{"id":96175,"date":"2026-04-14T18:08:58","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:08:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=96175"},"modified":"2026-04-14T18:10:22","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T15:10:22","slug":"bitwise-iran-conflict-positions-bitcoin-as-a-real-settlement-medium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/bitwise-iran-conflict-positions-bitcoin-as-a-real-settlement-medium\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitwise: Iran Conflict Positions Bitcoin as a Real Settlement Medium"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The resilience of digital gold during the war in Iran aligns with risk aversion, according to Bitwise&#8217;s investment director Matt Hougan and the company&#8217;s head of research, Ryan Rasmussen. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin is apolitical money. When nations fight, the incentive to use apolitical money goes up.<\/p>\n<p>Since the Iran conflict began in late February:<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bitcoin: +12%<br \/>\u2014 S&#038;P 500: -1%<br \/>\u2014 Gold: -10%<\/p>\n<p>Expect bitcoin increasingly to act as a hedge against geopolitical chaos. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/JrzXMW0zNd\">pic.twitter.com\/JrzXMW0zNd<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Bitwise (@Bitwise) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Bitwise\/status\/2044047193754009989?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 14, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Since the onset of the Middle East conflict, Bitcoin&#8217;s price has risen by 12%, while the S&#038;P 500 and gold have fallen by 1% and 10%, respectively. <\/p>\n<p>This trend contradicts the notion that during geopolitical shocks, the leading cryptocurrency behaves as a high-risk asset. However, experts have deemed this perspective erroneous. <\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;Chaos is a ladder,&#8221; they wrote. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>According to them, Bitcoin&#8217;s rally is a consequence of the conflict: cracks in the global financial system enhance the appeal of non-sovereign money.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Two Bets in One<\/h2>\n<p>Hougan and Rasmussen described the first cryptocurrency as &#8220;two bets in one.&#8221; The first is well-known: competing with gold <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/analyst-asserts-bitcoins-inevitable-supremacy-over-gold\">for the status of a store of value<\/a>. The second, as a settlement currency in international trade, once seemed unlikely but is now rapidly gaining momentum.<\/p>\n<p>The experts linked this shift to the weaponization of financial infrastructure. Following Russia&#8217;s disconnection from SWIFT in 2022, trade increasingly occurs through alternative systems, particularly Chinese ones. <\/p>\n<p>As a result, the dollar is gradually losing ground on the periphery, creating a niche for non-dollar payment systems.<\/p>\n<p>Recent events have only strengthened this trend, the specialists noted. Reports of <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/ft-iran-to-demand-bitcoin-payments-for-passage-through-strait-of-hormuz\">Iran&#8217;s readiness to accept Bitcoin<\/a> as payment for oil transit signal a desire to bypass traditional systems, even if only experimentally.<\/p>\n<p>Bitwise acknowledged that sanctions remain in place, and blockchain transparency limits illegal use. However, the broader signal is more significant: geopolitical fragmentation is pushing countries to seek apolitical alternatives. <\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">$1 Million as a Starting Point<\/h2>\n<p>Experts believe these changes directly impact Bitcoin&#8217;s valuation. They compared the cryptocurrency&#8217;s currency scenario to an out-of-the-money call option: its price rises with the likelihood of adoption and global volatility.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>&#8220;The probabilistic part is simple: a call option to buy a stock at $120 becomes more expensive when the stock rises from $100 to $110. Volatility is more complex, but the principle is the same: if a $100 stock becomes twice as volatile, the probability of reaching $120 increases\u2014simply due to stronger fluctuations,&#8221; Hougan and Rasmussen explained. <\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Both conditions are met: the conflict has undermined the global currency order while simultaneously bringing Bitcoin closer to the role of a real settlement medium. <\/p>\n<p>The role of digital gold is changing: Bitwise expects Bitcoin to become a hedge against geopolitical chaos, rather than just a speculative asset dependent on liquidity.<\/p>\n<p>This also alters long-term expectations. If the asset establishes itself as a store of value and a unit of account, current price targets may be underestimated. Experts now consider a $1 million rate as a baseline, not a ceiling.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency is trading around $75,200\u2014the highest since early February. Over the past 24 hours, the coin&#8217;s quotes have jumped by 4.5%. <\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-2c1401f3323c5d07-1780574488060768.webp\" alt=\"\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430 \u0431\u0438\u0442\u043a\u043e\u0438\u043d\u0430 btc bitcoin price\" class=\"wp-image-278449\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Macro analyst Jordi Visser <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/expert-identifies-bitcoin-level-for-bullish-trend-confirmation\">identified<\/a> breaking the $76,000 mark as a key condition for establishing a bullish trend.  <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The resilience of digital gold during the war in Iran aligns with risk aversion, according to Bitwise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96176,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Experts consider a $1 million price level as \"baseline\" for the cryptocurrency.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,949,840,1138],"class_list":["post-96175","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-bitwise","tag-iran","tag-opinions"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"12","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Experts consider a $1 million price level as \"baseline\" for the cryptocurrency.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96175"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96175\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96177,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96175\/revisions\/96177"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}