{"id":95944,"date":"2026-04-06T16:03:23","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T13:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=95944"},"modified":"2026-04-06T16:06:42","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T13:06:42","slug":"bitcoin-tests-70000-amid-iran-ceasefire-hopes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitcoin-tests-70000-amid-iran-ceasefire-hopes\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin tests $70,000 amid Iran ceasefire hopes"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On April 6, the price of the leading cryptocurrency rose 4%, testing $70,000. The upbeat move in markets was driven by signs of a potential de-escalation of the conflict involving Iran.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $69,700.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-aa56c890dcb0dfd5-1081706338629046.webp\" alt=\"bitcoin price BTC\" class=\"wp-image-278047\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Ether rose 5.5% to $2,150.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-a225e2d1ec08307d-1081721673618094.webp\" alt=\"ethereum price ETH\" class=\"wp-image-278048\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of ETH\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3AETHUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.axios.com\/2026\/04\/06\/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks\">Axios<\/a>, the US, Israel and Iran are discussing a 25-day ceasefire. The report sparked hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>Risk assets gained, while the dollar index fell. The greenback\u2019s slide accelerated amid reports of Pakistan mediating the so-called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/china\/iran-us-receive-plan-end-hostilities-immediate-ceasefire-source-says-2026-04-06\/\">Islamabad Agreement<\/a>.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Under the deal, the truce and reopening of the strait are to take effect immediately. The probability of a ceasefire on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-polymarket\">Polymarket<\/a> jumped from 18% to 28%.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2a29fddb7c80f1ef-1081734768418422.webp\" alt=\"Polymarket: probability of a ceasefire in Iran\" class=\"wp-image-278049\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/polymarket.com\/event\/us-x-iran-ceasefire-by\">Polymarket<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>MN Trading founder Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe believes bitcoin\u2019s next move depends on the outcome of the talks. If the cryptocurrency breaks $71,000, there is room for a further move higher to $80,000.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Pretty strong momentum on the markets of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Volatility picking up, and I think it&#8217;s fireworks during this week as we might be getting to the end stage of the entire situation in the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n<p>If <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> breaks $71K, then markets are in for a test at $80K. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EUgUuFAGxk\">pic.twitter.com\/EUgUuFAGxk<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/2041075948901007456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The derivatives market remains unconvinced<\/h2>\n<p>With prices rising, open interest in bitcoin and the leading altcoin jumped by <a href=\"https:\/\/coinalyze.net\/bitcoin\/open-interest\/\">5.5%<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/coinalyze.net\/ethereum\/open-interest\/\">11%<\/a>, respectively. That points to fresh capital entering the market.<\/p>\n<p>On Deribit, the most popular option bets are a put on the first cryptocurrency with a $60,000 strike and a call with an $80,000 strike. Open interest in each contract exceeds $1.4bn.<\/p>\n<p>The <span data-descr=\"a composite metric built from six components: taker imbalance, open interest, funding rate, ETF flows, exchange flows and trend\" class=\"old_tooltip\">Bitcoin Regime Score<\/span> turned positive (+14.1) for the first time in 14 days, signalling a tentative recovery, analyst Axel Adler Jr noted.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udd34 Bitcoin funding rate just dropped to -0.43% the most negative reading in two weeks.<\/p>\n<p>At the same time, the Regime Score flipped positive: +14.1 after 13 straight bearish days.<\/p>\n<p>Two signals. Opposite directions. One of them is wrong.<\/p>\n<p>Morning Brief #141 \u2014 full breakdown at the\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/gMn4yr81i3\">pic.twitter.com\/gMn4yr81i3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Axel \ud83d\udc8e\ud83d\ude4c Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AxelAdlerJr\/status\/2041081760256012563?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>However, the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/the-funding-rate-how-it-helps-anticipate-price-reversals-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum\">funding rate<\/a> remains at its lowest in two weeks (-0.43%). According to the analyst, derivatives traders are not yet convinced of a firm reversal in bitcoin\u2019s price.<\/p>\n<p>Negative funding alongside a positive Regime Score has created a divergence that implies two possible scenarios:<\/p>\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The broader market signal proves right. As prices rise, short positions are closed and funding turns alongside the Regime Score, triggering a classic <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-short-squeeze\">short squeeze<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>The price fails to hold, the components of the Regime Score weaken and the metric returns to negative territory. In this case, funding proves to be a leading indicator.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The key indicator: whether funding rates will start to rise as the price continues to climb. That will confirm that the reversal is real, not just a technical bounce,&#8221; Adler Jr. concluded.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A positive on-chain signal<\/h2>\n<p>According to the analyst known as Darkfost, the supply of bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) is rising again. The gauge turned positive for the first time since November: on average, 308,000 BTC are moving into this cohort.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\ud83d\udcc8 Bitcoin LTH supply turns positive again<\/p>\n<p>Between geopolitical tensions and their economic consequences, the current environment remains very challenging for markets, particularly for risk assets but some investors seem to be betting on the long term.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014> We can observe that\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/KrHbNFRhgd\">pic.twitter.com\/KrHbNFRhgd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2041079613607100506?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 6, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The expert called this \u201ca constructive and favourable signal\u201d. Historically, such behavioural shifts have preceded positive price moves in the leading cryptocurrency.<\/p>\n<p>Because the metric is based on <span data-descr=\"Unspent Transaction Output \u2014 an unspent transaction output\" class=\"old_tooltip\">UTXO<\/span>, it reflects not so much active accumulation by LTH as the age of outputs created six months ago. If assets have not been spent, they automatically move from short-term to long-term.<\/p>\n<p>When overall investor behaviour tilts towards holding rather than selling, the LTH supply resumes growing. During bear phases such shifts can occur even without levels sufficient to signal a structural trend change.<\/p>\n<p>Darkfost stressed the importance of monitoring the actions of long-term holders. If the trend persists, it will become a convincing signal for the market.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier in April, Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodities strategist Mike McGlone <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bloomberg-analyst-says-bitcoin-could-sink-to-10000-if-it-fails-to-hold-75000\">predicted<\/a> a bitcoin collapse to $10,000 if the $75,000 level is lost.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin rose 4%, testing $70,000, as hopes of an Iran ceasefire lifted risk appetite; ether advanced to $2,150.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":95945,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin tested $70,000 as Iran ceasefire hopes lifted risk appetite; ether rose to $2,150.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,840,1138,26],"class_list":["post-95944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-iran","tag-opinions","tag-usa"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"18","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin tested $70,000 as Iran ceasefire hopes lifted risk appetite; ether rose to $2,150.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95944","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=95944"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95944\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":95946,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/95944\/revisions\/95946"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/95945"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=95944"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=95944"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=95944"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}