows.<\/p>\n<p>Despite the setback, cumulative net inflows over two years have reached $54.31bn. ETFs now hold 6.34% of bitcoin\u2019s market capitalisation.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Options<\/h2>\n<p>On February 13, bitcoin and Ethereum options expired with combined notional nearing $2.9bn, according to Greeks.live.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">February 13 Options Expiration Data<br \/>38,000 BTC options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.71, maximum pain point at $74,000, and notional value of $2.5 billion.<br \/>215,000 ETH options expired with a Put-Call Ratio of 0.82, maximum pain point at $2,100, and notional value of $410\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/07TKfJxmMi\">pic.twitter.com\/07TKfJxmMi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GreeksLive\/status\/2022204581711950267?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 13, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Investors closed 38,000 BTC option positions worth $2.5bn. The put\/call ratio was 0.71. The \u201cmaximum pain\u201d point was $74,000.<\/p>\n<p>For Ethereum, 215,000 contracts expired with $410m notional. The put\/call ratio reached 0.82. The \u201cmaximum pain\u201d point was $2,100.<\/p>\n<p>The total expired notional equalled 9% of overall open interest.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sentiment and volatility<\/h2>\n<p>Analysts noted a decline in implied volatility: to 50% for bitcoin and 70% for Ethereum. The downtrend has slowed, but market confidence remains low. The \u201cmaximum pain\u201d level continues to fall rapidly.<\/p>\n<p>Put options still dominate trading. However, after yesterday\u2019s drop there were signs of dip\u2011buying, with call options appearing more often in large prints.<\/p>\n<p>Analysts believe the most aggressive phase of the decline has passed. Even so, the lack of fresh liquidity argues against a durable reversal or the start of a bull cycle.<\/p>\n<p>Standard Chartered <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/standard-chartered-predicts-bitcoin-drop-to-50000-before-rebound\">did not rule out<\/a> a fall in bitcoin to $50,000 followed by a rebound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>CryptoQuant doubts bitcoin\u2019s correction is over; on-chain metrics do not yet signal a structural bottom.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94250,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"CryptoQuant sees scant evidence of a Bitcoin bottom as on-chain signals remain weak.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[18,1205,1268],"class_list":["post-94249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptoquant","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"207","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"CryptoQuant sees scant evidence of a Bitcoin bottom as on-chain signals remain weak.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94249"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94249\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94251,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94249\/revisions\/94251"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94250"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}