{"id":95055,"date":"2026-03-09T14:08:42","date_gmt":"2026-03-09T11:08:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=95055"},"modified":"2026-03-09T14:13:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-09T11:13:07","slug":"cryptoquant-says-surging-oil-is-a-headwind-for-bitcoin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/cryptoquant-says-surging-oil-is-a-headwind-for-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"CryptoQuant says surging oil is a headwind for bitcoin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Amid war in the Middle East, oil has jumped more than 60% since the start of the year. The geopolitical shock could stoke inflation and create a negative backdrop for cryptocurrencies, warned CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Oil Prices Surge Amid Hormuz Tensions: Implications for BTC and Markets<\/p>\n<p>\u201cHistorically, periods when oil prices regain strength often coincide with BTC end-of-cycle phases.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Darkfost_Coc<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DO42U9CWFk\">pic.twitter.com\/DO42U9CWFk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2030908236476326299?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The rally in crude has been driven by disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil exports and nearly 35% of all seaborne shipments pass. Any incident that blocks or impedes transit is immediately reflected in prices.<\/p>\n<p>According to the analyst, the move will inevitably feed into inflation and hit financial markets sensitive to supply shocks. For volatile, risk-on assets such as bitcoin, that environment is particularly unfavourable.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cHistorically, periods of strengthening oil prices often coincide with the concluding phases of the first cryptocurrency\u2019s cycles,\u201d he noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The oil shock<\/h2>\n<p>A rise in oil above $115 per barrel triggered panic across global markets. Asian indices opened lower, as the region depends on energy imports from the Middle East.<\/p>\n<p>Japan\u2019s Nikkei 225 fell by more than <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.investing.com\/indices\/japan-ni225\">6%<\/a>, while South Korea\u2019s Kospi lost about <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.investing.com\/indices\/kospi\">8%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Against this backdrop, trading activity on Japan\u2019s Bitflyer surged, outpacing global venues. The metric <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/exchanges\/bitflyer\">jumped 200%<\/a>\u2014versus <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/exchanges\/coinbase-exchange\">119%<\/a> on Coinbase and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/exchanges\/binance\">82%<\/a> on Binance.<\/p>\n<p>Activity on South Korean exchanges was more restrained: volumes on Upbit rose by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/exchanges\/upbit\">32%<\/a>, and on Bithumb by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/exchanges\/bithumb\">52%<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As traditional markets sold off, Japanese traders were among the quickest to rotate into bitcoin. During Asian hours the cryptocurrency gained 2.05% against the yen (versus +1.86% against the dollar and +1.64% against the won).<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, digital gold trades around $67,800. On March 9 the price briefly <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoins-brief-dip-to-65700-amidst-macroeconomic-factors\">dipped<\/a> to $65,700.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"640\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f2e477e467c1a61-8270642243680836-1024x640.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-276452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f2e477e467c1a61-8270642243680836-1024x640.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f2e477e467c1a61-8270642243680836-300x187.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f2e477e467c1a61-8270642243680836-768x480.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f2e477e467c1a61-8270642243680836-1536x959.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-4f2e477e467c1a61-8270642243680836.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Unexpected resilience<\/h2>\n<p>Analysts at QCP described bitcoin\u2019s action as \u201cunexpectedly resilient\u201d despite broad weakness across risk assets and global equities. As tensions around Iran escalated, the latter turned defensive.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">QCP Market Colour, 09 March 2026<br \/>Missiles Over Markets<\/p>\n<p>1\/ Iran tensions failed to cool over the weekend, pushing oil above $115 on fears of sustained disruption through the Strait of Hormuz and wider Middle East instability. Global equities have turned defensive.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 QCP (@QCPgroup) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/QCPgroup\/status\/2030913534947954975?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Even so, some crypto investors continue to hedge downside\u2014mainly via short-dated contracts around $61,000\u2013$64,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cHowever, options flows point to a more nuanced picture. The purchase of a 500x BTC <span data-descr=\"an options strategy that involves simultaneously buying (or selling) call and put options on the same underlying asset with the same strike price and expiration date\" class=\"old_tooltip\">straddle<\/span> expiring on April 24 at $72,000 suggests expectations of high volatility rather than an inevitable crash,\u201d the experts added.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>They also noted the structure of March open interest, with the largest concentration in call options at $75,000 and $125,000 strikes. Hitting those levels is unlikely, QCP said, but the persistence of such positions points to steady demand.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cBitcoin is still far from \u2018digital gold\u2019 status, but its role as a \u2018digital emergency exit\u2019 is becoming more noticeable. Especially in the Gulf countries, where currency volatility and political instability are a familiar backdrop,\u201d the analysts concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hyperliquid<\/h2>\n<p>The crude-linked perpetual on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/the-price-of-popularity-and-a-lesson-for-all-hyperliquid\">Hyperliquid<\/a> under the ticker CL-USDC hit a local high near $117 (+20% on the day) before pulling back to $101. Daily trading volume topped $1bn.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"656\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-25b4435709fc2f6b-8270722088521739-1024x656.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-276453\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-25b4435709fc2f6b-8270722088521739-1024x656.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-25b4435709fc2f6b-8270722088521739-300x192.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-25b4435709fc2f6b-8270722088521739-768x492.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-25b4435709fc2f6b-8270722088521739-1536x984.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-25b4435709fc2f6b-8270722088521739.png 1814w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of CL\/USDC on Hyperliquid. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/app.hyperliquid.xyz\/trade\/xyz:CL\">Hyperliquid<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to Pine Analytics, on March 8 the combined daily volume of oil derivatives on Hyperliquid in the HIP-3 segment reached $720m. That was the highest on record for a weekend session.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Today is the highest volume day in terms of HIP-3 volume on a weekend, and this is driven by <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tradexyz?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@tradexyz<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Between November 20th and January 12th, tradexyz volume was relatively flat at about $300M\u2013$500M on weekdays and $50M\u2013$100M on weekends. On January 12th, silver started its\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/hU5ZYWqygS\">pic.twitter.com\/hU5ZYWqygS<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Pine Analytics (@PineAnalytics) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PineAnalytics\/status\/2030842961693495667?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 9, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The Middle East crisis sparked a surge in activity on the platform. The United States and Israel started a war against Iran over the weekend, when traditional exchanges were closed. As a result, traders <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/traders-shift-to-hyperliquid-for-oil-and-gold-trading-amid-geopolitical-tensions\">shifted en masse<\/a> to Hyperliquid, which offers 24\/7 trading.<\/p>\n<p>In January the platform experienced a similar burst of interest during silver\u2019s rally, when the metal jumped from $85 to $114 in two weeks. At the peak, futures volumes on the precious metal reached $4.67bn on weekdays and $460m on weekends, the experts noted.<\/p>\n<p>They added that Hyperliquid soaks up demand for traditional assets when usual instruments are unavailable. If the trend persists, the native HYPE token will be well positioned and continue to strengthen relative to other cryptocurrencies, Pine Analytics said.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past day the coin gained 1.8%, and 10.3% over two weeks (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/hyperliquid\">CoinGecko<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>Earlier in March, analysts at London Crypto Club <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analysts-assess-impact-of-iran-conflict-on-bitcoin-price\">assessed<\/a> the impact of the war in Iran on bitcoin\u2019s dynamics, outlining two scenarios.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Surging oil could stoke inflation and create a hostile backdrop for crypto, warned CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95056,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"CryptoQuant warns surging oil is a headwind for bitcoin.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1823,1138,1211],"class_list":["post-95055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-hyperliquid","tag-opinions","tag-stock-market"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"159","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"CryptoQuant warns surging oil is a headwind for bitcoin.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95055","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95055"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95055\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95057,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95055\/revisions\/95057"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95056"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95055"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95055"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95055"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}