K33 Dismisses 80% Bitcoin Decline from Peak

K33 Research dismisses the likelihood of an 80% Bitcoin decline from its peak.

Despite recent price trends showing an “alarming similarity” to the sell-offs of 2018 and 2022, a deep 80% decline from the peaks is unlikely, according to a report by K33 Research analyst Vetle Lunde.

Bitcoin has fallen approximately 40% from its October 2025 highs of around $126,000. Over the past week alone, amid heightened global risk aversion, the asset lost 11%, the expert noted.

This market scenario might evoke associations with previous deep corrections within four-year cycles. Lunde believes the current situation differs from past significant declines due to institutional adoption, regulated product inflows, and easing interest rates.

However, concerns about a cycle repetition could become self-fulfilling, the analyst warned. Currently, long-term holders are reducing positions to lock in some profits, while new capital hesitates to enter the market, thus increasing selling pressure.

Even in this environment, K33 does not anticipate a deep correction akin to past bear markets. This is supported by positive macro fundamentals and the absence of “dangerous” players like FTX or Terra.

Is the Bottom Nearing? 

Meanwhile, several indicators traditionally associated with market bottoms have begun to emerge. On February 2, the percentile of Bitcoin’s spot trading volume exceeded 90 at over $8 billion. Simultaneously, following a wave of long position liquidations in derivatives markets, open interest and funding rates fell into a highly negative zone.

The combination of these factors has historically coincided with trend reversals, Lunde explained. However, the signals are not definitive: similar extreme values were observed during “false” rallies and mid-cycle pauses.

According to the expert’s calculations, a critically important support zone is around $74,000. A break below this level could accelerate a downward move towards the November 2021 peak of approximately $69,000. In the longer term, a retreat may continue towards the 200-week moving average near $58,000.

“We will react quickly if the current support level is breached, but we do not expect a repeat of the 2018 or 2022 situation. Instead, we view current prices as attractive entry levels for any investor with a long-term approach,” Lunde emphasized.

Earlier, analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin’s weekly chart had fallen below the 100-WEMA. Previously, this signal preceded a significant decline.