{"id":95593,"date":"2026-03-25T21:20:16","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T18:20:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=95593"},"modified":"2026-03-25T21:25:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T18:25:32","slug":"bitwise-offers-optimistic-forecast-for-circle-after-20-stock-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitwise-offers-optimistic-forecast-for-circle-after-20-stock-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise Offers Optimistic Forecast for Circle After 20% Stock Drop"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On March 24, Circle&#8217;s shares plummeted by 20% due to concerns related to the provisions of the Clarity Act in the United States. Analysts at Bitwise defended the company, forecasting a rise in the capitalization of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-usdc-stablecoin\">USDC<\/a> to $75 billion.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">A lot of people want to invest in the stablecoin boom, and <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24CRCL&#038;src=ctag&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$CRCL<\/a> is one of the most obvious choices: pure-play stablecoin company, publicly traded.<\/p>\n<p>But how do you value it? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Matt_Hougan?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@Matt_Hougan<\/a> says you ask three questions.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 How big will stablecoins get?<br \/>\u2014 What will Circle&#8217;s market\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bitwise (@Bitwise) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Bitwise\/status\/2036826127289741346?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 25, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The market reaction is exaggerated. There is nothing in the Clarity Act news that would change forecasts for the <\/em><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-are-stablecoins\"><em>stablecoin<\/em><\/a><em> sector. Interest income has never been the main driver for &#8216;stablecoins.&#8217; The vast majority of these assets today are held in ways that do not yield interest to holders,&#8221; said Bitwise&#8217;s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The latest version of the document proposed a ban on accruing income to users solely for holding stablecoins, a point <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cryptocurrency-firms-seek-compromise-on-clarity-act-disputes\">disputed<\/a> by industry representatives. According to insiders, this wording was indeed included in the final version of the Clarity Act.<\/p>\n<p>USDC does not directly generate profits for holders, but users receive incentives and rewards through platforms like Coinbase. As competition in the &#8216;stablecoin&#8217; segment grows, any restrictions could impact Circle&#8217;s long-term growth prospects, according to the community.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;One popular opinion is that Circle&#8217;s market share will shrink as major players \u2014 Bank of America, Stripe, Wells Fargo \u2014 start issuing their own stablecoins. I&#8217;m not so sure. Historically, innovators have been quite successful in defending their early market capture,&#8221; noted Hougan.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"V4vGTq71ik\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/news\/v-jefferies-predupredili-ob-ugrozah-dlya-bankov-so-storony-stejblkoinov\">\u0412 Jefferies \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0443\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0431 \u0443\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0431\u0430\u043d\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0441\u043e \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043d\u044b \u0441\u0442\u0435\u0439\u0431\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u043e\u0432\u00a0<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u00ab\u0412 Jefferies \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0443\u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u0438\u043b\u0438 \u043e\u0431 \u0443\u0433\u0440\u043e\u0437\u0430\u0445 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0431\u0430\u043d\u043a\u043e\u0432 \u0441\u043e \u0441\u0442\u043e\u0440\u043e\u043d\u044b \u0441\u0442\u0435\u0439\u0431\u043b\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u043e\u0432\u00a0\u00bb &#8212; ForkLog\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/news\/v-jefferies-predupredili-ob-ugrozah-dlya-bankov-so-storony-stejblkoinov\/embed#?secret=CU8CywyvWP#?secret=V4vGTq71ik\" data-secret=\"V4vGTq71ik\" width=\"500\" height=\"282\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Coinbase Under Pressure<\/h2>\n<p>Similar sentiments were <a href=\"https:\/\/update.10xresearch.com\/p\/circle-vs-coinbase-the-battle-for-stablecoin-economics-has-begun\">expressed<\/a> by 10x Research founder Marcus Thielen. He stated that the market is overlooking the long-term consequences. In its current form, the bill impacts Coinbase&#8217;s distribution model more than Circle&#8217;s infrastructural role.<\/p>\n<p>The exchange derives most of its financial benefit from USDC. For stored balances, Coinbase takes nearly all the interest income. For balances outside the platform, revenue is split roughly 50\/50.<\/p>\n<p>According to Thielen&#8217;s estimates, Circle pays Coinbase over $900 million annually \u2014 about half of its profits.<\/p>\n<p>This model has made the stablecoin business highly profitable for Coinbase. If regulators ban payments similar to yield on balances, part of this advantage will be lost.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The situation increasingly favors Circle on a relative basis. Federal regulation will shift value towards issuers who operate by the rules, have scale, and a reliable balance sheet,&#8221; said the expert.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Challenges for Tether<\/h2>\n<p>Pressure on Circle&#8217;s shares was also exerted by the news that its main competitor \u2014 Tether \u2014 engaged an auditor from the &#8216;Big Four&#8217; (Deloitte, EY, PwC, or KPMG) to conduct the first full audit of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-tether-usdt\">USDT<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Tether Signs Big Four Firm to Complete First Full Audit, Setting a New Quality Standard for the Digital Asset Economy<\/p>\n<p>Read more: <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/rtsB7l4nJL\">https:\/\/t.co\/rtsB7l4nJL<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Tether (@tether) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/tether\/status\/2036428207554007133?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 24, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Previously, the company only published attestations, which did not meet the requirements of the Genius Act and were repeatedly criticized.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, analysts at William Blair <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/395086\/bitwise-circle-worth-75-billion-2030-analysts-defend-stock-selloff\">believe<\/a> that conducting an audit will not become a mandatory competitive advantage for Tether. The issuer may still face difficulties entering the US market.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;A serious obstacle to meeting the Genius requirements will be the illegal use of USDT, which is likely to attract the attention of US regulators,&#8221; they noted.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The Tether stablecoin is not officially regulated in the United States, although American users can still hold it. At the end of January, the company <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/tether-launches-federally-regulated-stablecoin-usat-in-the-us\">launched<\/a> USAT \u2014 a &#8216;stablecoin&#8217; aimed at the local market.<\/p>\n<p>In March, the Financial Stability Board of the G20 <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/fsb-warns-of-liquidity-and-dollarisation-risks-from-stablecoins\">noted<\/a> an increase in risks associated with fiat-pegged assets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On March 24, Circle&#8217;s shares fell 20% on Clarity Act news. Bitwise defended the company, forecasting USDC&#8217;s capitalization to rise to $75 billion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":26216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Circle's shares fell 20% on Clarity Act news; Bitwise forecasts USDC's capitalization to rise.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[949,1220,807,1245],"class_list":["post-95593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitwise","tag-circle","tag-stablecoins","tag-tether-usdt"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"19","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Circle's shares fell 20% on Clarity Act news; Bitwise forecasts USDC's capitalization to rise.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95593"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95593\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95594,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95593\/revisions\/95594"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/26216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}