{"id":94920,"date":"2026-03-04T17:46:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T14:46:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=94920"},"modified":"2026-03-04T17:50:35","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T14:50:35","slug":"the-worst-is-over-k33-highlights-end-of-bitcoin-sell-off","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/the-worst-is-over-k33-highlights-end-of-bitcoin-sell-off\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;The Worst is Over&#8221;: K33 Highlights End of Bitcoin Sell-off"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The leading cryptocurrency has entered its third deepest oversold zone in history, according to <a href=\"https:\/\/k33.com\/research\/articles\/the-worst-is-behind-us-now-we-wait\">K33&#8217;s head of research, Vetle Lunde<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>After five months of decline\u2014one of the longest losing streaks for the asset\u2014Bitcoin&#8217;s weekly <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">RSI<\/a> plummeted to 26.84. Such levels have been observed only a few times historically.<\/p>\n<p>According to the analytics firm, recent pressure on prices has been exerted by long-term holders and institutional investors. The fourth quarter saw the following deviations:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The supply of coins aged over six months sharply decreased;<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETFs<\/a> lost nearly 100,000 BTC;<\/li>\n<li>Open interest in futures on the <span data-descr=\"Chicago Mercantile Exchange\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CME<\/span> fell to two-year lows.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>However, the outflow has now <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/us-spot-bitcoin-etfs-attract-458m-in-a-day\">begun to slow<\/a>, Lunde noted.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bearish Sentiment<\/h2>\n<p>K33 analysts identified derivatives markets as one of the most telling indicators of current sentiment. The average 30-day <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/the-funding-rate-how-it-helps-anticipate-price-reversals-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum\">funding rate<\/a> in perpetual Bitcoin futures recently turned negative\u2014the tenth such occurrence since 2018.<\/p>\n<p>Negative rates indicate that market participants are actively reducing long positions or opening shorts. As a result, perpetual futures begin trading at a discount to the spot price.<\/p>\n<p>A similar situation has developed in the options sector. Traders are actively purchasing downside protection and are willing to pay a significant premium for bearish bets, Lunde noted.<\/p>\n<p>However, previous episodes of such negative funding often resulted in Bitcoin&#8217;s growth, especially over longer periods.<\/p>\n<p>Historical data shows that following such phases, the average 30-day return was about 13% (56% success rate), 90-day returns were 62% with a 78% success rate, and six-month returns averaged 101% with the same success rate.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">&#8220;The Worst is Over&#8221;<\/h2>\n<p>Despite the defensive stance in the derivatives market, Bitcoin has shown relative resilience amid the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-assess-impact-of-iran-conflict-on-bitcoin-price\">escalation of conflict in the Middle East<\/a>. Following strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and retaliatory actions, oil and gas prices soared, and stock markets fell. Digital gold <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-breaches-71000-as-spot-etf-investors-nurse-losses\">exhibited &#8220;modest&#8221; growth<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Lunde explained the dynamics as a result of significant risk reduction in previous months. Institutions on the CME reduced exposure by about a third, and ETF investors withdrew around 90,000 BTC over the past five months.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, pressure from long-term holders is easing. The volume of coins older than six months is beginning to rise, the analyst emphasized.<\/p>\n<p>Bitcoin is also consolidating around the 200-week moving average\u2014a level historically coinciding with market lows. At the time of writing, the asset is trading around $71,600. Over the past day, its price has jumped by 6.7%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"641\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-878334692b157a78-7851772855339684-1024x641.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-276203\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-878334692b157a78-7851772855339684-1024x641.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-878334692b157a78-7851772855339684-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-878334692b157a78-7851772855339684-768x480.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-878334692b157a78-7851772855339684-1536x961.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-878334692b157a78-7851772855339684.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The worst is over. Now we wait. We see no reason to sell Bitcoin at current levels,&#8221; Lunde concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Back in early March, VanEck&#8217;s head Jan van Eck <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/vaneck-ceo-discusses-bitcoins-price-floor-formation\">stated<\/a> that the price of digital gold had approached a local bottom. According to him, prices continue to be driven by the four-year <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halving<\/a> cycle.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The leading cryptocurrency has entered its third deepest oversold zone in history, according to K33&#8217;s head of research, Vetle Lunde.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":94921,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin enters third deepest oversold zone in history, says K33's Vetle Lunde.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1167,1138],"class_list":["post-94920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-k33","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"139","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin enters third deepest oversold zone in history, says K33's Vetle Lunde.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=94920"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":94922,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/94920\/revisions\/94922"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/94921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=94920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=94920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=94920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}