{"id":96260,"date":"2026-04-17T12:08:28","date_gmt":"2026-04-17T09:08:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=96260"},"modified":"2026-04-17T12:10:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-17T09:10:18","slug":"analysts-warn-of-short-squeeze-risks-in-cryptocurrency-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-warn-of-short-squeeze-risks-in-cryptocurrency-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts Warn of Short Squeeze Risks in Cryptocurrency Market"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s return to levels above $75,000 is met with skepticism: margin traders doubt the continuation of the price rise, writes <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-16\/bitcoin-s-fragile-recovery-sets-up-a-big-short-squeeze-risk\">Bloomberg<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/the-funding-rate-how-it-helps-anticipate-price-reversals-in-bitcoin-and-ethereum\">Funding rates<\/a> for perpetual futures have remained negative for about 46 consecutive days. This is one of the longest periods of bearish sentiment in the history of derivatives, comparable only to the aftermath of the FTX exchange collapse at the end of 2022.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-8c936bcdaaee44b0-2017926677213387.webp\" alt=\"fund_rate\" class=\"wp-image-278577\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dynamics of the funding rate for bitcoin-based perpetual futures. Source: Glassnode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>According to agency analysts, there is a noticeable gap between the positive dynamics of spot prices and the pessimistic positioning in futures. Such discrepancies often lead to large-scale liquidations. <\/p>\n<p>If quotes continue to rise, holders of short positions will start incurring losses and will be forced to close them en masse. This process, known as a <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-short-squeeze\">short squeeze<\/a>, can trigger a sharp price surge. The longer the pressure persists, the stronger the price impulse may be.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cTraders are actively increasing short positions, betting against the breakout. This creates conditions where a short squeeze becomes more likely if the upward momentum continues,\u201d noted K33&#8217;s head of research, Vetle Lunde.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Factors Supporting the Asset<\/h2>\n<p>Despite traders&#8217; skepticism, the leading cryptocurrency has gained about 11% from April&#8217;s local lows.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-bb9513a679af6622-2018039100719281-scaled.webp\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2026-04-17_11-32-34_278e7\" class=\"wp-image-278578\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Four-hour chart of BTC\/USDT on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/ru.tradingview.com\/symbols\/BTCUSDT\/\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Several fundamental factors are supporting the market:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Capital inflow.<\/strong> American spot <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">bitcoin ETFs<\/a> are increasingly showing positive fund inflows;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Institutional actions.<\/strong> Michael Saylor&#8217;s Strategy company has <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/strategy-acquires-13927-btc-for-1-billion\">acquired bitcoins<\/a> worth $2.6 billion in just the past two weeks. According to FalconX senior derivatives trader Bohan Jiang, these transactions have significantly strengthened the market;<\/li>\n<li><strong>Wall Street initiatives.<\/strong> Brokerage corporation Charles Schwab <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/post\/397756\/charles-schwab-begins-rollout-spot-bitcoin-ethereum-trading-platform?utm_source=telegram1&#038;utm_medium=social\">announced<\/a> the launch of spot crypto trading, allowing up to 8.8% portfolio allocation in digital gold. Morgan Stanley <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/morgan-stanley-seeks-approval-for-bitcoin-etf-launch\">became<\/a> the first major bank with its own exchange-traded fund based on the first cryptocurrency.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-bc25df8b0d56cbf2-2018072248504407.webp\" alt=\"ETF\" class=\"wp-image-278579\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Dynamics of weekly inflows and outflows from spot ETFs. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Experts warned: the abundance of positive news makes short positions vulnerable. Any of the listed triggers could provoke a spike in volatility and a bear capitulation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p>\u201cA breakthrough above $76,000 could drive BTC to $85,000. Such a rally could catch many off guard,\u201d believes Kaiko analyst Lorenz Fraussen.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Resistance and Risks<\/h2>\n<p>Bears still have a chance for profit if the upward trend halts. According to Deribit exchange data, options market participants are willing to pay high premiums for downside protection: open interest is concentrated around put contracts with strikes at $60,000 and $50,000.<\/p>\n<p>If growth continues, the leading cryptocurrency may face strong resistance. According to Bohan Jiang&#8217;s observations, options dealers using market-neutral strategies sell the asset on price increases, with their largest positions concentrated around $80,000.<\/p>\n<p>At the time of writing, bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/bitcoin?chart=type%3Dprice%26mode%3Dline%26timeframe%3Dmax\">trades<\/a> around $75,500\u201440% below the all-time high of approximately $126,000 set in October.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/cryptoquant-analysts-warn-of-profit-taking-risk-in-bitcoin\">warned<\/a> of the risk of mass profit-taking in the cryptocurrency market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s return to levels above $75,000 is met with skepticism: margin traders doubt the continuation of the price rise.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96261,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin's return above $75,000 is met with skepticism from margin traders.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[609,1145],"class_list":["post-96260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-futures","tag-market-analysis"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"46","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin's return above $75,000 is met with skepticism from margin traders.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96260"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96262,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96260\/revisions\/96262"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96261"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}