{"id":94460,"date":"2026-02-19T14:42:03","date_gmt":"2026-02-19T11:42:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94460"},"modified":"2026-02-19T15:46:40","modified_gmt":"2026-02-19T12:46:40","slug":"short-term-sharpe-ratio-hints-at-a-bitcoin-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/short-term-sharpe-ratio-hints-at-a-bitcoin-rebound\/","title":{"rendered":"Short-term Sharpe ratio hints at a bitcoin rebound"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s short-term Sharpe ratio has fallen to a level that has historically preceded price bottoms, according to CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin\u2019s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hit a Level Historically Reserved For Generational Buying Zones<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MorenoDV_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MorenoDV_<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nxFBUgHxi9\">pic.twitter.com\/nxFBUgHxi9<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2024383832565178815?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 19, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The metric hit -38.38. Similar readings were seen ahead of market reversals in 2015, 2019 and late 2022.<\/p>\n<p>The Sharpe ratio measures return adjusted for risk. A deeply negative short-term reading signals not just weak profitability but maximum loss per unit of volatility \u2014 in other words, a sharp and deep decline. For many participants, that marks capitulation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe deepest drawdowns in the metric were not the start of prolonged bear markets. They marked the exhaustion of selling pressure. The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by a violent recovery to new highs,\u201d the expert explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>In probabilistic terms, he said, the risk-reward for medium- and long-term positions looks \u201casymmetrically favourable\u201d. The risk of further downside is already largely embedded in momentum indicators.<\/p>\n<p>The main threat, according to Moreno de Vicente, is a macro liquidity shock that could prolong the bottoming process.<\/p>\n<p>At press time bitcoin was trading around $66,800, down 2% over the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"639\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-05f33d4d31b6489e-6717502647088246-1024x639.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-275416\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-05f33d4d31b6489e-6717502647088246-1024x639.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-05f33d4d31b6489e-6717502647088246-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-05f33d4d31b6489e-6717502647088246-768x479.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-05f33d4d31b6489e-6717502647088246-1536x958.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-05f33d4d31b6489e-6717502647088246.png 1600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Another bottoming signal<\/h2>\n<p>Stress among bitcoin\u2019s short-term holders (STH) has dropped to levels seen at the 2018 bear-market bottom.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bollinger-bands-using-the-indicator-in-crypto-trading\">Bollinger Bands<\/a> for STH point to the most oversold conditions in eight years. The metric measures the gap between the current price and the average purchase price of those holding coins for fewer than 155 days.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin STH Bollingers most oversold in 8 years <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tHyBv3V1Ge\">pic.twitter.com\/tHyBv3V1Ge<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Quinten | 048.eth (@QuintenFrancois) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/QuintenFrancois\/status\/2023642245824385150?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 17, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A break below the lower band means bitcoin has fallen well beneath recent buyers\u2019 entry prices, beyond typical historical volatility.<\/p>\n<p>Historically, this signal has coincided with major bottoms. In late 2018, a similar oversold reading preceded a 150% rise over 12 months and 1,900% over three years.<\/p>\n<p>A similar signal appeared before the November 2022 lows. What followed was a 700% rally \u2014 to a new all-time high around $126,000.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, Matrixport analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/matrixport-observes-waning-bitcoin-selling-pressure\">pointed<\/a> to the formation of a \u201cdurable bottom\u201d and the exhaustion of selling pressure. However, CryptoQuant specialists <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-sees-scant-evidence-of-a-bitcoin-bottom\">questioned<\/a> whether the correction in the leading cryptocurrency had ended.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A return to accumulation<\/h2>\n<p>Large investors have shifted tack: after six months of distribution, they have resumed accumulation, noted CryptoQuant analyst Burak Kesmeci.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"tr\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin&#8217;de uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar yeniden al\u0131ma m\u0131 ge\u00e7iyor?<\/p>\n<p>Son 6 aya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ortada net bir sat\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131 vard\u0131. Uzun vadeli yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar (LTH), fiyat y\u00fcksekteyken ellerindekini yava\u015f yava\u015f bo\u015faltt\u0131. Ama 12 Ocak 2026&#8217;dan itibaren bir \u015fey de\u011fi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<p>Yeniden al\u0131m geldi,\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ORq6bJb9b5\">pic.twitter.com\/ORq6bJb9b5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Burak Kesmeci (@burak_kesmeci) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/burak_kesmeci\/status\/2024190690549231916?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 18, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He said the turn came after January 12, when bitcoin fell into the $62,000\u2013$68,000 range. Year-to-date data confirm this: accumulation by long-term holders (LTH) has risen to 115,000 BTC, and selling pressure has nearly vanished.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe most patient investors in the market are back in the game,\u201d the expert noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>However, Kesmeci doubts that this pace of buying is sufficient to reverse the trend. Despite LTH returning, there is no pronounced momentum yet.<\/p>\n<p>He believes the decisive factor will be buying dynamics in the coming weeks.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cHistorically, this picture often precedes the calm before a big move. At a minimum, one can say this: selling pressure from long-term holders has ended. At least for now,\u201d he concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>K33 analysts have <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/k33-analysts-detect-late-bear-phase-signals-in-bitcoin\">noted<\/a> signals of a late bear phase in bitcoin.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin\u2019s short-term Sharpe ratio has fallen to a level that has historically preceded price bottoms.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94461,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin\u2019s short-term Sharpe ratio hits extremes that have preceded market bottoms.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1205,1268],"class_list":["post-94460","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptoquant","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"211","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin\u2019s short-term Sharpe ratio hits extremes that have preceded market bottoms.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94460","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94460"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94460\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94462,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94460\/revisions\/94462"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94460"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94460"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94460"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}