{"id":96664,"date":"2026-04-30T11:36:11","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T08:36:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=96664"},"modified":"2026-04-30T11:40:16","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T08:40:16","slug":"arthur-hayes-foresees-hyperliquids-dominance-in-prediction-markets-with-hype","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/arthur-hayes-foresees-hyperliquids-dominance-in-prediction-markets-with-hype\/","title":{"rendered":"Arthur Hayes Foresees Hyperliquid&#8217;s Dominance in Prediction Markets with HYPE"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The primary competitive edge of the decentralized exchange <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/the-price-of-popularity-and-a-lesson-for-all-hyperliquid\">Hyperliquid<\/a> in the prediction market sector will be its HYPE token. This view was shared by BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in an interview with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/markets\/2026\/04\/30\/hyperliquid-s-hype-token-could-be-its-prediction-market-weapon-arthur-hayes-says\">CoinDesk<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>According to him, users will not only trade bets on event outcomes but also directly participate in the platform&#8217;s economy through the native coin. This structurally distinguishes Hyperliquid from Kalshi and <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-polymarket\">Polymarket<\/a>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cHIP-4 will take the lead due to the platform&#8217;s user base, low fees, and solid technical foundation. Holders of the native token will directly benefit from its activity,\u201d the expert explained.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On Kalshi, a trader does not gain a share in the platform&#8217;s economy \u2014 they simply buy and sell contracts. The platform is regulated by the CFTC and remains without a tokenized incentive layer.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Polymarket is preparing to launch its own token. In the Gate pre-market, perpetual contracts for POLY <a href=\"https:\/\/www.gate.com\/futures\/USDT\/POLYMARKET_USDT\">trade<\/a> around $14 \u2014 this corresponds to an <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/fdv-explained-what-it-is-and-how-it-moves-crypto-prices\">FDV<\/a> of approximately $14 billion. For comparison, HYPE&#8217;s current figure exceeds $38 billion.\u00a0<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-1857158ee19ca088-3139384806416904.webp\" alt=\"Hyperliquid (HYPE) price\" class=\"wp-image-279275\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/en\/coins\/hyperliquid\">CoinGecko<\/a>.\u00a0<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Hyperliquid enters the market with a ready mechanism for redistributing value within its ecosystem, Hayes emphasized.\u00a0<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Geography<\/h2>\n<p>Hayes also cited regulatory asymmetry as an additional factor.<\/p>\n<p>Kalshi operates in the US under the supervision of the <span data-descr=\"US Commodity Futures Trading Commission\" class=\"old_tooltip\">CFTC<\/span> \u2014 for it, compliance is more important than tokenomics. Polymarket, after registering in the US, is tightening its legal framework and facing restrictions in Asia: the service is blocked or partially restricted in Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, and Japan.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"100%\" height=\"420\" frameborder=\"0\" src=\"https:\/\/www.theblock.co\/data\/decentralized-finance\/prediction-markets\/polymarket-and-kalshi-volume-monthly\/embed\" title=\"Polymarket, Polymarket US and Kalshi Volume (Monthly)\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Hyperliquid faces no such barriers. Its audience is initially skewed towards Asian traders \u2014 where retail and semi-institutional event betting has long been a significant part of the market.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Active Testing\u00a0<\/h2>\n<p>In March, the leading <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/perp-dex-old-tricks-new-tech\">perp-DEX<\/a> deployed the HIP-4 protocol with prediction markets in the testnet. Betting on event outcomes will become an additional layer within the already existing Hyperliquid ecosystem.<\/p>\n<p>Users will be able to open positions on event outcomes just as they currently trade perpetual contracts. For now, during testing, clients have access to binary options on HyperCore&#8217;s base prices.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The new feature will be based on so-called outcome tokens. In April, the platform introduced a <a href=\"https:\/\/hyperliquid.gitbook.io\/hyperliquid-docs\/trading\/fees#outcome-tokens-testnet-only\">fee structure<\/a> for these assets: opening a position will be free, with fees charged only upon closing or settling a trade.<\/p>\n<p>Back in April, a group of scholars from the London Business School and Yale University <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/researchers-question-the-wisdom-of-crowds-on-polymarket\">analyzed<\/a> transactions on Polymarket from 2023 to 2025. The authors concluded that the platform&#8217;s prediction accuracy is ensured by an \u201cinformed minority,\u201d rather than the \u201cwisdom of the crowd.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The primary competitive edge of Hyperliquid in the prediction market sector will be its HYPE token, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":96665,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Hyperliquid's HYPE token is set to lead prediction markets, says Arthur Hayes.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1193,1823,1138,1595],"class_list":["post-96664","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-arthur-hayes","tag-hyperliquid","tag-opinions","tag-prediction-markets"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"15","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Hyperliquid's HYPE token is set to lead prediction markets, says Arthur Hayes.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96664","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96664"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96664\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":96666,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96664\/revisions\/96666"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/96665"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96664"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96664"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96664"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}