The Bitcoin rally that began on May 19 continued—on May 22 the leading cryptocurrency set a new all-time high at $111,880.
At the time of writing, the asset trades at $111,317, according to CoinGecko.
ForkLog asked experts which factors could fuel further gains, where Bitcoin’s price ceiling might lie at this stage, and why.
Bitcoin Pizza Day or whales at work?
According to independent researcher Sergey Gustun, there are two plausible drivers of the current Bitcoin pump. The most obvious is that “the Fed once again failed to sell its own debts” and investors shifted funds into cryptocurrency and gold.
“And a less obvious factor, but very much a crypto one, is simply that, ahead of Pizza Day, they decided to play with the market,” Gustun said.
Wallet’s commercial director Alex Kruglov argues that the global normalisation of cryptocurrencies in the legal domain is drawing ever more institutional investors into the industry.
“In addition, the positive influence of the new US administration on this process is accelerating the growth dynamic. And an unstable geopolitical environment is prompting more people to put money into defensive assets such as gold and Bitcoin,” he said.
CryptoDed Konstantin Koshelev also highlighted three reasons pushing the price higher:
- further buying by whales and retail investors amid hype;
- the Strategy effect, which “bet on BTC and won”;
- sovereign purchases to build a Bitcoin reserve.
“One would like to believe there is no ceiling [for Bitcoin’s price at this stage],” Koshelev added.
He was backed by Technobit CEO Alexander Peresichan.
“Bitcoin has no limit to its price growth. Crypto-natives joke that as long as central banks print fiat with abandon, nothing will stop BTC’s exchange rate. Over time, more and more people are viewing Bitcoin as a savings instrument. BTC has no rivals on returns. Its volatility has been falling over the years, which makes it even more attractive to investors. And the legitimisation of cryptocurrencies—something for which you can in many ways say ‘thank you’ to [US president Donald] Trump and his crypto reserve—makes BTC even prettier,” he argued.
In his view, several factors could support further gains. First, a cut in the Fed’s key rate, which Trump is actively lobbying for. That would boost the investment appeal of high-risk crypto, Peresichan says.
Second, money-printing—and the already realised growth in global liquidity—has embedded upside potential for Bitcoin in the near term.
“Crypto mirrors moves in global liquidity with a lag of a couple of months. Overlaying BTC charts with M2 lets you see the presumed trajectory of the cryptocurrency’s price. So as long as central banks keep printing money, investors will choose Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation,” the speaker notes.
Third, the supply of the first cryptocurrency on exchanges is near a minimum. The halving in spring 2024 is making itself felt. According to Peresichan, BTC supply is shrinking while institutions are buying in volumes that exceed the pace of new coin issuance.
“BTC continues to move in cycles, despite shouts from some analysts that Bitcoin’s cyclicality theory no longer works. If we are to talk about potential highs, the target for this cycle could be around $150,000. The figure reflects the presumed trajectory of the cryptocurrency’s rise based on past cycles. That height can be reached in the absence of obvious shocks,” he said.
No FOMO as a positive factor
Hype could carry Bitcoin to $180,000, says ENCRY Foundation co-founder Roman Nekrasov.
“For now there is no FOMO in the market. But once the fear of missing out arrives, a parabolic rise is possible. A conservative scenario would be a push to $150,000. Sooner or later the market will reach saturation,” he noted.
At the same time, “Trump’s whims” in the form of continued tariff wars could lock in a cyclical peak around $120,000.
“Although this scenario is unlikely. Markets have already weathered plenty of shocks thanks to the US leader. Judging by Trump’s statements, the worst is behind us. The politician openly urged market participants to buy the dips,” Nekrasov said.
The continuation of Bitcoin’s uptrend depends on big investors: there have been hefty inflows into ETFs over the past two days, and JPMorgan has allowed more than 90m of its clients to invest in Bitcoin.
The analyst also drew attention to unchecked money-printing by central banks, against which Bitcoin remains “an attractive tool for storing savings.”
“And let’s not forget the likely imminent cut in the Fed’s key rate. The changes will reduce the yields on dollar instruments. Investors will start looking for alternatives. Many will find the answer in crypto. Let me remind you, BTC issuance, unlike the dollar’s, cannot be changed,” Nekrasov concluded.
As the price climbs, retail investors will follow institutions into the first cryptocurrency, noted ERGO founder Alexander Chepurnoy. He expects resistance at the psychological levels of $150,000 and $200,000.
“It is hard to say where the ceiling will be right now, because the four-year cycle—even with a shift—has yet to show itself, and the ceiling depends on the amount of fiat at the moment of peak interest, which is impossible to predict at present,” he said.
CoinsPaid CEO Max Krupyshev expects further gains on the back of a positive newsflow in the US and support for the technology from leaders in other countries.
“I don’t think we will just shoot straight to $200,000, but $130,000 looks quite realistic,” the expert added.
“Growth through the week.” What next?
Trader and author of the Telegram channel @C0enplus Vladimir Koen pointed to an atypical start to the current rally. He said growth began on the night of Monday, May 19, European time, when Asian equities opened, even though this year Asia has more often opened down with a hefty correction. In addition, on May 22 Bitcoin notched several all-time highs after US markets had closed.
“In other words, there is clearly activity from Asian players; they have joined the game. And the amounts of free capital there are no smaller than on the American market, so one can expect support from them and further growth during this week,” the expert explained.
As additional confirmation, he pointed to yet another decoupling of Bitcoin’s price from US stock indices, which on May 21 “fell significantly by minus 1.5–2%.”
“Against that backdrop BTC and many cryptocurrencies rose. A similar sharp decline in US equities occurred in April. Overall, you can’t say this decoupling has gone away—it is temporary—but it once again confirms the formation of an independent crypto market,” Koen is convinced.
The expert noted that the main fuel for the industry still comes from US institutions, including strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs (more than $1bn this week) and Michael Saylor’s continued buying. At the same time, according to Koen, Strategy’s shares have stopped correlating closely and outpacing Bitcoin’s growth. Hence there is a consensus on Wall Street that they are overvalued.
“The all-time high for Strategy’s shares was around $550 in 2024 when Bitcoin was much lower; now they trade below $420. Inflows into them may slow a bit and Saylor will have less cash to buy, but I am sure he will now send everything precisely into buying BTC to support the rise. Until now this scheme has worked, plus he had a decent arbitrage, which gave him extra profit,” the trader concluded.
On the back of institutional inflows, the expert expects the first cryptocurrency to keep rising this week. As an example he pointed to the highest trading volume in three months at BlackRock. However, if the trend shifts towards the end of the week, May 23–24, the drop could be quite swift.
“The technical targets I see for the next leg up are $114,000–116,000. This is quite likely: if there is a strong impulse and support today from US data on unemployment and prices and stocks go up, we will see another wave higher in BTC. After that there will be some stabilisation. If media headlines hype levels of $120,000–125,000, we will only reach them after a pullback,” Koen forecasts.
Despite the current positive trend, the expert recalled the patterns and scenarios of this season, under which Bitcoin is bound to stabilise. First and foremost they are tied to margin positions, on which Chinese exchanges earn far more than on fees, as well as to behavioural reactions by traders, including large ones.
“There will be a lot of longs, especially if we clear $115,000, and then we will see mass liquidations and a move by BTC to $100,000 or even lower, since there are very large stop volumes on the spot market at that level. If there is a long squeeze from $115,000, that is roughly $95,000,” he added.
Earlier, CryptoQuant analysts saw signs of a new bullish impulse in an on-chain indicator for Bitcoin.
Earlier, Standard Chartered urged buying the leading cryptocurrency and forecast an increase to $120,000 in the second quarter.