Analyst Highlights Reduced Likelihood of Deep Bitcoin Correction

2024 crypto rally less significant than previous cycles, reducing deep bear market likelihood.

The cryptocurrency market rally in 2024 has been less pronounced than in previous cycles. Considering this, the likelihood of a deep bear market is also reduced, according to MN Trading founder Michaël van de Poppe.

This is a funny chart.

The previous bull run in 2024 on #Bitcoin has been significantly shallow.

It means that we haven’t seen the upside volatility that we almost always get: heavy upwards returns and a parabolic curve.

Given that we haven’t seen that, the likelihood of a… pic.twitter.com/v2aLfLkLip

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) March 7, 2026

According to him, the recent bull phase did not witness a sharp rise in Bitcoin’s price, accompanied by “high returns and parabolic curves on the charts.”

“Since all indicators are currently at their lows, now is indeed a great time to take a bullish position and expect markets to shift to a positive trend over the next 12-24 months,” added van de Poppe.

According to the analyst known as Darkfrost, amid increased volatility in recent weeks, some market participants “remain calm and simply observe.”

📊 While volatility is in full swing across the markets and everyone seems to be reacting, some participants remain calm and simply observe.

According to Coin Value Days Destroyed, long term holders (LTHs) have become very inactive and appear to prefer holding their Bitcoin… pic.twitter.com/oCjG6qhwlf

— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) March 7, 2026

The Coin Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric indicates that long-term holders (LTH) have become extremely inactive and prefer to hold rather than sell Bitcoin.

“Like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD), which measures the number of days coins are held, CVDD adds a value component to the formula. This allows assessing whether LTH activity has a significant impact on the market,” explained the expert.

With the current CVDD value around 0.34, the value spent by long-term holders is comparable to bear market levels. During downturns, this category of investors prefers a HODL strategy.

According to Darkfrost’s observations, local peaks formed during the last cycle when CVDD exceeded 2 — a level reflecting significant sales by LTH.

Key Level

Alphractal founder Joao Wedson believes it is crucial for the leading cryptocurrency to maintain the $63,700 level.

Bitcoin cannot lose $63,700 ⚠️

If this key on-chain level breaks, it could trigger a new downside move in the market.

The next risk levels would be:

• $57,000
• $52,400
• $48,700 (worst-case scenario)

It is important to note that these levels are dynamic and update daily,… pic.twitter.com/nnMojP9PqZ

— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) March 7, 2026

If this mark fails, Bitcoin risks falling further. The analyst calculated the following critical Fibonacci indicators:

• $57,000;
• $52,400;
• $48,700 (worst-case scenario).

“These values are dynamic and update daily, adjusting based on investor behavior. When the market loses key structural levels, it often marks the beginning of a new phase of redistribution,” added Wedson.

Analyst Willy Woo emphasized that despite Bitcoin’s local deviation from $70,000, investor inflows have been steadily recovering since mid-February. 

Simultaneously, expected volatility (VIX) in the stock market hints at a shift to a “risk-on” strategy in the coming weeks.

“Bitcoin fell too quickly, considering the early stage of the bear market and current conditions,” noted Woo.

The expert believes the crypto market will resume growth by the end of April, but this depends on liquidity inflows. 

As reported by CryptoQuant, the rise of Bitcoin to $74,000 was considered a short-term rebound, not the start of a new bull market.