Bitfinex Analysts Identify Oil Prices as Key Driver for Bitcoin’s Course

Bitcoin's path depends on oil prices, bond yields, and Fed policies.

The future trajectory of the leading cryptocurrency hinges on oil prices, bond yields, and the policies of the Fed. Developments within the crypto industry have taken a back seat, stated Bitfinex experts.

Following significant liquidations in February, when the coin’s price fell from $79,000 to $60,000, leverage in the derivatives market sharply decreased. Bitcoin shifted from a correction to macroeconomic consolidation, with its prices now governed by global liquidity.

The recent rise of the asset to $72,000 led to the liquidation of short positions exceeding $100 million. However, the overall picture remains unchanged—external factors continue to restrain the market.

Impact of Oil

In just three weeks, oil prices surged by 80%, briefly exceeding $100 per barrel. Expensive energy resources are fueling inflation, forcing central banks to delay reducing interest rates. Credit conditions remain tight, the dollar strengthens, and free liquidity volumes decline.

According to experts, the leading cryptocurrency now correlates with tech stocks rather than safe-haven assets. At 21Shares, it was noted that expensive energy is depleting historically low American savings, increasing pressure on the US economy and risky assets.

Market Stabilization

Despite macroeconomic threats, a balance is forming in the crypto industry. Large investors continue to accumulate coins, absorbing sales from retail traders.

Spot bitcoin-ETFs consistently attract capital. On March 9, net inflows into these instruments amounted to $167 million, with $109 million going to BlackRock’s IBIT fund. Experts identified these flows as the main indicator of institutional sentiment.

The technical outlook confirms a consolidation phase. Structural support is at $60,000, with a local resistance zone between $70,000 and $72,000. A breakthrough of the $78,000 level could initiate a new bull market phase.

If ETF inflows persist and the macroeconomic backdrop remains neutral, the asset is likely to gradually stabilize above $70,000. However, should inflation surge again due to high oil prices, the coin risks returning to $60,000 before the onset of a new rally.

Earlier, on March 9, an analyst known as Darkfost described the rise in oil prices as an unfavorable factor for bitcoin.