{"id":95119,"date":"2026-03-11T12:05:19","date_gmt":"2026-03-11T09:05:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=95119"},"modified":"2026-03-11T12:11:43","modified_gmt":"2026-03-11T09:11:43","slug":"analysts-flag-a-bearish-turn-for-bitcoin-before-a-sprint-to-1m","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-flag-a-bearish-turn-for-bitcoin-before-a-sprint-to-1m\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts flag a bearish turn for bitcoin before a sprint to $1m"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitwise\u2019s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, has laid out why he thinks bitcoin could reach $1m. In a <a href=\"https:\/\/experts.bitwiseinvestments.com\/cio-memos\/how-bitcoin-gets-to-1-million\">note<\/a> he frames the asset as a direct competitor to gold in the global store-of-value market.<\/p>\n<p>He puts the segment at roughly $38trn today, of which $36trn is gold and $1.4trn is bitcoin. The latter\u2019s share is under 4%. For the coin to change hands at $1m, bitcoin would need to command more than half the market.<\/p>\n<p>Hougan argues investors underestimate the potential expansion of the store-of-value pool itself. In 2004 gold\u2019s market capitalisation was $2.5trn; over 20 years it swelled to $40trn, helped by rising developed-market debt, geopolitical instability and loose monetary policy. The average annual growth rate was 13%.<\/p>\n<p>If that pace persists, the store-of-value market would top $121trn in ten years. At that scale bitcoin would need to capture only 17% of the segment to reach $1m.<\/p>\n<p>His forecast rests on several structural shifts now under way:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>US spot bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETF<\/a>s have become the fastest-growing funds on record;<\/li>\n<li>institutions have begun allocating to the asset in size;<\/li>\n<li>the cryptocurrency\u2019s long-term volatility is falling.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Diminishing price swings are prompting professional investors to rethink strategies. Where bitcoin once merited about 1% of a portfolio, allocations now stretch to as much as 5%.<\/p>\n<p>He concedes the risks: growth could slow and bitcoin could cede ground to alternative assets. Even so, his base case is for substantial appreciation as fiat money continues to lose purchasing power\u2014making $1m a potentially conservative target.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An alternative view: a slide below $60,000<\/h2>\n<p>Not everyone shares the short-term optimism. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes said that if he had only $1 to invest today, he would not buy bitcoin.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Where is Bitcoin headed next?<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoHayes?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@CryptoHayes<\/a> latest takes might surprise you. <\/p>\n<p>Full show streaming now \ud83c\udfa7 <\/p>\n<p>TIMESTAMPS:<br \/>00:00 Arthur Hayes\u2019 origin story<br \/>8:33 Bullish or bearish on Bitcoin<br \/>9:59 Institutions taking over Bitcoin?<br \/>11:52 Bitcoin price manipulation<br \/>13:26 What&#8217;s holding\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/Q5w86NdMW8\">pic.twitter.com\/Q5w86NdMW8<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Natalie Brunell \u26a1\ufe0f (@natbrunell) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/natbrunell\/status\/2031478818091762152?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 10, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He is waiting to enter the market until the <span data-descr=\"US Federal Reserve System\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Fed<\/span> eases policy and the \u201cprinting press\u201d resumes.<\/p>\n<p>In the near term Hayes expects heavy selling of equities and crypto amid geopolitical tension. By his estimate, bitcoin could fall below $60,000.<\/p>\n<p>His medium-term view remains positive. He is confident that in the coming years the price of digital gold will exceed $100,000.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The start of a bear market<\/h2>\n<p>The share of bitcoin supply in loss has reached 40\u201345%. According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, that points to market weakness and the early phase of a bear trend.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Supply in Loss Rising Again<\/p>\n<p>\u201cSupply in Loss is increasing, indicating rising market stress. But if historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Woo_Minkyu?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Woo_Minkyu<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/5tEeQHvm4Z\">pic.twitter.com\/5tEeQHvm4Z<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2031625959204360279?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Historically, such readings have accompanied deep corrections or cycle shifts\u2014as seen in 2015, 2019 and 2022. A rising share means more investors are holding coins at a loss, increasing overall stress.<\/p>\n<p>Even so, he emphasised that a global bottom has not yet formed. In past cycles it appeared only after the share in loss exceeded 50%.<\/p>\n<p>To Woominkyu, today\u2019s levels signal the onset of a prolonged decline, not an imminent trend reversal.<\/p>\n<p>Analyst Ted Pillows agrees. He points to bitcoin\u2019s monthly relative strength index (<a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-the-rsi-is-for-and-whether-it-suits-cryptocurrencies\">RSI<\/a>), which also suggests the cycle bottom has not yet been reached.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC<\/a> monthly RSI is indicating that a cycle bottom hasn&#8217;t happened.<\/p>\n<p>IMO, when monthly RSI drops below 40, a cycle bottom will occur. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QiBeSaz6zn\">pic.twitter.com\/QiBeSaz6zn<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Ted (@TedPillows) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TedPillows\/status\/2031393060890759613?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 10, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He forecasts that a definitive market low will form only when the RSI falls below 40.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Funding rates slide<\/h2>\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s 30-day funding-rate percentile has fallen to 6%. That is the lowest reading since early 2023, said analyst RugaResearch.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Funding Rate 30D Percentile at 6%. The Lowest Reading Since Early 2023.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe 30-day percentile ranks today&#8217;s funding rate against the last 30 days of readings. At 6%, almost every single day in the past month had higher funding than right now.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RugaResearch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@RugaResearch<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/tYQWEXj8mc\">pic.twitter.com\/tYQWEXj8mc<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2031272432158519477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 10, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>On only 6% of days in the past month was funding below today\u2019s levels. In derivatives markets, sellers dominate: shorts have been paying longs to hold positions for almost two weeks straight.<\/p>\n<p>Sentiment flipped after a record January, when the average daily rate was +0.005% and the percentile mostly sat above 80%. In February the trend reversed: the average fell to \u22120.003%, and in March to \u22120.004%.<\/p>\n<p>Over the past 30 days the rate was negative on 25 days. The most extreme value was \u22120.021% on February 6th, with similar dips below \u22120.01% on February 25th and 28th and March 4th. Short pressure is not easing; it is mounting.<\/p>\n<p>RugaResearch stresses that a drop to 6% points to a sharp imbalance. The metric can remain \u201cdepressed\u201d for weeks, but a stance this strong and one-sided rarely produces a gentle slide in prices. It is more often followed by a burst of volatility.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cWhen everyone is sure of the direction, the market usually reminds you it does not take orders,\u201d the analyst concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On March 9th, Bitfinex analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitfinex-analysts-identify-oil-prices-as-key-driver-for-bitcoins-course\">said<\/a> that the next leg for bitcoin will depend on oil prices, bond yields and Fed policy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitwise\u2019s CIO Matt Hougan set out his $1m bitcoin thesis, casting it as a direct rival to gold in the store-of-value market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95120,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Analysts warn of a near-term bear phase even as Bitwise\u2019s CIO outlines a path to $1m for bitcoin.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,18,949,1146,1205],"class_list":["post-95119","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitwise","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"138","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Analysts warn of a near-term bear phase even as Bitwise\u2019s CIO outlines a path to $1m for bitcoin.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95119","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95119"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95119\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95121,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95119\/revisions\/95121"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95120"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95119"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95119"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95119"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}