Bloomberg analysts raise odds of a spot Bitcoin ETF this year to 75%

After a legal victory for Grayscale in its case against SEC, Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas assessed the probability of launching a spot Bitcoin ETF by the end of 2023 at 75%.

“James and I raise the odds of launching a spot Bitcoin ETF this year to 75% (95% by the end of 2024). While we had included Grayscale’s win in our previous estimate of 65%, the unanimity and decisiveness of the ruling exceeded expectations, leaving the SEC little room to maneuver,” Balchunas said.

In his view, the regulator’s legal and reputational losses in the widely covered litigation make defiance politically untenable.

The timelines for the SEC to decide on applications to register Bitcoin funds from BlackRock, Bitwise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity и Valkyrie приходятся на начало сентября. Однако аналитики ожидают задержек.

“We wouldn’t be surprised if the SEC drags its feet, given what happened. That said, I’m not sure deadlines will matter in this scenario. More likely, that we wake up one day and hear that the Commission has surrendered and the launch is inevitable,” Balchunas said.

According to Seyffart, rapid approval of the applications after the court’s decision is unlikely.

The SEC has 45 days to request a rehearing. After that period, the court will issue a final ruling.

In Congress, lawmakers again proposed to oust the head of the SEC Gary Gensler following the court decision to convert Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust into an ETF.