{"id":95785,"date":"2026-04-01T10:12:52","date_gmt":"2026-04-01T07:12:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=95785"},"modified":"2026-04-02T12:52:06","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T09:52:06","slug":"fidelity-analysts-see-bitcoins-52-drop-as-market-maturity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/fidelity-analysts-see-bitcoins-52-drop-as-market-maturity\/","title":{"rendered":"Fidelity Analysts See Bitcoin’s 52% Drop as Market Maturity"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s decline has been significantly less severe than in previous periods, reports Cointelegraph<\/a>, citing Fidelity Digital Assets.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Analyst Zach Wainwright noted that in the past, after reaching all-time highs (ATH), the first cryptocurrency’s prices would plummet by 80-90%. Now, the declines after peaks are not as steep, and this trend is likely to continue.<\/p>\n

\"graph\"
Bitcoin price drawdowns after reaching ATH. Source: BitBo<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Changing Market Dynamics<\/h2>\n

According to Wainwright, when evaluating price dynamics relative to previous peaks, there is a noticeable decrease in the return on investment in digital gold.<\/p>\n

\n

“With each new cycle, growth becomes less impulsive. The risk of a deep fall in 2026 has also decreased,” the expert emphasized.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

On February 6, Bitcoin reached<\/a> a potential bottom of the current cycle around the $60,000 mark. This is 52% below the all-time high near $126,000 recorded on October 6. Currently, the asset trades 45% below<\/a> the peak values of six months ago.<\/p>\n

During the previous bear market, the decline was more severe. Prices then fell by 77%\u2014from the 2021 high ($69,000) to below $16,000 in November 2022.<\/p>\n

Bottom Already in Late September?<\/h2>\n

The less severe decline indicates market maturation, reduced volatility, and increased confidence from institutional investors, stated LVRG Research Director Nick Rack in a comment to the publication.<\/p>\n

\n

“Bitcoin is transforming from a speculative asset into a more stable store of value. In the long term, this paves the way for its widespread adoption,” he added.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Alphractal founder Jo\u00e3o Vedson noted that Bitcoin’s local maximum was reached on the 534th day after halving<\/a>\u2014much faster than in the previous cycle.<\/p>\n

\n

“Pattern fading” indicates the formation of a market bottom between the 912th and 922nd day after the miner reward reduction. According to the expert’s estimates, this stage is expected in late September or early October 2026.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Technical Picture<\/h2>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading below the 50- and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA), which serve as indicators of the long-term trend.<\/p>\n

\"MAs\"
Daily chart of BTC\/USD on Coinbase. Source: TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Meanwhile, the asset consolidates around the $69,000 mark\u2014above the 200-week EMA, which has historically served as a significant zone of dynamic support during corrections within bear market phases.<\/p>\n

As reported, amid market weakness, Ethereum outperformed<\/a> Bitcoin in price dynamics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the current market cycle, Bitcoin’s decline has been significantly less severe than in previous periods.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin's decline is less severe, indicating market maturity and reduced volatility.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1145],"class_list":["post-95785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"91","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin's decline is less severe, indicating market maturity and reduced volatility.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95787,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95785\/revisions\/95787"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}