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March in Figures: Inflows to DeFi and Bitcoin’s Recovery Amid the Banking Crisis

March in Figures: Inflows to DeFi and Bitcoin’s Recovery Amid the Banking Crisis

Bitcoin closed its best quarter since early 2021; Fear and Greed index at yearly high; DeFi liquidity inflows. March ForkLog recap.

Key highlights

  • Bitcoin closed its best quarter since the start of 2021. Leading cryptocurrencies were in demand amid the crisis in the U.S. banking sector.
  • “Fear and Greed Index” updated its annual high, signalling investor optimism.
  • Liquidity inflows continued into the decentralised finance sector.
  • On-chain indicators signal the potential for further upside in the first cryptocurrency.
  • Profit-taking was largely concentrated on centralised exchanges by speculators. Hodlers remain steadfast.
  • Hashrate and mining difficulty for digital gold reached new highs again.
  • Investors showed strong interest in crypto derivatives. Open interest in options reached an all-time high.
  • Depeg of USDC led to significant changes in the stablecoins segment.

Dynamics of Leading Assets

Daily BTC/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.
Daily BTC/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.
Daily ETH/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.
Daily ETH/USDT chart on Binance. Data: TradingView.
  • U.S. regulators charged several industry figures (Huobi, Coinbase, Justin Sun, SushiSwap). Despite the negative reaction to Bitcoin and the market (on March 10 the price dipped to $20,000), sentiment quickly turned bullish.
  • A banking crisis began in the United States and amid macroeconomic instability, the crypto market posted notable gains, and its market capitalization returned to above $1 trillion. On March 30, Bitcoin hit a local high above $29,000.
  • By the month’s end, Bitcoin was up 22.96% and Ethereum 13.46%. In Q1 2023, both cryptocurrencies rose by 71.77% and 52.15%, respectively.
Gainers & Losers of the month (projects with capitalization and volume over $200m). Data: Messari.
Gainers & Losers of the month (projects with capitalization and volume over $200m). Data: Messari.
Gainers & Losers of the month (projects with capitalization and volume over $200m). Data: Messari.

Among the successful projects in March, the Avalanche-based token Trader Joe (JOE) stood out. Platform trading volume rose significantly thanks to the prior integration of a new liquidity-provision model. Additionally, the DEX added support for Arbitrum, and after listing, its DAO received a substantial ARB allocation. Other gainers include Swipe (SXP) and Conflux (CFX). The former announced a rebranding to Solar, and the latter expanded in Asia with new partnerships.

Losers of the month included Terra Luna Classic (LUNC) — amid the arrest of Terraform Labs founder Do Kwon — as well as Maker (MKR) and Fetch.ai (FET).

Stocks of crypto-related companies

MicroStrategy (MSTR)
+10.78%

Coinbase (COIN):
+3.48%

Bakkt (BKKT):
+17%

Galaxy Digital (GLXY):
+8.4%

Mining equities performance

Canaan (CAN):
−5.92%

Ebang International (EBON):
−9.78%

Riot Blockchain (RIOT):
+56.58%

Hut 8 (HUT):
+12.8%

Marathon Digital (MARA):
+21.45%

Market sentiment, correlations and volatility

Fear and Greed Index dynamics
Fear and Greed Index dynamics. Data: alternative.me.
Fear and Greed Index dynamics
  • In March, the Fear and Greed Index updated its annual high, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, reaching 68. This level is consistent with November 2021 when Bitcoin prices neared $20,000 and then moved to an all-time high.
  • The index’s low of 33 was recorded on March 12. The drop was attributed to panic following the depeg of the USD Coin (USDC) from the U.S. dollar.
  • The index’s trajectory points to investor optimism despite banking sector concerns and intensified regulatory pressure on sector players. This may signal the start of a new bull run.
90-day asset correlation indicators
90-day asset correlation indicators. Data: BlockchainCenter.
Bitcoin BVOL24H intraday historical volatility index
Bitcoin BVOL24H intraday volatility index dynamics. Data: BitMEX.
  • In March, Bitcoin’s statistical correlation with the U.S. stock market weakened significantly. Its correlation with the S&P 500 fell to 0.27 (0.42 in February), and with the Dow Jones index to 0.25 (0.38 the previous month).
  • Bitcoin price and gold moved in lockstep; however, the correlation between the two assets strengthened to 0.25 from 0.15 in February. Against the backdrop of the banking crisis, the digital asset demonstrates better performance relative to traditional financial instruments.
  • The average BVOL24H over the last month stood at $3, higher than February’s $2.1.
  • The indicator reached a high of $6.1 on March 14, when prices rose above $26,000.

Macro backdrop

Change in bank deposits in U.S. commercial banks. Data: Bloomberg.
Change in deposits in U.S. commercial banks. Data: Bloomberg.
Federal Reserve balance sheet dynamics. Data: ZeroHedge.
Federal Reserve balance sheet dynamics. Data: ZeroHedge.
  • Stabilising sentiment reopens the case for a 25 basis point hike by the Fed at the May 3 meeting. The probability rose to 48.4%. During the peak of banking turmoil, traders leaned toward a cut or keeping rates unchanged.
  • In March the Fed raised the target range to 4.75–5%. The path forward will depend on banking sector developments and upcoming macro data—especially services inflation and employment (April 7).
  • The Fed’s liquidity injections helped the S&P and Nasdaq-100 close the first quarter up 7% and 20.5%, respectively. Bitcoin tested the level above $29,000.

On-chain data

MVRV Z-Score dynamics. Data: Look Into Bitcoin.
MVRV Z-Score dynamics. Data: Look Into Bitcoin.
  • The MVRV Z-Score reached its highest level since the start of May 2022 — 0.6. The last time the metric was at such a level was ahead of the Terra collapse.
  • A gradual move away from oversold green zone suggests continued market recovery.
Number of addresses with ≥ 0.01 BTC (thousands) and Bitcoin price. Data: Glassnode.
Number of addresses with ≥ 0.01 BTC (thousand) and Bitcoin price. Data: Glassnode.
addresses-with-1-BTC
Number of addresses with ≥ 1 BTC (thousand) and Bitcoin price. Data: Glassnode.
  • The number of small addresses — balance ≥0.01 BTC — continued to rise toward new highs after the late February–early March dip that tested the $20,000 price level.
  • A similar, though less pronounced, pattern is seen among other retail addresses — for example, those with ≥1 BTC balance. Since the start of the year, the metric for this category has grown by 1.3%.
  • The growth in small-address balances may point to a gradual increase in new crypto investors and their desire to accumulate more digital gold amid turmoil in traditional finance.
Net transfers of Bitcoins to and from exchanges. Data: Glassnode.
Net transfers of Bitcoins to and from exchanges. Data: Glassnode.
Liveliness
Liveliness indicator dynamics. Data: Glassnode.
  • Analysts at Glassnode concluded that amid March’s rally investors boosted the inflow of Bitcoin to centralized platforms to 4,180 BTC (14D-EMA) — a maximum since Terra’s collapse in May 2022. The trend underscores profit-taking by many market participants.
  • However, observations suggest that over 90% of coins moved to exchanges in late March belonged to speculators.
  • For hodlers, the stance remains unyielding, as shown by the Liveliness. The indicator continues to point to large players’ willingness to hold Bitcoin and confidence in the asset’s prospects.

Ethereum

Daily ETH burn rate and validators count
Daily ETH burn and validators count. Data: Etherscan.
Balances of Ethereum on centralized exchanges and the share of ETH offered in smart contracts
Balances of Ethereum on centralized exchanges and the share of ETH staked in smart contracts. Data: Glassnode.
  • Since activation of EIP-1559, the Ethereum network has burned over 3 million coins. Of these, more than 92,000 ETH burned in March (around 85,000 ETH in February). The burn rate has accelerated for the third consecutive month, aided by market recovery and rising DeFi activity.
  • According to Ultrasound Money, over the last 30 days the supply of Ethereum decreased by 33,000 ETH. The largest net outflow (8,500 ETH) occurred through Uniswap-related operations, with transfers between network participants (~5,450 ETH) following.
  • As of March, the share of ETH and its locked value in smart contracts rose to 26.96%. .
  • Over the period, total Ethereum on centralized exchanges fell by 3.5%. The two latest metrics point to growing investor interest in decentralized applications of the ecosystem ahead of the Shapella upgrade, which will activate on 12 April.
Total ETH staked and validators count
Total ETH staked and validators count. Data: Glassnode.
Ethereum 2.0 addresses with balance ≥ 32 ETH
Ethereum 2.0 addresses with a balance of ≥ 32 ETH. Data: Glassnode.
  • In March, the number of validators rose by 3.5% to 570,653. The amount of assets in staking surpassed 18 million coins. Since the start of the year, the metric has grown by almost 14%.
  • The number of unique addresses that deposited 32 ETH or more remained essentially unchanged over the month.

Lightning Network

Lightning Network capacity dynamics
Lightning Network capacity dynamics. Data: Glassnode.
Number of nodes and channels in Lightning Network
Number of nodes and channels on the Lightning Network. Data: Glassnode.
  • At month’s end, Lightning Network capacity fell by 7%. In February the metric had recorded an all-time high of 5,206 BTC.
  • The number of nodes and channels also dropped by 22% and 19% respectively. The trend may reflect rising popularity of services that provide users with payment infrastructure, such as Kraken’s offering.
  • According to mempool.space, almost 55% of nodes are hosted on Google and Amazon cloud servers.

Mining, Hashrate, Fees

Bitcoin hashrate dynamics, EH/s.
Bitcoin hashrate dynamics, EH/s. Data: Glassnode.
Bitcoin mining difficulty
Bitcoin mining difficulty. Data: Coin Metrics.
  • Against a recovering market, Bitcoin’s hashrate (7 MA) hit a fresh high near ~350 EH/s. Since the start of the year, the metric has risen by ~26%. The steadily rising trend signals confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term prospects and in mining.
  • The mining difficulty, closely tied to hashrate, again reached an all-time high — 46.84 T. Since the start of the year the indicator has risen by ~33%.
Hashprice dynamics
Hashprice dynamics. Data: Hashrate Index.
  • Despite rising difficulty, Bitcoin’s hashprice resumed its recovery — at the end of March it stood at $0.08373, and by month-end around $0.078.
  • The hashprice is up about 31% year-to-date, largely offsetting the drop in mining profitability from higher difficulty.
Bitcoin miners’ earnings by month. Data: Glassnode.
Bitcoin miners’ earnings by month. Data: Glassnode.
  • Total miner revenue rose 21% month-on-month to $757.8 million — the highest in ten months.
  • The share of fees in miner revenue rose above 3% for the first time since June 2021. This reflects stronger on-chain activity, as shown by daily transaction counts in the Bitcoin blockchain (the measure reached May 2021 levels). At the same time, Ordinals-related activity in March slowed.
Average fee per BTC and ETH transaction. Data: Coin Metrics.
Average fee per BTC and ETH transaction. Data: Coin Metrics.
  • In the last month the average fee per Bitcoin transaction rose 98% from $1.56 to $3.09. On March 24, the measure peaked at $4.14, a level not seen for a little over a year.
  • The average Ethereum transaction fee remained largely unchanged, hovering above $5. Despite a drop in activity, on March 11 the metric exceeded $16 but quickly returned to balanced levels.

Volume of trades

Trading volume on leading spot exchanges, $ billions.
Trading volume on leading spot exchanges, $ billions. Data: The Block.
  • In March, trading volume on leading platforms rose 8% to $843bn.
  • Despite the elimination of fees on the BTC/USD pair on Binance, activity across the board did not change meaningfully. Platform-wide volume rose amid market activity, reaching $556bn.
  • Most ForkLog-tracked exchanges improved their positions, with Gate.io notably rising from $20bn to $43bn in March.

Futures and options

Bitcoin and Ethereum futures volume, trillions $. Data: Glassnode.
Futures volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum, in trillions. Data: Glassnode.
Options volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum, in billions. Data: Glassnode.
Options volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum, in billions. Data: Glassnode.
  • For the first time since summer 2022, Bitcoin futures volume exceeded $1.3 trillion. The best quarter since last November was also seen for Ethereum-based contracts — $703bn.
  • Options were in demand amid market recovery — $32.1bn for Bitcoin and $14.6bn for Ethereum (figures close to historical highs).
Open interest in Bitcoin futures and options. Data: Coinglass.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures and options. Data: Coinglass.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures and options. Data: Coinglass.
  • Despite elevated activity in Bitcoin futures, open interest has trended lower since late 2023 (from 660,000 BTC in October to 407,000 BTC at the end of March).
  • Meanwhile, the aggregate Bitcoin option open interest reached a record high of 523,000 BTC. The subsequent quarterly expiry pulled the figure back to around 326,000 BTC.

DeFi

Change in the value of assets locked in DeFi sector.
Change in the value of assets locked in the DeFi sector. Data: DeFi Llama.
Top ecosystems by value of locked funds, in $ billions. Data: DeFi Llama
Top ecosystems by value of locked funds, in $ billions. Data: DeFi Llama.
  • In March, TVL in smart contracts of DeFi projects rose 3.5%, to $84.44 billion over the period. At the peak, driven by the Arbitrum ARB airdrop, TVL reached $86.44 billion.
  • In the backdrop of ARB distribution, Layer-2 TVL grew 14% for March. Ethereum remains the undisputed leader, accounting for more than 66% of the total.
Top-20 DeFi coins by market cap. Data: Messari
Top-20 DeFi coins by market capitalization. Data: Messari (as of 01.04.2023).
Top-5 DeFi projects on Ethereum by locked funds value, in $ billions.
Top-5 DeFi projects on Ethereum by locked funds value, in $ billions. Data: DeFi Llama.
  • Most DeFi top-20 assets ended March in the red. MakerDAO (MKR) suffered the worst, down 21%, due in part to the depeg of the platform’s DAI stablecoin following USDC issues.
  • The strongest performer was Solar (SXP), up 94%. The price movement is linked to the migration to its own blockchain and Binance’s support for the token.
  • On Ethereum, Lido remains the leader in TVL for liquid staking. Its TVL rose almost 20% in March, driven by the approaching Shapella hard fork.
TVL by main DeFi sectors. Data: DeFi Llama.
TVL by main categories of DeFi apps. Data: DeFi Llama.
Market cap of popular BTC on Ethereum, in $ billions. Data: Dune Analytics.
Market capitalization of popular BTC on Ethereum, in $ billions. Data: Dune Analytics.
  • Decentralised exchanges continued to dominate the overall DeFi TVL — at the time of writing, they account for about 22% of the total, or $18.69bn.
  • March saw a notable inflow into liquidity-providing DApps — the segment’s TVL rose 15%, with Ethereum accounting for more than 66% of the total.
  • Over the period, the aggregate market cap of “Bitcoin on Ethereum” shrank by almost 10%, to $4.57bn.
Daily transactions in Polygon, Ethereum, BSC and Avalanche ecosystems
Daily transaction counts in the Polygon, Ethereum, Binance Smart Chain and Avalanche ecosystems. Data: Tron, Etherscan, BscScan, Arbiscan.
  • The Tron blockchain remains the leader in on-chain activity. In March the network processed an average of 7.06 million daily transactions, above February’s 6.8 million.
  • The Arbitrum metric rose by 55% — as an L2 solution it processed 955,466 transactions on average, still below Ethereum’s ~1.07 million.
  • Meanwhile, in terms of intraday activity, the network repeatedly outpaced Ethereum’s blockchain in transactions. For example, during the ARB airdrop, transactions exceeded 2.73 million.

DEX and L2

Trading volume on decentralised Ethereum exchanges, $ billions
Trading volume on decentralised Ethereum exchanges, in $ billions. Data: Dune Analytics.
l2-14
TVL in Ethereum Layer-2 protocols. Data: L2BEAT.
  • March saw notable revival in the decentralised exchange segment — trading volume reached $129bn. Of that, Uniswap accounted for $72.8bn, SushiSwap for $17.8bn, and Curve for $17.5bn.
  • This was driven by several factors. In the wake of a successful ARB drop, users redirected substantial liquidity to DeFi and actively used DEXs. The ARB distribution itself also drew funds into protocols.
  • In early March the industry also faced triggers. As noted, the SEC took action against SushiSwap’s leadership, affecting its volumes. Difficulties at the USDC issuer also aided the metric’s rise as investors rushed to exit the asset (stablecoins were in demand in DeFi).

Stablecoins

Market capitalisation of stablecoins, $bn
Market capitalisation of stablecoins, in $bn. Data: Glassnode, Messari.

In March, stablecoins’ market capitalisation slipped to $131bn, influenced by the U.S. banking crisis.

On March 11, the second-largest stablecoin USD Coin (USDC) lost parity with the U.S. dollar due to problems at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which was closed during the banking turmoil. The issuer Circle held $3.3bn in the bank, which were blocked. The company immediately announced plans to use its corporate reserves and external capital to cover the shortfall, but investors did not stop.

Because USDC is actively used in DeFi and as collateral for other assets, a cascading effect followed — decentralised stablecoins DAI and FRAX also lost their dollar pegs. The situation was resolved in favour of SVB clients — authorities announced a rescue, and USDC returned to its $1 target.

Despite the resolution, USDC’s market cap continued to decline, finishing March down by $9.1bn. In contrast, Tether (USDT) grew by $8.7bn.

In March, True USD (TUSD) issuance doubled, supported by Binance (rising from $1bn to $2bn). As Binance gradually exits Binance USD (BUSD), it converted stablecoins into SAFU reserves in TUSD and USDT. Moreover, Binance’s zero-fee trading now operates only in the BTC/TUSD pair.

NFT

Daily NFT marketplace volume, ETH.
Daily NFT marketplace volume, ETH. Data: Dune Analytics.

The Blur marketplace cemented its position as the leading platform in the NFT space, eclipsing OpenSea. In March, daily volumes were on average three times higher.

NFT collection activity.
Activity by NFT collections. Data: Cryptoslam.
NFT sales across blockchains.
NFT sales across blockchains. Data: Cryptoslam.
  • Flagship BAYC collections showed weakness, while premium tokens CryptoPunks drew renewed interest from NFT collectors.
  • Solana ecosystem performed well with DeGods and y00ts delivering strong results.
  • Among blockchains, Polygon, ImmutableX and Arbitrum showed positive momentum.
Bitcoin Ordinals issuance fees. Data: Dune Analytics.
Fees for issuing Bitcoin Ordinals. Data: Dune Analytics.
  • In March, Yuga Labs held an auction for TwelveFold NFT on Bitcoin, raising $16.5m and reaffirming the Bitcoin-Ordinals trend.
  • Ordinals surpassed 700,000 in total, and a peak 13 BTC in protocol fees was paid by March 24. In total, users paid 153 BTC for NFT issuance.
  • PlayStation maker Sony filed a patent for NFT products in 2021. The document describes infrastructure enabling holders to own and transfer NFTs across platforms.
  • According to media, an Amazon NFT marketplace launch is planned for April. Meta, by contrast, rejected pursuit of NFT initiatives.

Activity of major players

Top public companies holding Bitcoin in reserves
Major public companies holding Bitcoin in reserves. Data: Bitcoin Treasuries.
  • One of the largest Bitcoin holders, MicroStrategy, toped up 6,455 BTC between February 16 and March 23, 2023. The total purchase was around $150m, acquired at an average price of $23,238.
  • Marathon Digital Holdings also increased its digital reserves substantially, aided by record mining outputs — averaging 11.4 BTC per day.
  • Riot notably surged due to record mining in 2022 (5,554 BTC — up 46% versus the prior period).
Open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Long and short positions of retail traders (Nonreportable). Data: CFTC.
Long and short positions of retail traders (Nonreportable). Data: CFTC.
  • Open interest (OI) in Bitcoin futures on the CME fell by 5% over the month, but the uptrend remains intact.
  • At month-end the number of long and short positions among large players (Non-Commercial and Commercial) were roughly level, though among retail traders long positions were notably dominant.
Bulls and bears among large CME futures traders and overall player count
Bulls and bears among large CME futures traders and total number of traders. Data: CFTC.
Bulls and bears among large CME futures traders and overall player count
  • The total number of large CME futures traders continued to rise, reaching a record 122 by month-end.
  • The total number of Ethereum futures traders fell to November 2022 levels, yet the figure remains on an upward trajectory.
Open interest in Ethereum futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Open interest in Ethereum futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Position dynamics of large players (Commercial) trading Ethereum futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
Position dynamics of large institutional players (Commercial) trading Ethereum futures on CME. Data: CFTC.
  • Open interest in Ethereum futures on CME was down 37.5% by the end of March, but the upward trend remains intact.
  • Among Commercials with rising edge, longs outnumber shorts, indicating optimism among large market participants ahead of the Shapella upgrade.

Venture rounds

$109m

Ledger hardware wallet developer Ledger raised in a Series C round at a higher valuation — $1.42bn.

$50m

Scroll, Ethereum startup. Reports suggest a valuation of about $1.8bn.

$50m

EigenLayer, the restaking protocol team, in Series A. Company valued at $250m and native tokens at $500m.

$40m

Fetch.ai from DWF Labs. Blockchain startup valued at $250m.

$40m

CCP Games studio developing a blockchain-based game in the EVE universe. Investment round led by Andreessen Horowitz.

$28m

Web3 AI-driven social network OP3N in Series A. Valuation put at $100m.

Regulation

Ukraine

Crypto exchanges halted operations on hryvnia bank cards for Ukrainian users amid the fight against illegal gambling.

USA
  • In the United States, policymakers proposed taxing miners 30% of electricity costs.
  • The U.S. Internal Revenue Service plans to classify NFTs as tangible art and tax accordingly.
France

French authorities adopted new rules for registering crypto companies.

Belarus

Belarus extended tax relief for the Bitcoin industry until 2025.

Denmark

Denmark court explained the principles of taxing profits from Bitcoin.

Thailand

Thailand relaxed tax rules for issuers of investment tokens.

European Union

European Parliament passed a law on digital wallets and will require crypto platforms to comply with AML requirements.

United Kingdom

Bitcoin will be categorized in a separate category on UK tax returns.

Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s financial regulator will hold a meeting between crypto firms and banks, “to foster direct dialogue and knowledge sharing.”

Ukraine

Month’s materials

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