{"id":94545,"date":"2026-02-22T15:06:17","date_gmt":"2026-02-22T12:06:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94545"},"modified":"2026-02-22T15:10:45","modified_gmt":"2026-02-22T12:10:45","slug":"bitcoin-closes-half-of-the-last-24-months-with-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoin-closes-half-of-the-last-24-months-with-gains\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Closes Half of the Last 24 Months with Gains"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin ended positively in 50% of the last 24 months. Based on these data, economist Timothy Peterson estimated the probability of Bitcoin rising in 10 months at 88%.<\/p>\n

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Source: X<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

According to his calculations, during the next rally, the leading cryptocurrency will increase by 82% from current levels \u2014 approximately to $122,000.<\/p>\n

According to CoinGlass<\/a>, in 2025, digital gold showed positive dynamics in January, April, May, June, July, and September.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Source: CoinGlass.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Peterson uses this metric as an “unofficial indicator” to track Bitcoin cycles. It helps to identify trend change points.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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Source: X<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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“The indicator measures frequency, not the degree of price change. Therefore, the asset can remain at the same level for several months, and the indicator will still decrease,” explained the expert.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Local Picture<\/h2>\n

According to analyst DurdenBTC, the share of Bitcoin supply in profit is at the zero percentile.<\/p>\n

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Source: X<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
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“This is lower than in December 2018 at $3,359 (43% of supply in profit). Lower than during the COVID-19 pandemic at $4,959 (48%). Lower than after the FTX collapse at $15,778 (49%). [..] This is what happens when the entire cycle buys Bitcoin at the peak,” he added.\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

MN Trading founder Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe pointed to a “fascinating chart” \u2014 non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutional investors, have reduced their net short positions in Bitcoin to extremely low levels.\u00a0<\/p>\n

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A fascinating chart. <\/p>\n

Non-commercial traders, primarily hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in #Bitcoin<\/a> in the entire dataset. <\/p>\n

The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the “net short position” is at historic\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/hX3qAd8lw9<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) February 22, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n