{"id":94427,"date":"2026-02-18T19:31:01","date_gmt":"2026-02-18T16:31:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94427"},"modified":"2026-02-18T19:35:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-18T16:35:19","slug":"k33-analysts-detect-late-bear-phase-signals-in-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/k33-analysts-detect-late-bear-phase-signals-in-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"K33 Analysts Detect Late Bear Phase Signals in Bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"

The current state of the cryptocurrency market resembles the final stages of the 2022 bear phase, according to analysts at K33<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Vetle Lunde, the head of research at the firm, shared data from his proprietary market regime indicator. This tool analyses key metrics: derivatives yield, open interest, ETF<\/a> flows, and macroeconomic signals such as the US yield curve.<\/p>\n

The results showed a “striking similarity” to the situation in September and November 2022, when the market was near a global low.<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Source: K33.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Historically, such a regime has not indicated a quick reversal but rather a local minimum, followed by extended periods of weak price dynamics.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Since the beginning of January, Bitcoin has lost about 28%. Derivatives indicators point to defensive positioning. Funding rates<\/a> have remained negative for more than 11 consecutive days, and open interest in futures has fallen below 260,000 BTC.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This situation, combined with reduced leverage, decreases the short-term risk of derivative-induced “squeezes,” Lunde added.<\/p>\n

He expects digital gold to trade in the $60,000-$75,000 range for an extended period. The analyst described current entry levels as attractive but emphasized the need for patience. Historically, such regimes have yielded an average return of about 3% over 90 days.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at $68,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Institutional Behavior and Sentiment<\/h2>\n

Institutional traders on the CME<\/span> remain largely inactive. Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a record net outflow: investors have withdrawn 103,113 BTC from October peaks.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Reduction in Bitcoin ETP holdings from peak levels. Source: K33.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

However, despite the negative dynamics, about 93% of the peak volume remains in the funds. This indicates that major players have reduced positions but have not exited the asset entirely.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Fear and Greed Index<\/a> in the crypto market recently reached a historic low<\/a> of 5 points, but Lunde believes this indicator is not a reliable signal for strong rebounds.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"image\"
Source: Alternative.me<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Buying Bitcoin during “extreme fear” has yielded an average 90-day return of 2.4% compared to 95% when purchased during times of extreme greed.<\/p>\n

The room for further decline is limited, as it was during the late stage of the 2022 bear market. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of consolidation before prices begin to recover confidently, Lunde concluded.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Back in the day, the “Bear Flag” pattern on the daily chart of the leading cryptocurrency indicated<\/a> the possibility of its decline to $55,000.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The current state of the cryptocurrency market resembles the final stages of the 2022 bear phase, according to analysts at K33.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"K33 analysts see late bear phase signals in Bitcoin, resembling 2022's market.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1167,1145,1138],"class_list":["post-94427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-k33","tag-market-analysis","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"167","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"K33 analysts see late bear phase signals in Bitcoin, resembling 2022's market.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94427"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94427\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94428,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94427\/revisions\/94428"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}