{"id":96521,"date":"2026-04-27T10:13:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-27T07:13:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=96521"},"modified":"2026-04-27T10:15:13","modified_gmt":"2026-04-27T07:15:13","slug":"researchers-question-the-wisdom-of-crowds-on-polymarket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/researchers-question-the-wisdom-of-crowds-on-polymarket\/","title":{"rendered":"Researchers Question the &#8216;Wisdom of Crowds&#8217; on Polymarket"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A group of scholars from the London Business School and Yale University <a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6617059\">analyzed<\/a> transactions on <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-polymarket\">Polymarket<\/a> from 2023 to 2025. The authors concluded that the platform&#8217;s forecast accuracy is driven by an &#8216;informed minority&#8217; rather than the &#8216;wisdom of crowds&#8217;.<\/p>\n<p>Only 3.14% of users were identified as &#8216;skilled winners&#8217;. This group, along with <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-market-maker\">market makers<\/a>, captures more than 30% of the total profits on the platform.<\/p>\n<p>The study covered 1.7 million accounts and transactions amounting to $13.76 billion.<\/p>\n<p>However, overall income does not always indicate a trader&#8217;s skill. The analysis showed that only 12% of the most profitable accounts truly possess a strategy. About 60% of &#8216;lucky users&#8217; began to incur losses when market conditions changed. Most participants (67%) remain in the red due to lack of experience or bad luck.<\/p>\n<p>The researchers also found signs of insider trading. They identified 1,950 accounts that executed trades just before significant events and ceased activity after their conclusion.<\/p>\n<p>As an example, they cited bets on the resignation of former Venezuelan President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. Trades occurred shortly before the U.S. officially announced the military operation &#8216;Absolute Resolve&#8217; to capture the politician.<\/p>\n<p>The findings contradict the stance of Polymarket and Kalshi&#8217;s leadership. The heads of these companies often claim that prediction markets outperform experts due to the collective intelligence of participants.<\/p>\n<p>In April, the U.S. Department of Justice charged active-duty serviceman Gannon Kane Van Dyke, who is suspected of using classified information for betting on Polymarket.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Scientists analyzed transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025. They concluded that the platform&#8217;s forecast accuracy is driven by an &#8216;informed minority&#8217;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96522,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Study finds Polymarket's accuracy driven by informed minority, not crowd wisdom.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1148,1595,167],"class_list":["post-96521","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-polymarket","tag-prediction-markets","tag-research"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"10","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Study finds Polymarket's accuracy driven by informed minority, not crowd wisdom.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96521","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96523,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96521\/revisions\/96523"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}