{"id":94563,"date":"2026-02-23T11:54:27","date_gmt":"2026-02-23T08:54:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94563"},"modified":"2026-02-23T11:56:41","modified_gmt":"2026-02-23T08:56:41","slug":"smart-money-backs-a-bitcoin-rebound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/smart-money-backs-a-bitcoin-rebound\/","title":{"rendered":"Smart money backs a bitcoin rebound"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Non-commercial traders have sharply cut their bitcoin shorts. They now hold a record net long in the dataset, noted MN Trading founder Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe, citing analyst Tom McClellan.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A fascinating chart. <\/p>\n<p>Non-commercial traders, primarilly hedge funds and institutions, are currently at one of their most extreme net long positions in <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> in the entire dataset. <\/p>\n<p>The red line has plunged deeply negative, meaning the &#8220;net short position&#8221; is at historic\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hX3qAd8lw9\">pic.twitter.com\/hX3qAd8lw9<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/2025463817434501454?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 22, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Over the past month, large speculators and hedge funds flipped their net position from +1,000 to -1,600 contracts. That implies the smart money on <span data-descr=\"Chicago Mercantile Exchange\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CME<\/span> has shifted en masse to betting on a rebound\u2014and did so with \u201csome haste,\u201d McClellan said.<\/p>\n<p>Van de Poppe pointed to two similar episodes in the past:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>in 2023, a sharp reduction in net selling preceded a 70% rise in bitcoin;<\/li>\n<li>in 2025, a similar setup led to a 190% rally.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bottom in sight<\/h2>\n<p>The MN Trading founder argues the bear market has lasted 14 months\u2014exactly as long as the corrections in 2013\u201315, 2017\u201319 and 2021\u201322.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">The best chart in the ecosystem.<\/p>\n<p>The valuation of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> vs. Gold. <\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s not about the valuation of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> vs. the Dollar, we all know that this is going to up over the years.<\/p>\n<p>It&#8217;s about <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> vs. Gold given that these two are hard assets.<\/p>\n<p>The current valuation is the lowest\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Pqxeo9cSz5\">pic.twitter.com\/Pqxeo9cSz5<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/2025155789087014989?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 21, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A chart of bitcoin priced in gold underscores the point. In van de Poppe\u2019s view, this pair\u2014not the dollar rate\u2014captures the real state of play, since both are \u201chard assets\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin peaked against the metal in December 2024, then entered a prolonged decline.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cThe October dollar <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-surge-to-126000-revitalises-retail-investors\"><em>record for bitcoin ($126,000)<\/em><\/a><em> may not have been a sign of its strength at all. More likely, it was a consequence of the gold and silver rally, which simply dragged up bitcoin\u2019s dollar price. In real terms (in gold), bitcoin has been falling for more than a year,\u201d the expert noted. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He says the market is approaching a bottom. The weekly <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">RSI<\/a> of the two-asset ratio has dropped to an all-time low\u2014levels seen only at the end of prior cycles.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWe are likely not at the beginning but in the final chapter of the bear market. Every time the bitcoin\/gold pair\u2019s RSI hit such extreme lows, it was followed by years of uptrend,\u201d van de Poppe explained. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Additional signals<\/h2>\n<p>According to CryptoQuant analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, the 60-day change in <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-tether-usdt\">USDT<\/a> market cap has fallen below -$3bn for the first time since late 2022. Back then, bitcoin was carving out a cyclical bottom around $16,000 amid peak fear and forced liquidations.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">USDT Just Triggered a Signal Seen Only at the 2022 Bottom<\/p>\n<p>\u201cExtreme liquidity stress has historically marked opportunity, but only once selling exhaustion is confirmed.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MorenoDV_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@MorenoDV_<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/xxGJgQziEF\">pic.twitter.com\/xxGJgQziEF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2025818830115672412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The second episode is unfolding now, with the first cryptocurrency trading in a $65,000\u2013$70,000 range.<\/p>\n<p>On the daily timeframe, there have been three instances of USDT outflows of more than $1bn in a day. Each coincided with local\/global lows or sharp spikes in bitcoin\u2019s volatility.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cUSDT redemptions on this scale reflect the exit of institutional or large holders from the ecosystem. Historically, this occurs at exhaustion, not at the start of a protracted downtrend,\u201d Moreno de Vicente stressed. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Context matters, however: in previous cycles, once forced deleveraging ended and USDT flows stabilised, bitcoin shifted to sustained gains as liquidity conditions normalised.<\/p>\n<p>The risk\/reward, he says, depends directly on stablecoin dynamics:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>if USDT contraction persists, price pressure may remain;<\/li>\n<li>if outflows stop or turn to inflows, the market should quickly return to a growth phase.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Lookonchain analysts also flagged the return to the market of noted bitcoin supporter Erik Voorhees.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Erik Voorhees(<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ErikVoorhees?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@ErikVoorhees<\/a>), an early <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> supporter and founder of ShapeShift, is buying back <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETH<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>One year ago, he sold 11,616 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETH<\/a>($33.94M) at $2,922.<\/p>\n<p>Recently, he spent 20.38M <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24USDC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$USDC<\/a> to buy back 9,911 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24ETH&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$ETH<\/a> at $2,057.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/pYQfA1ywec\">https:\/\/t.co\/pYQfA1ywec<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ft9dUkovHS\">pic.twitter.com\/ft9dUkovHS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Lookonchain (@lookonchain) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/lookonchain\/status\/2025844457544008116?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 23, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A year ago he sold 11,616 ETH for $33.94m at $2,922. On 22 February, Voorhees spent $20.38m in <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-usdc-stablecoin\">USDC<\/a> to buy back 9,911 ETH at $2,057.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, the Sharpe ratio <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/short-term-sharpe-ratio-hints-at-a-bitcoin-rebound\">hinted<\/a> at an imminent bitcoin recovery. The metric reached -38.38\u2014levels previously seen before market reversals in 2015, 2019 and late 2022.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Non-commercial traders have slashed bitcoin shorts and now hold a record net long, says MN Trading\u2019s Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94564,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Hedge funds swing to record net long as bitcoin nears a bottom.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1205,1156,1145],"class_list":["post-94563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptoquant","tag-institutional-investors-and-whales","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"126","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Hedge funds swing to record net long as bitcoin nears a bottom.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94563","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94563"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94563\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94565,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94563\/revisions\/94565"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94564"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94563"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94563"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94563"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}