{"id":97022,"date":"2026-05-12T11:56:18","date_gmt":"2026-05-12T08:56:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/?p=97022"},"modified":"2026-05-12T12:03:56","modified_gmt":"2026-05-12T09:03:56","slug":"analysts-see-bitcoin-emerging-from-its-bear-phase","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/analysts-see-bitcoin-emerging-from-its-bear-phase\/","title":{"rendered":"Analysts see bitcoin emerging from its bear phase"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>On May 11 the price of digital gold tested <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-briefly-tests-82000\">$82,000<\/a>, yet derivatives data point to trader caution.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-7b3505818638c690-4177301284073839.webp\" alt=\"BTCUSDT_2026-05-12_10-27-49\" class=\"wp-image-279862\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Hourly BTC\/USDT chart on Binance. Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/chart\/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT\">TradingView<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>At the time of writing the leading cryptocurrency changes hands at $81,073 (+0.4% on the day).\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The annualised funding rate on bitcoin perpetual futures briefly jumped to 6%\u2014its first move out of negative territory in more than a month.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-d9876650e9374322-4177316727611169.webp\" alt=\"pasted-image-535\" class=\"wp-image-279863\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/app.laevitas.ch\/assets\/perpswaps\/BTC\/funding\">Laevitas<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Spot bitcoin <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-cryptocurrency-etf\">ETFs<\/a> in the US add pressure. Outflows were recorded on May 7 and 8. Institutional interest weakened just as the coin failed several times to break $82,000.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/img-414abda1faa0ce35-4177335565267818.webp\" alt=\"\u0421\u043d\u0438\u043c\u043e\u043a \u044d\u043a\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0430 2026-05-12 103505\" class=\"wp-image-279864\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/sosovalue.com\/assets\/etf\/us-btc-spot\">SoSoValue<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Reasons to rally<\/h2>\n<p>Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, says bitcoin has no clear reason to fall. In his words, the market has coalesced around the idea of a \u201cbear flag\u201d and a move to $50,000 by year-end; he disagrees.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">There&#8217;s clearly no reason to expect <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> to fall, out of nowhere.<\/p>\n<p>There&#8217;s the general consensus that we&#8217;re in a bear flag and that we must see $50K later this year.<\/p>\n<p>How so? <\/p>\n<p>Didn&#8217;t we have to see no new ATH before the halving either?<\/p>\n<p>The recent shock in February has been\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/S68oRHV5SF\">pic.twitter.com\/S68oRHV5SF<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/2053907486743081002?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Ahead of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-bitcoin-halving\">halving<\/a>, many likewise did not expect a new all-time high. Since the February pullback, the asset has held above the 21-day <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-a-moving-average-and-how-is-it-used-in-crypto\">moving average<\/a>, flipping former resistance into support and drawing steady demand. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, remains firm.<\/p>\n<p>He puts the next resistance zone at $85,000\u2013$88,000.<\/p>\n<p>He notes that each breakout is met with calls for a reversal\u2014whether the Nasdaq\u2019s advance or bitcoin\u2019s bounce from $60,000 to $70,000. In his view, participants are missing the main point: a shift in market regime.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Every time there&#8217;s a breakout upwards, the first response is that the markets must reverse back down. <\/p>\n<p>&#8216;The Nasdaq breaks upwards, we must crash!&#8217;<br \/>&#8216;<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/Bitcoin?src=hash&#038;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Bitcoin<\/a> bounces from $60K to $70K, we must go down!&#8217;<\/p>\n<p>People miss the bigger picture and that&#8217;s a complete regime switch. <\/p>\n<p>The\u2026<\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Micha\u00ebl van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CryptoMichNL\/status\/2053924603714580568?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 11, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He suggested that cryptocurrencies could become the main payments infrastructure for AI. Buyers of spot ETFs are acquiring millions of bitcoins daily, and the number of holders has hit an all-time high. Altcoins are breaking resistance levels while still 80% below their peaks.<\/p>\n<p>Van de Poppe suggested the market is exiting its bear phase and advised investors to stay calm.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Odds of a breakout<\/h2>\n<p>An analyst known as Darkfost said bitcoin has yet to reclaim the breakeven level of short-term holders (STH). Many market participants, he added, are misreading current charts.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u274c BTC REGAINING THE STH COST BASIS<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m seeing posts saying that BTC managed to break above the STH cost basis.<br \/>In reality, BTC has still not closed above this level, contrary to what some charts suggest.<\/p>\n<p>\u2014\ud83d\udca1In this version of the indicator, I have removed as best as possible\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/IGFa96ZhiL\">pic.twitter.com\/IGFa96ZhiL<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Darkfost_Coc\/status\/2054087390239559771?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>A data distortion, he said, stemmed from the movement of 800,000 BTC on Coinbase. The coins had sat dormant, but after the transfer the system tagged them as new short-term purchases around $84,000, artificially lowering STHs\u2019 average cost basis.<\/p>\n<p>Darkfost presented an adjusted version of the indicator. By his estimate, the true STH cost basis stands at $81,800.<\/p>\n<p>He argues that to resume the bull trend, price must close a daily or weekly candle above $81,800.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Institutions have altered bitcoin\u2019s cycles<\/h2>\n<p>Falling volatility and institutional inflows have changed bitcoin\u2019s market cycles, said CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p lang=\"ko\" dir=\"ltr\">&#8220;\uc9c0\uae08 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778, \uc5b4\ub5bb\uac8c \ubd10\uc57c \ud560\uae4c&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>\uc2dc\uac04\uc774 \uc9c0\ub0a8\uc5d0 \ub530\ub77c \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed\uc740 \uc790\uc5f0\uc2a4\ub7fd\uac8c \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uac8c \ub418\ub294\ub370, \uadf8\ub85c \uc778\ud574 \ube44\ud2b8\ucf54\uc778 MVRV\uc758 \ubcc0\ub3d9\ud3ed\ub3c4 \uc904\uc5b4\ub4e4\uace0 \uc788\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub9ac\uace0 \ud604\uc7ac\ub294 \ud604\ubb3c ETF\uc640 \ubbf8\uad6d\uc774\ub77c\ub294 \uac70\ub300 \uad6d\uac00\uc758 \uac1c\uc785, \uae30\uad00\ub4e4\uc758 \uc720\uc785\uc73c\ub85c \uacfc\uac70\uc640 \ub2e4\ub978 \uc6c0\uc9c1\uc784\uc744 \uc608\uc0c1\ud574\uc57c \ud55c\ub2e4.<\/p>\n<p>\uadf8\ub807\uae30 \ub54c\ubb38\uc5d0\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/jW5ZI2QDAL\">pic.twitter.com\/jW5ZI2QDAL<\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u2014 Crypto Dan (@DanCoinInvestor) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DanCoinInvestor\/status\/2054018733488951420?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 12, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p> <script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>He argues the range of the <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/what-is-the-mvrv-indicator\">MVRV<\/a> indicator is narrowing alongside price swings. Approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US and interest from large players have made the current cycle unique; price action now diverges from historical patterns.<\/p>\n<p>Crypto Dan believes investors should not wait for classic bottom signals. What matters now is flexible analysis and swift adaptation.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\">\n<p><em>\u201cNo one has encountered such a cycle before. Being ready to act now will be a condition for high returns in the future,\u201d \u2014 the expert concluded.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>On May 8, the price of the leading cryptocurrency <a href=\"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/news\/bitcoin-tests-support-at-80000-amid-geopolitical-tensions\">fell<\/a> below $80,000 amid <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/05\/07\/us\/politics\/iran-us-ships-attack-strait-hormuz.html\">\u0443\u0434\u0430\u0440\u043e\u0432<\/a> by the United States on targets in Iran.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On May 11 bitcoin tested $82,000, yet derivatives data suggest traders remain cautious.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":97023,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"select":"1","news_style_id":"1","cryptorium_level":"","_short_excerpt_text":"Bitcoin tests $82,000 as derivatives hint caution; analysts eye breakout and regime shift.","creation_source":"","_metatest_mainpost_news_update":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[480,1146,1205],"class_list":["post-97022","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-and-analysis","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-cryptocurrency-market-forecasts","tag-cryptoquant"],"aioseo_notices":[],"amp_enabled":true,"views":"2","promo_type":"1","layout_type":"1","short_excerpt":"Bitcoin tests $82,000 as derivatives hint caution; analysts eye breakout and regime shift.","is_update":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97022","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=97022"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97022\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":97024,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/97022\/revisions\/97024"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/97023"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=97022"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=97022"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forklog.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=97022"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}