BitChat downloads surge by 400,000 amid Iran protests

Odds of the country’s leader being deposed exceeded 50% on Polymarket

Iranian authorities have curtailed internet access amid ongoing mass protests. In response, the community urged residents to use the encrypted BitChat messenger, backed by Jack Dorsey.

The people of Iran can use a very simple app: BITCHAT, that doesn’t need internet connection at all. Just text communication via Bluetooth connection proximity and mesh Bluetooth network. pic.twitter.com/8yz4LBC98m

— Abstract Wine🍷 (@AbstractWine) January 8, 2026

According to Chromestats, downloads jumped by 43,000 in the past day and by 437,900 over the week. The share attributable to Iran is not yet known.

Earlier, the messenger drew strong interest in Nepal and Indonesia amid protests against the ruling authorities.

BitChat does not require an internet connection: each Bluetooth device on the network acts as a client and relay, passing encrypted messages over distances of up to 30 metres.

High-speed internet and communications could also be provided by Elon Musk’s Starlink satellites. Users urged the billionaire to deploy equipment in Iran, which he already did during rallies in June.

Some reports suggest Musk has responded.

In light of the internet shutdown in Iran, Elon Musk opened the Starlink network for free use for protesters.

This happened following an appeal from Deputy Minister Almog Cohen through businessman Dovi Frances.

Musk pledged to keep the network open and prevent attempts at… pic.twitter.com/LswkE9sGNK

— Eli Afriat 🇮🇱🎗 (@EliAfriatISR) January 8, 2026

Odds of Iran’s leader being deposed top 50% on Polymarket

Users of Polymarket put the probability of Ali Khamenei being deposed at 55%. Over the past 24 hours, that figure rose by 20%.

Total stakes have topped $559,000.

The surge was fuelled by mass protests and a warning from US President Donald Trump of possible strikes if demonstrations are violently suppressed. The death toll has already exceeded 45.

In early January, traders put the odds of Khamenei stepping down below 40%.

On a related market with aggregate stakes of $2.5m, the picture is as follows:

Suspicions of insider trading

Earlier, the community criticised Polymarket for refusing to recognise US actions in Venezuela as an “invasion”. Turnover in the disputed contract reached $10.5m.

Another flashpoint was alleged insider trading. One user made more than $400,000, with the account created only days before the US special operation.

The episode drew official attention: Congressman Ritchie Torres proposed a bill to bar insiders from trading on prediction markets.

At the time of writing, the user’s profile was unavailable. It remains unclear whether it was deactivated by the Polymarket team or the trader deleted the account.

Meanwhile, analysts at Lookonchain flagged suspicious activity around another market that prices the odds of US strikes on Iran.

Insiders are betting on the Polymarket that “US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026”.

4 newly created wallets simultaneously placed bets that “US strikes Iran by Jan 31, 2026” when the change was below 18%, and haven’t made any other bets.

Do they know something?… pic.twitter.com/gP6a3kpcoc

— Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 8, 2026

Four newly created wallets bet on “Yes” when odds were at 18%. According to experts, those addresses showed no other trading activity on the platform.

However, users found an inaccuracy in Lookonchain’s account: one of the cited addresses does have a history on Polymarket. It previously took part in memecoin-related markets.

In late December, Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley called bitcoin a salvation from economic collapse in Iran.