{"id":95202,"date":"2026-03-13T15:12:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-13T12:12:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=95202"},"modified":"2026-03-13T15:15:28","modified_gmt":"2026-03-13T12:15:28","slug":"on-chain-data-shows-bitcoins-limited-growth-potential","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/on-chain-data-shows-bitcoins-limited-growth-potential\/","title":{"rendered":"On-Chain Data Shows Bitcoin&#8217;s Limited Growth Potential"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The leading cryptocurrency has weathered a &#8220;stress test&#8221; amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, on-chain metrics indicate a lack of bullish momentum for a mid-term breakout, according to Glassnode.  <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k\u2013$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.<\/p>\n<p>Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far. <\/p>\n<p>\ud83d\udcc9 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ztF5eAyola\">https:\/\/t.co\/ztF5eAyola<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/QKryhvZaho\">https:\/\/t.co\/QKryhvZaho<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/g3XhYKPLst\">pic.twitter.com\/g3XhYKPLst<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/2032343178716570067?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 13, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Experts have observed accumulation in the $62,000-$72,000 range. However, the intensity of buying is less than in phases that historically preceded sustained rallies. <\/p>\n<p>They identified an increase in the share of short-term holders in profit as a preliminary condition for a sustainable recovery. The metric has fallen below 50%, indicating that most recent buyers are at a loss. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater.<br \/>Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%.<br \/>Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery.<br \/>\ud83d\udcc9\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/CY9Rl2rDeC\">pic.twitter.com\/CY9Rl2rDeC<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 glassnode (@glassnode) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/glassnode\/status\/2032346101152370788?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 13, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Analysts emphasized that demand and risk appetite will remain &#8220;suppressed&#8221; until the figure returns above 50%. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Hidden Risks and Resistance<\/h2>\n<p>CryptoQuant analyst Sunny Mom highlighted a hidden threat to the market. She noted that the greatest concern currently is the behavior of investors holding bitcoin for six to 12 months.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Is BTC Bottom In? Not Quite.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe are at a &#8216;Value Bottom&#8217; for long-term DCA, but a &#8216;Structural Bottom&#8217; has yet to form. Expect volatility between $60k\u2013$70k.\u201d \u2013 By <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/chich1217?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@chich1217<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/eBwJbuSUkP\">pic.twitter.com\/eBwJbuSUkP<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/cryptoquant_com\/status\/2032356644814831687?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 13, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Their average <span data-descr=\"Realized Price\" class=\"old_tooltip\">entry price<\/span> is concentrated around $100,000\u2014significantly higher than current levels. These market participants are currently facing unrealized losses. As long as their cost curves are upward, they pose significant resistance to growth, the analyst explained.<\/p>\n<p>Digital gold has also not yet reached a bottom, as indicated by <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> values near 1.2. Historically, this is an attractive zone for &#8220;smart money&#8221; averaging. However, the &#8220;true&#8221; cycle lows are usually accompanied by a drop in the ratio below one. The market has not yet reached &#8220;maximum pain.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>A sustainable bottom forms when the share of coins unmoved for more than two years exceeds 20% of realized capitalization. Currently, it barely reaches 15%. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Structural support from this group remains weak. This indicates the fragility of the market bottom until long-term holders regain their dominance,&#8221; explained Sunny Mom. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Two Scenarios <\/h2>\n<p>The analyst outlined two paths for forming the cycle&#8217;s low. The first is a &#8220;black swan&#8221;: a sharp collapse triggers a cascade of forced liquidations and &#8220;washes out&#8221; fresh capital that entered at peaks. Sunny Mom described this as a quick and painful path to a &#8220;solid&#8221; bottom, which could take one or two months. <\/p>\n<p>The second scenario is &#8220;great boredom.&#8221; Institutional investors continue to hold positions, and bitcoin gets stuck in the $60,000-80,000 range. During this time, &#8220;new money&#8221; ages to the status of long-term holders. In these conditions, recovery could be delayed until the end of 2026 or even early 2027. <\/p>\n<p>In the near term, the expert expects volatility in the $60,000-70,000 corridor. <\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $72,300. Its price has jumped 2.7% in the last 24 hours. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"641\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-146be7a4b4ada04d-8620189872260670-1024x641.png\" alt=\"image\" class=\"wp-image-276731\" srcset=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-146be7a4b4ada04d-8620189872260670-1024x641.png 1024w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-146be7a4b4ada04d-8620189872260670-300x188.png 300w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-146be7a4b4ada04d-8620189872260670-768x481.png 768w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-146be7a4b4ada04d-8620189872260670-1536x962.png 1536w, https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-146be7a4b4ada04d-8620189872260670.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Earlier, options traders <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/options-traders-bet-on-bitcoin-hitting-80000\">bet<\/a> on bitcoin rising to $80,000 by early summer. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin has weathered geopolitical tensions, but on-chain metrics indicate a lack of bullish momentum for a mid-term breakout, according to Glassnode.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95203,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin has weathered geopolitical tensions, but on-chain metrics indicate a lack of bullish momentum.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1205,1273,1268],"class_list":["post-95202","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptoquant","tag-glassnode","tag-on-chain-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"140","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin has weathered geopolitical tensions, but on-chain metrics indicate a lack of bullish momentum.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95202","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95202"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95202\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95204,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95202\/revisions\/95204"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95203"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95202"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95202"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95202"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}