{"id":94816,"date":"2026-03-01T13:57:47","date_gmt":"2026-03-01T10:57:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94816"},"modified":"2026-03-01T14:01:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-01T11:01:40","slug":"kalshi-users-report-losses-after-ethics-led-cancellation-of-khamenei-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/kalshi-users-report-losses-after-ethics-led-cancellation-of-khamenei-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Kalshi users report losses after ethics-led cancellation of Khamenei market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction platform Kalshi canceled a market related to Iran\u2019s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. CEO Tarek Mansour pledged to reimburse users, but many complained of losses.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-598bea47cb8e08e7-7578292747964628.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-275989\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Notice of a trading halt on a Kalshi market. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/kalshi.com\/markets\/kxleadersout\/world-leaders-out-this-year\/kxleadersout-27jan01\">Kalshi<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The market concerned the \u201cremoval\u201d of politicians, but trading was frozen after reports of Khamenei\u2019s death appeared. According to the platform, wagering in this category had been available since November 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Mansour posted on X to explain the platform\u2019s stance and the rules for rolling back trades.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">On Khamenei: <\/p>\n<p>We don\u2019t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death. That is what we did here. <\/p>\n<p>I know some of you disagree and prefer that we list these\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mansourtarek_\/status\/2027924240926638323?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cWe do not list markets directly tied to death. Where there are markets whose potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from such outcomes. That is what we did here,\u201d the Kalshi CEO said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>He said the market tied to the Iranian leader\u2019s departure was \u201cimportant\u201d economically and politically, and that leaving office might not involve violent means. As an alternative example he cited Venezuela\u2019s president, Nicol\u00e1s Maduro.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cIn such cases we clearly indicate this in the rules and on the market page, but today was a good lesson showing we can do more to improve the user experience and add new ways to display the rules. We are determined to improve,\u201d Mansour added.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Under the compensation terms, the platform pledged to refund all fees, and positions opened before reports of Khamenei\u2019s death would be rolled back at the last traded price.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cNo user will lose a dollar on this market,\u201d the Kalshi chief executive assured.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What went wrong<\/h2>\n<p>Despite Mansour\u2019s statements, many users complained about losses on positions or incomplete compensation. A community note appeared under the CEO\u2019s post on X.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-bd7892f0add43d7b-7578292754021947.webp\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-275990\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/mansourtarek_\/status\/2027943167681564844\">X<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cThis is false. Many users reported losing money on winning trades,\u201d the note said.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>A user going by Sameer posted a screenshot showing a winning position placed at a 6% probability being closed with $245 in compensation against an initial $1,034 outlay. Had the outcome been counted, the payout would have exceeded $12,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Deceiving your customers, then calling them \u201cusers\u201d , and next lying on twitter is going to be fun in court <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mansourtarek_?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@mansourtarek_<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Kalshi?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Kalshi<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CFTC?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CFTC<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SECGov?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@SECGov<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RealBenGeller?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@RealBenGeller<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/FBeDlSxv2V\">pic.twitter.com\/FBeDlSxv2V<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Sameer (@sameeriously) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sameeriously\/status\/2027950346979377496?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cDeceiving your customers, calling them \u2018users\u2019, and then lying on social networks \u2014 it will be fun in court,\u201d the user wrote.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Other Kalshi users reported similar situations, differing only in loss amounts and bet details.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Liar. You\u2019re getting sued. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/4VO5pEB0Bd\">pic.twitter.com\/4VO5pEB0Bd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Zander Pyle (@Alexander_333_) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Alexander_333_\/status\/2027949958767513975?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Representatives of the prediction platform have not yet published additional comments on the compensation issues.<\/p>\n<p>One trader <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/HansB240\/status\/2027932275132801154\">appealed<\/a> to the <span data-descr=\"U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission\" class=\"old_tooltip\">SEC<\/span> and the <span data-descr=\"U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CFTC<\/span> to investigate, saying that when the market was listed, the cancellation terms were not disclosed anywhere.<\/p>\n<p>Countering the ethical rationale for closure, a user nicknamed jellyman <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/jellymanguy\/status\/2027935504943939927\">recalled<\/a> a market on whether the 39th U.S. president, Jimmy Carter, would attend Donald Trump\u2019s inauguration.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201c[You kept the market] even after his passing. You knew that people were betting on the death of a 99-year-old elderly man [\u2026]. You are fine with death, but not when it doesn\u2019t make you money,\u201d he wrote to Kalshi\u2019s management.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Record volumes<\/h2>\n<p>According to defioasis, on the day of the strike on Iran, February 28th, Polymarket\u2019s daily trading volume hit an all-time high of $478 million.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"zh\" dir=\"ltr\">\u5728\u7f8e\u4ee5\u5bf9\u4f0a\u6717\u5b9e\u65bd\u8054\u5408\u6253\u51fb\u5f53\u5929\uff0cPolymarket \u5355\u65e5\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u521b\u4e0b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u540d\u4e49\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u8fbe\u5230 4.78 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143<\/p>\n<p>\u5176\u4e2d\u653f\u6cbb\u677f\u5757\u8fbe 2.2 \u4ebf\u7f8e\u5143\uff0c\u540c\u6837\u521b\u4e0b\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5360\u6bd4\u5f53\u65e5 Polymarket \u540d\u4e49\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u7684 46.2%<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0cPolymarket Builders \u5728\u8fd9\u5386\u53f2\u8282\u70b9\u4e0a\u540c\u6837\u521b\u4e0b\u4e86\u5355\u65e5\u4ea4\u6613\u91cf\u65b0\u9ad8 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KnKmWO3vAn\">pic.twitter.com\/KnKmWO3vAn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 defioasis.eth (@defioasis) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/defioasis\/status\/2027950143539187987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 1, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The politics category accounted for $220 million (46.2% of the total), also a record. Peak activity was likewise recorded in the Polymarket Builders automation ecosystem.<\/p>\n<p>In parallel, Bubblemaps analysts identified six possible insider wallets that bet on a strike on Iran, earning more than $1.2 million in total.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">JUST IN: \ud83c\uddee\ud83c\uddf7 \ud83c\uddfa\ud83c\uddf8 Six suspected insiders made $1.2M betting on a US strike on Iran<\/p>\n<p>Most of these wallets:<\/p>\n<p>\u2022 were funded in the last 24h<br \/>\u2022 specifically bet for February 28<br \/>\u2022 bought &#8220;yes&#8221; hours before the strike <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/n3G6OIEOXt\">pic.twitter.com\/n3G6OIEOXt<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bubblemaps (@bubblemaps) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bubblemaps\/status\/2027718004193300791?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 28, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>In February, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/vitalik-buterin-warns-of-prediction-markets-turning-into-casinos\">expressed<\/a> concern about the current state of prediction markets. In his view, growing reliance on uninformed speculators threatens the sector\u2019s viability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Prediction platform Kalshi canceled a market on Ali Khamenei. The CEO promised refunds, but many users said they lost money.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94817,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Kalshi scrapped a Khamenei market on ethical grounds; CEO vowed refunds, users say they lost money.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[2364,1595],"class_list":["post-94816","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-kalshi","tag-prediction-markets"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"187","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Kalshi scrapped a Khamenei market on ethical grounds; CEO vowed refunds, users say they lost money.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94816","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94816"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94816\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94818,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94816\/revisions\/94818"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94817"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94816"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94816"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94816"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}