Bitcoin sinks below $104,000 after Israeli strikes on Iran

On 12 June, the prices of bitcoin and Ethereum fell after reports of Israeli air strikes on Iran. The escalation prompted investors to pull back from risk assets.

Over the past 24 hours, bitcoin dropped 3.6%, slipping below $104,000. At the time of writing it traded at $103,970.

Ethereum fell 9.2% to $2,503.

The market slide followed reports by Associated Press of explosions in Tehran. An unnamed Israeli military official confirmed the strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure.

According to CNN, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, declared a state of emergency. He said that “a missile and drone attack is expected in the near future” as a retaliatory measure.

Against this backdrop, oil prices rose by more than 7%. The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate climbed to $71.94 a barrel. International benchmark Brent rose to $73.16.

Nick Rak, director at LVRG Research, told The Block that pressure on cryptocurrencies reflected a shift into safer instruments.

Presto Research analyst Min Jung likewise linked the sell-off in digital assets to the strikes on Iran. He noted that oil prices exceeded $70 for the first time in three months.

Mike Novogratz’s long-term forecast

Despite short-term volatility, some big players remain upbeat. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes bitcoin could rise tenfold to $1 million.

In his view, bitcoin will in time displace gold as the primary store of value, which would drive the rally.

Novogratz noted that younger generations are increasingly interested in digital assets, while enthusiasm for the precious metal is waning. He emphasised that to reach parity with gold’s market capitalisation, bitcoin would need to rise tenfold.

He called “macroeconomic adoption” the key driver of growth. The process, he said, has entered an irreversible phase.

“Corporate treasuries, sovereign funds and retail investors are now investing in the asset. Simpler ways to buy it have emerged. The adoption of bitcoin as a macro asset for preserving value is already a snowball rolling down the hill,” the head of Galaxy Digital added.

“Soft reversal point”

From a technical perspective, the current correction in digital gold looks warranted. The price jumped by roughly 10% between 6 and 10 June, so a 3.5% drop can be viewed as normal. That is the view of CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler Jr, who said the market has reached a “soft reversal point”.

In the current hour, there is a clear closing of long positions supported by aggressive short volume. This is a classic “soft reversal point” after an uptrend: as long as funding remains positive but open interest is declining, you should expect a short-term correction or… pic.twitter.com/oKIdwUb5mZ

— Axel ?? Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) June 12, 2025

According to the analyst, the price decline is likely tied to profit-taking on long positions at resistance, as confirmed by aggressive short volume.

Adler Jr explained:

“This is a classic ‘soft reversal point’ after an uptrend: as long as funding remains positive but open interest is declining, you should expect a short-term correction or consolidation below $108,000.”

Impact of US inflation news

On 11 June bitcoin pulled back to $107,369, and Ethereum to $2,746. The decline followed US inflation data that beat forecasts and triggered profit-taking on a “buy the rumour, sell the news” basis, Decrypt wrote.

The initial impulse, which pushed bitcoin above $110,000 and Ethereum to nearly $2,880, faded quickly. The fear and greed index fell from 72 to 71. By the time of writing it had slipped to 61.

Technical analysis indicates that bitcoin remains within an ascending channel formed in mid-May. That suggests the current pullback is a correction rather than a trend change.

The asset is trading comfortably above the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), confirming buyer strength.

Key indicators paint a restrained picture:

• The relative strength index (RSI) at a neutral 55 signals fading recent momentum but not oversold conditions;
• The average directional index (ADX) at 17 indicates a weak trend, pointing to consolidation rather than strong directional movement.

The longer-term setup remains bullish, with EMA50 above EMA200. Key support sits near the lower boundary of the rising channel around $103,000. Holding that level would preserve the potential for a move toward record highs.

Ethereum’s chart looks more optimistic than bitcoin’s. The asset broke above the upper boundary of its consolidation channel, where price had ranged between $2,400 and $2,700. It has repeatedly bounced from support, bolstering trader confidence.

ETH’s technicals are more upbeat:

• RSI at 62 is nearing overbought territory but still leaves room for further gains;
• ADX at 25 points to a more pronounced trend than bitcoin’s.

Support at $2,400–2,500 offers a decent entry point. A breakout above $2,850 could open the way to $3,000 and $3,300.

On 9 June, the price of the leading cryptocurrency rose above $107,000 amid outflows from spot ETFs and reports of unrest in the United States.